IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v39y2011i10p5818-5828.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Winkler, Harald
  • Hughes, Alison
  • Marquard, Andrew
  • Haw, Mary
  • Merven, Bruno

Abstract

This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkler, Harald & Hughes, Alison & Marquard, Andrew & Haw, Mary & Merven, Bruno, 2011. "South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5818-5828, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:5818-5828
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511004630
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arrow Kenneth J, 2007. "Global Climate Change: A Challenge to Policy," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-5, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lucas, Paul L. & Nielsen, Jens & Calvin, Katherine & L. McCollum, David & Marangoni, Giacomo & Strefler, Jessica & van der Zwaan, Bob C.C. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2015. "Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 705-717.
    2. Harald Winkler & Anya Boyd & Marta Torres Gunfaus & Stefan Raubenheimer, 2015. "Reconsidering development by reflecting on climate change," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 369-385, November.
    3. Mayr, Dieter & Schmid, Erwin & Trollip, Hilton & Zeyringer, Marianne & Schmidt, Johannes, 2015. "The impact of residential photovoltaic power on electricity sales revenues in Cape Town, South Africa," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 10-23.
    4. Katherine Calvin & Shonali Pachauri & Enrica Cian & Ioanna Mouratiadou, 2016. "The effect of African growth on future global energy, emissions, and regional development," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 109-125, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:5818-5828. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.