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An investigation on deep learning and wavelet transform to nowcast wind power and wind power ramp: A case study in Brazil and Uruguay

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  • Zucatelli, P.J.
  • Nascimento, E.G.S.
  • Santos, A.Á.B.
  • Arce, A.M.G.
  • Moreira, D.M.

Abstract

Large variations in wind energy production over a period of minutes to hours is a challenge for electricity balancing authorities. The use of reliable tools for the prediction of wind power and wind power ramp events is essential for the operator of the electrical system. The main objective of this work is to analyze the wind power and wind power ramp forecasting at Brazil and Uruguay. To achieve this goal the wavelet decomposition applying 48 different mother wavelet functions and deep learning techniques are used. The recurrent neural network was trained to perform the forecasting of 1 h ahead, and then, using it, the trained network was applied to recursively infer the forecasting for the next hours of the wind speed. After this computational procedure, the wind power and the wind power ramp were predicted. The results showed good accuracy and can be used as a tool to help national grid operators for the energy supply. The wavelet discrete Meyer family (dmey) demonstrates greater precision in the decomposition of the wind speed signals. Therefore, it is proven that the wavelet dmey is the most accurate in the decomposition of temporal wind signals, whether using signals from tropical or subtropical regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Zucatelli, P.J. & Nascimento, E.G.S. & Santos, A.Á.B. & Arce, A.M.G. & Moreira, D.M., 2021. "An investigation on deep learning and wavelet transform to nowcast wind power and wind power ramp: A case study in Brazil and Uruguay," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:230:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221010902
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120842
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    Cited by:

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    3. Shijun Wang & Chun Liu & Kui Liang & Ziyun Cheng & Xue Kong & Shuang Gao, 2022. "Wind Speed Prediction Model Based on Improved VMD and Sudden Change of Wind Speed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Hu, Jianming & Zhang, Liping & Tang, Jingwei & Liu, Zhi, 2023. "A novel transformer ordinal regression network with label diversity for wind power ramp events forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    5. Guglielmo D’Amico & Filippo Petroni & Salvatore Vergine, 2022. "Ramp Rate Limitation of Wind Power: An Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-15, August.
    6. Wadim Strielkowski & Andrey Vlasov & Kirill Selivanov & Konstantin Muraviev & Vadim Shakhnov, 2023. "Prospects and Challenges of the Machine Learning and Data-Driven Methods for the Predictive Analysis of Power Systems: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-31, May.
    7. Perini de Souza, Noele Bissoli & Sperandio Nascimento, Erick Giovani & Bandeira Santos, Alex Alisson & Moreira, Davidson Martins, 2022. "Wind mapping using the mesoscale WRF model in a tropical region of Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
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