IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v127y2020ics1364032120301507.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of offshore wind farm power using a novel two-stage model combining kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model with a multi-objective grey wolf optimizer

Author

Listed:
  • Lu, Hongfang
  • Ma, Xin
  • Huang, Kun
  • Azimi, Mohammadamin

Abstract

The development of the wind power market has led various countries to begin shifting the construction of wind farms from land to offshore. Accurately predicting the short-term wind power of an offshore wind farm is significant for preventive control and scheduling. This paper proposes a novel two-stage hybrid model to predict short-term wind power. First, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise is used to preprocess the raw data and make it smoother. Second, an improved grey-box model is utilized to predict the wind power, where a multi-objective grey wolf optimizer is used to optimize the kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model to ensure both prediction stability and accuracy. The historical wind power data for offshore wind farms in Belgium are taken as a case study, and the results indicate that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy and stability than those of six benchmark models. Three critical issues related to this work are also considered. The following conclusions are reached: (1) Utilizing a denoising method and multi-objective optimizer effectively improves the prediction accuracy and stability of the original model. Specifically, the multi-objective optimizer improves the prediction performance; (2) The proposed model performs best at predicting wind power in autumn; (3) Because of the great variation in dimensions for the wind power time series, the mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared percentage error are not suitable as error evaluation indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Huang, Kun & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "Prediction of offshore wind farm power using a novel two-stage model combining kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model with a multi-objective grey wolf optimizer," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:127:y:2020:i:c:s1364032120301507
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.109856
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032120301507
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2020.109856?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cao, Jian & Li, Zhi & Li, Jian, 2019. "Financial time series forecasting model based on CEEMDAN and LSTM," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 519(C), pages 127-139.
    2. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    3. Dhiman, Harsh S. & Deb, Dipankar & Guerrero, Josep M., 2019. "Hybrid machine intelligent SVR variants for wind forecasting and ramp events," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 369-379.
    4. Deepak Gupta & Mahardhika Pratama & Zhenyuan Ma & Jun Li & Mukesh Prasad, 2019. "Financial time series forecasting using twin support vector regression," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Qu, Zongxi & Mao, Wenqian & Zhang, Kequan & Zhang, Wenyu & Li, Zhipeng, 2019. "Multi-step wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid decomposition technique and an improved back-propagation neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 919-929.
    6. Lahouar, A. & Ben Hadj Slama, J., 2017. "Hour-ahead wind power forecast based on random forests," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 529-541.
    7. Prósper, Miguel A. & Otero-Casal, Carlos & Fernández, Felipe Canoura & Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo, 2019. "Wind power forecasting for a real onshore wind farm on complex terrain using WRF high resolution simulations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 674-686.
    8. Li, Yanfei & Shi, Huipeng & Han, Fengze & Duan, Zhu & Liu, Hui, 2019. "Smart wind speed forecasting approach using various boosting algorithms, big multi-step forecasting strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 540-553.
    9. Zhao, Jing & Wang, Jianzhou & Guo, Zhenhai & Guo, Yanling & Lin, Wantao & Lin, Yihua, 2019. "Multi-step wind speed forecasting based on numerical simulations and an optimized stochastic ensemble method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    10. Tian, Chengshi & Hao, Yan & Hu, Jianming, 2018. "A novel wind speed forecasting system based on hybrid data preprocessing and multi-objective optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 301-319.
    11. Benali, L. & Notton, G. & Fouilloy, A. & Voyant, C. & Dizene, R., 2019. "Solar radiation forecasting using artificial neural network and random forest methods: Application to normal beam, horizontal diffuse and global components," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 871-884.
    12. Li, Hongmin & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai, 2018. "Research and application of a combined model based on variable weight for short term wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 669-684.
    13. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "US natural gas consumption prediction using an improved kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    14. Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Chen, Niya, 2019. "A review and discussion of decomposition-based hybrid models for wind energy forecasting applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 939-953.
    15. Jiang, Ping & Yang, Hufang & Heng, Jiani, 2019. "A hybrid forecasting system based on fuzzy time series and multi-objective optimization for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 786-801.
    16. Kim, Deockho & Hur, Jin, 2018. "Short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind energy resources using the enhanced ensemble method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 211-226.
    17. Song, Jingjing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A novel combined model based on advanced optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 643-658.
    18. Altan, Aytaç & Karasu, Seçkin & Bekiros, Stelios, 2019. "Digital currency forecasting with chaotic meta-heuristic bio-inspired signal processing techniques," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 325-336.
    19. Li, Chen & Zhu, Zhijie & Yang, Hufang & Li, Ranran, 2019. "An innovative hybrid system for wind speed forecasting based on fuzzy preprocessing scheme and multi-objective optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1219-1237.
    20. Hong, Ying-Yi & Rioflorido, Christian Lian Paulo P., 2019. "A hybrid deep learning-based neural network for 24-h ahead wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 530-539.
    21. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied in wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 87-100.
    22. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A combination forecasting approach applied in multistep wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1108-1125.
    23. Dai, Juchuan & Yang, Xin & Wen, Li, 2018. "Development of wind power industry in China: A comprehensive assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 156-164.
    24. Ma, Xin & Mei, Xie & Wu, Wenqing & Wu, Xinxing & Zeng, Bo, 2019. "A novel fractional time delayed grey model with Grey Wolf Optimizer and its applications in forecasting the natural gas and coal consumption in Chongqing China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 487-507.
    25. Chen, Shuixia & Wang, Jian-qiang & Zhang, Hong-yu, 2019. "A hybrid PSO-SVM model based on clustering algorithm for short-term atmospheric pollutant concentration forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 41-54.
    26. Wu, Chunying & Wang, Jianzhou & Chen, Xuejun & Du, Pei & Yang, Wendong, 2020. "A novel hybrid system based on multi-objective optimization for wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 149-165.
    27. Hao, Yan & Tian, Chengshi, 2019. "A novel two-stage forecasting model based on error factor and ensemble method for multi-step wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 368-383.
    28. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    29. deCastro, M. & Salvador, S. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Sanz-Larruga, F.J. & Gimeno, L., 2019. "Europe, China and the United States: Three different approaches to the development of offshore wind energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 55-70.
    30. Jianzhou Wang & Chunying Wu & Tong Niu, 2019. "A Novel System for Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Multi-Objective Optimization and Echo State Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, January.
    31. Agrawal, Rahul Kumar & Muchahary, Frankle & Tripathi, Madan Mohan, 2019. "Ensemble of relevance vector machines and boosted trees for electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 540-548.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bowen Zhou & Zhibo Zhang & Guangdi Li & Dongsheng Yang & Matilde Santos, 2023. "Review of Key Technologies for Offshore Floating Wind Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Zhang, Wanying & He, Yaoyao & Yang, Shanlin, 2023. "A multi-step probability density prediction model based on gaussian approximation of quantiles for offshore wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 992-1011.
    3. Du, Jian & Zheng, Jianqin & Liang, Yongtu & Xu, Ning & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Wang, Bohong & Liao, Qi & Varbanov, Petar Sabev & Shahzad, Khurram & Ali, Arshid Mahmood, 2023. "Deeppipe: A two-stage physics-informed neural network for predicting mixed oil concentration distribution," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    4. Lu, Hongfang & Cheng, Feifei & Ma, Xin & Hu, Gang, 2020. "Short-term prediction of building energy consumption employing an improved extreme gradient boosting model: A case study of an intake tower," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    5. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Ma, Minda, 2021. "A hybrid multi-objective optimizer-based model for daily electricity demand prediction considering COVID-19," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    6. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    7. Zhu, Qiannan & Jiang, Feng & Li, Chaoshun, 2023. "Time-varying interval prediction and decision-making for short-term wind power using convolutional gated recurrent unit and multi-objective elephant clan optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    8. Xu, Bin, 2023. "Exploring the sustainable growth pathway of wind power in China: Using the semiparametric regression model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    2. Liu, Zhenkun & Jiang, Ping & Zhang, Lifang & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "A combined forecasting model for time series: Application to short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    3. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    4. Shang, Zhihao & He, Zhaoshuang & Chen, Yao & Chen, Yanhua & Xu, MingLiang, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting system based on multivariate time series and multi-objective optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    5. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu & Chen, Chao, 2020. "Wind speed big data forecasting using time-variant multi-resolution ensemble model with clustering auto-encoder," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    6. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu, 2020. "A vanishing moment ensemble model for wind speed multi-step prediction with multi-objective base model selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    7. Jin, Huaiping & Shi, Lixian & Chen, Xiangguang & Qian, Bin & Yang, Biao & Jin, Huaikang, 2021. "Probabilistic wind power forecasting using selective ensemble of finite mixture Gaussian process regression models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-18.
    8. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    9. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    10. Liu, Hui & Yang, Rui & Wang, Tiantian & Zhang, Lei, 2021. "A hybrid neural network model for short-term wind speed forecasting based on decomposition, multi-learner ensemble, and adaptive multiple error corrections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1), pages 573-594.
    11. Zhang, Jinliang & Wei, Yiming & Tan, Zhongfu, 2020. "An adaptive hybrid model for short term wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    12. da Silva, Ramon Gomes & Ribeiro, Matheus Henrique Dal Molin & Moreno, Sinvaldo Rodrigues & Mariani, Viviana Cocco & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos, 2021. "A novel decomposition-ensemble learning framework for multi-step ahead wind energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    13. Yang, Wendong & Sun, Shaolong & Hao, Yan & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "A novel machine learning-based electricity price forecasting model based on optimal model selection strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    14. Yingya Zhou & Linwei Ma & Weidou Ni & Colin Yu, 2023. "Data Enrichment as a Method of Data Preprocessing to Enhance Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Liu, Xingdou & Zhang, Li & Wang, Jiangong & Zhou, Yue & Gan, Wei, 2023. "A unified multi-step wind speed forecasting framework based on numerical weather prediction grids and wind farm monitoring data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 948-963.
    16. Li, Dan & Jiang, Fuxin & Chen, Min & Qian, Tao, 2022. "Multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid decomposition method and temporal convolutional networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    17. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    18. Jiang, Ping & Liu, Zhenkun & Niu, Xinsong & Zhang, Lifang, 2021. "A combined forecasting system based on statistical method, artificial neural networks, and deep learning methods for short-term wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    19. Nathan Oaks Farrar & Mohd Hasan Ali & Dipankar Dasgupta, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Grid Connected Wind Turbine Control Systems: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-25, February.
    20. Yechi Zhang & Jianzhou Wang & Haiyan Lu, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Combined Model Based on Multiobjective Optimization for Multistep-Ahead Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-27, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:127:y:2020:i:c:s1364032120301507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.