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Green certificate markets, the risk of over-investment, and the role of long-term contracts

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  • Kildegaard, Arne

Abstract

Several papers have recently analyzed the theory and implementation of renewable energy support schemes. The case for a renewable electricity standard (RES) in tandem with a tradeable green certificate (TGC) market has been largely based on efficiency considerations. Case study evidence is inconclusive, in part due to the short track record, but is not generally favorable. Here we reconsider the efficiency case, both static and dynamic, in light of special characteristics of renewable energy projects. We find that when exclusively high fixed-cost technologies comprise the eligible technology pool, the equilibrium form of contracting obviates the principal efficiency advantages claimed for certificate markets. When low fixed-cost technologies compete alongside high fixed-cost technologies in the certificate market, we show that it is likely that long-term contracts will disappear, and the technological choice will be inefficiently shifted away from the high fixed-cost technology. We consider evidence from three well-developed certificate schemes--in Britain, Sweden, and Texas--and find that it is broadly consistent with the theory here.

Suggested Citation

  • Kildegaard, Arne, 2008. "Green certificate markets, the risk of over-investment, and the role of long-term contracts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3413-3421, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:9:p:3413-3421
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nagl, Stephan, 2013. "The Effect of Weather Uncertainty on the Financial Risk of Green Electricity Producers under Various Renewable Policies," EWI Working Papers 2013-15, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    2. Darmani, Anna & Rickne, Annika & Hidalgo, Antonio & Arvidsson, Niklas, 2016. "When outcomes are the reflection of the analysis criteria: A review of the tradable green certificate assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 372-381.
    3. repec:spr:epolin:v:44:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40812-017-0071-z is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nagl, Stephan, 2013. "Prices vs. Quantities: Incentives for Renewable Power Generation - Numerical Analysis for the European Power Market," EWI Working Papers 2013-4, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    5. Xin-gang, Zhao & Tian-tian, Feng & Lu, Cui & Xia, Feng, 2014. "The barriers and institutional arrangements of the implementation of renewable portfolio standard: A perspective of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 371-380.
    6. Paul Koutstaal & Michiel Bijlsma & Gijsbert Zwart & X. van Tilburg, 2009. "Market performance and distributional effects on renewable energy markets," CPB Document 190, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Kumar, Rajesh & Agarwala, Arun, 2013. "Renewable Energy Certificate and Perform, Achieve, Trade mechanisms to enhance the energy security for India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 669-676.
    8. Paul Lehmann & Felix Creutzig & Melf-Hinrich Ehlers & Nele Friedrichsen & Clemens Heuson & Lion Hirth & Robert Pietzcker, 2012. "Carbon Lock-Out: Advancing Renewable Energy Policy in Europe," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 1-32, February.
    9. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Wiser, Ryan & Barbose, Galen & Holt, Edward, 2011. "Supporting solar power in renewables portfolio standards: Experience from the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3894-3905, July.
    11. Christoph Heinzel & Thomas Winkler, 2011. "Economic functioning and politically pragmatic justification of tradable green certificates in Poland," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 13(2), pages 157-175, June.
    12. Coulon, Michael & Khazaei, Javad & Powell, Warren B., 2015. "SMART-SREC: A stochastic model of the New Jersey solar renewable energy certificate market," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 13-31.
    13. Klitkou, Antje & Godoe, Helge, 2013. "The Norwegian PV manufacturing industry in a Triple Helix perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1586-1594.
    14. Fagiani, Riccardo & Hakvoort, Rudi, 2014. "The role of regulatory uncertainty in certificate markets: A case study of the Swedish/Norwegian market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 608-618.
    15. Verbruggen, Aviel & Lauber, Volkmar, 2009. "Basic concepts for designing renewable electricity support aiming at a full-scale transition by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5732-5743, December.
    16. Ross, S.J. & McHenry, M.P. & Whale, J., 2012. "The impact of state feed-in tariffs and federal tradable quota support policies on grid-connected small wind turbine installed capacity in Australia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 141-147.
    17. Colcelli, Valentina, 2012. "The problem of the legal nature of Green Certificates in the Italian legal system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 301-306.
    18. Tim Mennel & Teresa Romano & Sara Scatasta, 2013. "Comparing Feed-In Tariffs and Renewable Obligation Certificates - The Case of Repowering Wind Farms," IEFE Working Papers 57, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    19. Pineda, Salvador & Bock, Andreas, 2016. "Renewable-based generation expansion under a green certificate market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 53-63.
    20. Maria Kopsakangas-Savolainen & Rauli Svento, 2013. "Promotion of Market Access for Renewable Energy in the Nordic Power Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(4), pages 549-569, April.
    21. Buckman, Greg, 2011. "The effectiveness of Renewable Portfolio Standard banding and carve-outs in supporting high-cost types of renewable electricity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4105-4114, July.

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