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Improving energy efficiency and smart grid program analysis with agent-based end-use forecasting models

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  • Jackson, Jerry

Abstract

Electric utilities and regulators face difficult challenges evaluating new energy efficiency and smart grid programs prompted, in large part, by recent state and federal mandates and financial incentives. It is increasingly difficult to separate electricity use impacts of individual utility programs from the impacts of increasingly stringent appliance and building efficiency standards, increasing electricity prices, appliance manufacturer efficiency improvements, energy program interactions and other factors. This study reviews traditional approaches used to evaluate electric utility energy efficiency and smart-grid programs and presents an agent-based end-use modeling approach that resolves many of the shortcomings of traditional approaches. Data for a representative sample of utility customers in a Midwestern US utility are used to evaluate energy efficiency and smart grid program targets over a fifteen-year horizon. Model analysis indicates that a combination of the two least stringent efficiency and smart grid program scenarios provides peak hour reductions one-third greater than the most stringent smart grid program suggesting that reductions in peak demand requirements are more feasible when both efficiency and smart grid programs are considered together. Suggestions on transitioning from traditional end-use models to agent-based end-use models are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackson, Jerry, 2010. "Improving energy efficiency and smart grid program analysis with agent-based end-use forecasting models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3771-3780, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:7:p:3771-3780
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clastres, Cédric, 2011. "Smart grids: Another step towards competition, energy security and climate change objectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5399-5408, September.
    2. Haidar, Ahmed M.A. & Muttaqi, Kashem & Sutanto, Danny, 2015. "Smart Grid and its future perspectives in Australia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1375-1389.
    3. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    4. Niamir, Leila & Filatova, Tatiana & Voinov, Alexey & Bressers, Hans, 2018. "Transition to low-carbon economy: Assessing cumulative impacts of individual behavioral changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 325-345.
    5. Leila Niamir & Gregor Kiesewetter & Fabian Wagner & Wolfgang Schöpp & Tatiana Filatova & Alexey Voinov & Hans Bressers, 2020. "Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of individual behavioral changes on carbon emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 141-160, January.
    6. Kowalska-Pyzalska, Anna, 2018. "What makes consumers adopt to innovative energy services in the energy market? A review of incentives and barriers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3570-3581.
    7. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    8. Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska & Katarzyna Maciejowska & Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Going green: Agent-based modeling of the diffusion of dynamic electricity tariffs," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    9. Lin, Chen-Chun & Yang, Chia-Han & Shyua, Joseph Z., 2013. "A comparison of innovation policy in the smart grid industry across the pacific: China and the USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 119-132.
    10. Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska, 2016. "What makes consumers adopt to innovative energy services in the energy market?," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/09, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    11. Kyungjin Yoo & Seth Blumsack, 2018. "The Political Complexity of Regional Electricity Policy Formation," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-18, December.
    12. Blarke, Morten B. & Jenkins, Bryan M., 2013. "SuperGrid or SmartGrid: Competing strategies for large-scale integration of intermittent renewables?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 381-390.
    13. Cédric Clastres, 2011. "Smart grids : Another step towards competition, energy security and climate change objectives," Post-Print halshs-00617702, HAL.

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