IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v244y2025ics0960148125003155.html

A point-interval wind speed prediction model based on entropy clustering and hybrid optimization weighted strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Jujie
  • Shu, Shuqin
  • Xu, Shulian

Abstract

Wind speed prediction is crucial for effective energy management, power dispatching, and optimizing wind energy conversion systems. However, its inherent randomness and instability pose significant challenges. This paper introduces a wind speed prediction method that enhances accuracy through entropy clustering and a hybrid optimization weighted strategy. Firstly, the training set is decomposed and reconstituted into multiple feature subsequences by the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN). Secondly, the internal relationship between the training set and these subsequences is constructed through the gated recurrent unit (GRU). To prevent information leakage, this relationship is mapped to the testing set. Based on the characteristics of each subsequence, the optimal prediction model is selected. Finally, chaos game optimization (CGO) is used to weighted integrate the prediction results of each model to obtain the final point and interval prediction results. The proposed method is evaluated using data from six Chinese wind farms located in diverse geographical areas. Compared with other models, the mean squared error (MSE) of the proposed method on the six datasets is 0.882 m/s, 0.507 m/s, 0.174 m/s, 0.197 m/s, 0.362 m/s and 0.322 m/s, respectively. This fully proves its effectiveness and broad application prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jujie & Shu, Shuqin & Xu, Shulian, 2025. "A point-interval wind speed prediction model based on entropy clustering and hybrid optimization weighted strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:244:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125003155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.122653
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148125003155
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2025.122653?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cai, Haoshu & Jia, Xiaodong & Feng, Jianshe & Li, Wenzhe & Hsu, Yuan-Ming & Lee, Jay, 2020. "Gaussian Process Regression for numerical wind speed prediction enhancement," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 2112-2123.
    2. Li, Yiman & Peng, Tian & Zhang, Chu & Sun, Wei & Hua, Lei & Ji, Chunlei & Muhammad Shahzad, Nazir, 2022. "Multi-step ahead wind speed forecasting approach coupling maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform, improved grey wolf optimization algorithm and long short-term memory," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 1115-1126.
    3. Wang, Yuanyuan & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Ge & Dong, Yao, 2012. "Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 284-294.
    4. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A combination forecasting approach applied in multistep wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1108-1125.
    5. Becker, Raik & Thrän, Daniela, 2017. "Completion of wind turbine data sets for wind integration studies applying random forests and k-nearest neighbors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 252-262.
    6. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    7. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Gao, Tian & Wang, Keke & Sun, Lijie & Li, Mingyu & Xu, Xiaomin, 2023. "A novel framework for ultra-short-term interval wind power prediction based on RF-WOA-VMD and BiGRU optimized by the attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Zucatelli, P.J. & Nascimento, E.G.S. & Santos, A.Á.B. & Arce, A.M.G. & Moreira, D.M., 2021. "An investigation on deep learning and wavelet transform to nowcast wind power and wind power ramp: A case study in Brazil and Uruguay," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    9. Liu, Tianhong & Qi, Shengli & Qiao, Xianzhu & Liu, Sixing, 2024. "A hybrid short-term wind power point-interval prediction model based on combination of improved preprocessing methods and entropy weighted GRU quantile regression network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    10. Zhang, Chu & Ji, Chunlei & Hua, Lei & Ma, Huixin & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad & Peng, Tian, 2022. "Evolutionary quantile regression gated recurrent unit network based on variational mode decomposition, improved whale optimization algorithm for probabilistic short-term wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 668-682.
    11. He, Yaoyao & Wang, Yun & Wang, Shuo & Yao, Xin, 2022. "A cooperative ensemble method for multistep wind speed probabilistic forecasting," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    12. Hou, Guolian & Wang, Junjie & Fan, Yuzhen, 2024. "Multistep short-term wind power forecasting model based on secondary decomposition, the kernel principal component analysis, an enhanced arithmetic optimization algorithm, and error correction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    13. Li, Ranran & Jin, Yu, 2018. "A wind speed interval prediction system based on multi-objective optimization for machine learning method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2207-2220.
    14. Sun, Wei & Huang, Chenchen, 2020. "A novel carbon price prediction model combines the secondary decomposition algorithm and the long short-term memory network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    15. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Liang, Xi-feng & Li, Yan-fei, 2015. "Wind speed forecasting approach using secondary decomposition algorithm and Elman neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 183-194.
    16. Cho, Haeran & Kirch, Claudia, 2022. "Bootstrap confidence intervals for multiple change points based on moving sum procedures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    17. Duan, Jikai & Chang, Mingheng & Chen, Xiangyue & Wang, Wenpeng & Zuo, Hongchao & Bai, Yulong & Chen, Bolong, 2022. "A combined short-term wind speed forecasting model based on CNN–RNN and linear regression optimization considering error," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 788-808.
    18. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied in wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 87-100.
    19. Zhang, Shuai & Chen, Yong & Xiao, Jiuhong & Zhang, Wenyu & Feng, Ruijun, 2021. "Hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on multivariate data secondary decomposition approach and deep learning algorithm with attention mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 688-704.
    20. Liu, Hui & Mi, Xiwei & Li, Yanfei & Duan, Zhu & Xu, Yinan, 2019. "Smart wind speed deep learning based multi-step forecasting model using singular spectrum analysis, convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit network and Support Vector Regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 842-854.
    21. Zhang, Jinhua & Yan, Jie & Infield, David & Liu, Yongqian & Lien, Fue-sang, 2019. "Short-term forecasting and uncertainty analysis of wind turbine power based on long short-term memory network and Gaussian mixture model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 229-244.
    22. Li, Jiale & Song, Zihao & Wang, Xuefei & Wang, Yanru & Jia, Yaya, 2022. "A novel offshore wind farm typhoon wind speed prediction model based on PSO–Bi-LSTM improved by VMD," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Weiyi & Wang, Jujie & Shu, Shuqin & He, Xuecheng, 2026. "An enhanced differential learning wind speed interval-value prediction system based on optimal collaborative interval decomposition and strategic model selection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PB).
    2. Qingquan Lv & Jialin Zhang & Jianmei Zhang & Zhenzhen Zhang & Qiang Zhou & Pengfei Gao & Haozhe Zhang, 2025. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Model Based on PSO-CNN-LSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Jiang, Wei & Lu, Qi & Xu, Yanhe & Chen, Zhong & Gong, Ting, 2025. "Short-term wind speed prediction based on denoising algorithm of enhanced successive variational mode decomposition and integrated parallel prediction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    2. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Multi-objective data-ensemble wind speed forecasting model with stacked sparse autoencoder and adaptive decomposition-based error correction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    3. Wang, Yun & Zhang, Fan & Kou, Hongbo & Zou, Runmin & Hu, Qinghua & Wang, Jianzhou & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2025. "A review of predictive uncertainty modeling techniques and evaluation metrics in probabilistic wind speed and wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 396(C).
    4. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    5. Wu, Jie & Li, Na & Zhao, Yan & Wang, Jujie, 2022. "Usage of correlation analysis and hypothesis test in optimizing the gated recurrent unit network for wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    6. Liang, Yang & Zhang, Dongqin & Zhang, Jize & Hu, Gang, 2024. "A state-of-the-art analysis on decomposition method for short-term wind speed forecasting using LSTM and a novel hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    7. Nathan Oaks Farrar & Mohd Hasan Ali & Dipankar Dasgupta, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Grid Connected Wind Turbine Control Systems: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-25, February.
    8. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu, 2020. "A vanishing moment ensemble model for wind speed multi-step prediction with multi-objective base model selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    9. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    10. Yechi Zhang & Jianzhou Wang & Haiyan Lu, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Combined Model Based on Multiobjective Optimization for Multistep-Ahead Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-27, May.
    11. Wang, Jujie & Liu, Yafen & Li, Yaning, 2024. "A parallel differential learning ensemble framework based on enhanced feature extraction and anti-information leakage mechanism for ultra-short-term wind speed forecast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 361(C).
    12. Zhou, Qingguo & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Gaofeng, 2019. "Hybrid forecasting system based on an optimal model selection strategy for different wind speed forecasting problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1559-1580.
    13. Moreno, Sinvaldo Rodrigues & Mariani, Viviana Cocco & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos, 2021. "Hybrid multi-stage decomposition with parametric model applied to wind speed forecasting in Brazilian Northeast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1508-1526.
    14. Liu, Zhenkun & Jiang, Ping & Zhang, Lifang & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "A combined forecasting model for time series: Application to short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    15. Yingya Zhou & Linwei Ma & Weidou Ni & Colin Yu, 2023. "Data Enrichment as a Method of Data Preprocessing to Enhance Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-18, February.
    16. Zhang, Guowei & Zhang, Yi & Wang, Hui & Liu, Da & Cheng, Runkun & Yang, Di, 2024. "Short-term wind speed forecasting based on adaptive secondary decomposition and robust temporal convolutional network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    17. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. Yanghe Liu & Hairong Zhang & Chuanfeng Wu & Mengxin Shao & Liting Zhou & Wenlong Fu, 2024. "A Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Framework Coupling a Maximum Information Coefficient, Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise, Shared Weight Gated Memory Network with Improved Northern Goshawk Optimization for Numerical," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-19, August.
    19. Cheng, Runkun & Yang, Di & Liu, Da & Zhang, Guowei, 2024. "A reconstruction-based secondary decomposition-ensemble framework for wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    20. Shengxiang Lv & Lin Wang & Sirui Wang, 2023. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:244:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125003155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.