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Projected costs of a grid-connected domestic PV system under different scenarios in Ireland, using measured data from a trial installation

Author

Listed:
  • Ayompe, L.M.
  • Duffy, A.
  • McCormack, S.J.
  • Conlon, M.

Abstract

This paper presents results of a study of projected costs for a grid-connected PV system for domestic application in Ireland. The study is based on results from a 1.72 kWp PV system installed on a flat rooftop in Dublin, Ireland. During its first year of operation a total of 885.1 kWh/kWp of electricity was generated with a performance ratio of 81.5%. The scenarios employed in this study consider: a range of capital costs; cost dynamics based on a PV module learning rate of 20±5%; projections for global annual installed PV capacity under an advanced and moderate market growth conditions; domestic electricity cost growth of 4.5% based on historic data; and a reduction of 25% or 50% in the CO2 intensity of national electricity production by 2055. These scenarios are used to predict when system life cycle production costs fall to grid prices (grid parity). Average NPV and electricity generation costs ranged from -[euro]14,330 and 0.58 [euro]/kWh and were close to zero and 0.18 [euro]/kWh for a system installed in 2009 and 2030, respectively. However, under optimistic conditions NPVs are positive for systems installed after 2021 and grid parity occurs in 2016. Findings are compared with similar international studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayompe, L.M. & Duffy, A. & McCormack, S.J. & Conlon, M., 2010. "Projected costs of a grid-connected domestic PV system under different scenarios in Ireland, using measured data from a trial installation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3731-3743, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:7:p:3731-3743
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neij, Lena, 2008. "Cost development of future technologies for power generation--A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 2200-2211, June.
    2. Ferioli, F. & Schoots, K. & van der Zwaan, B.C.C., 2009. "Use and limitations of learning curves for energy technology policy: A component-learning hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2525-2535, July.
    3. Ren, Hongbo & Gao, Weijun & Ruan, Yingjun, 2009. "Economic optimization and sensitivity analysis of photovoltaic system in residential buildings," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 883-889.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuan, Jiahai & Sun, Shenghui & Zhang, Wenhua & Xiong, Minpeng, 2014. "The economy of distributed PV in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 939-949.
    2. Palmer, J. & Sorda, G. & Madlener, R., 2015. "Modeling the diffusion of residential photovoltaic systems in Italy: An agent-based simulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 106-131.
    3. Breyer, Christian & Koskinen, Otto & Blechinger, Philipp, 2015. "Profitable climate change mitigation: The case of greenhouse gas emission reduction benefits enabled by solar photovoltaic systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 610-628.
    4. Stevanović, Sanja & Pucar, Mila, 2012. "Investment appraisal of a small, grid-connected photovoltaic plant under the Serbian feed-in tariff framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 1673-1682.
    5. repec:eee:energy:v:134:y:2017:i:c:p:256-268 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hernández-Moro, J. & Martínez-Duart, J.M., 2013. "Analytical model for solar PV and CSP electricity costs: Present LCOE values and their future evolution," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 119-132.
    7. repec:eee:renene:v:116:y:2018:i:pa:p:384-401 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jägemann, Cosima & Hagspiel, Simeon & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "The Economic Inefficiency of Grid Parity: The Case of German Photovoltaics," EWI Working Papers 2013-19, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).

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