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A high-accuracy hybrid method for short-term wind power forecasting

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  • Khazaei, Sahra
  • Ehsan, Mehdi
  • Soleymani, Soodabeh
  • Mohammadnezhad-Shourkaei, Hosein

Abstract

In this article, a high-accuracy hybrid approach for short-term wind power forecasting is proposed using historical data of wind farm and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data. The power forecasting is carried out in three stages: wind direction forecasting, wind speed forecasting, and wind power forecasting. In all three phases, the same hybrid method is used, and the only difference is in the input data set. The main steps of the proposed method are constituted of outlier detection, decomposition of time series using wavelet transform, effective feature selection and prediction of each time series decomposed using Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. The combination of automatic clustering and T2 statistic is employed for outlier detection. Effective feature selection is also carried out with the assistance of the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA- ӀӀ) and the Radial Basis Function (RBF) Neural network. The evaluation of the proposed method using the data of Sotavento wind farm located in Spain demonstrates the very high accuracy of the proposed approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Khazaei, Sahra & Ehsan, Mehdi & Soleymani, Soodabeh & Mohammadnezhad-Shourkaei, Hosein, 2022. "A high-accuracy hybrid method for short-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:238:y:2022:i:pc:s0360544221022684
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.122020
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    Cited by:

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    3. Han Peng & Songyin Li & Linjian Shangguan & Yisa Fan & Hai Zhang, 2023. "Analysis of Wind Turbine Equipment Failure and Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-35, May.
    4. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    5. Al-qaness, Mohammed A.A. & Ewees, Ahmed A. & Fan, Hong & Abualigah, Laith & Elaziz, Mohamed Abd, 2022. "Boosted ANFIS model using augmented marine predator algorithm with mutation operators for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    6. Qu, Zhijian & Li, Jian & Hou, Xinxing & Gui, Jianglin, 2023. "A D-stacking dual-fusion, spatio-temporal graph deep neural network based on a multi-integrated overlay for short-term wind-farm cluster power multi-step prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    7. Mehmood, Faiza & Ghani, Muhammad Usman & Ghafoor, Hina & Shahzadi, Rehab & Asim, Muhammad Nabeel & Mahmood, Waqar, 2022. "EGD-SNet: A computational search engine for predicting an end-to-end machine learning pipeline for Energy Generation & Demand Forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).

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