IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v199y2025ics0301421525000345.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-agent simulation of policies driving CCS technology in the cement industry

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Biying
  • Fu, Jiahao
  • Dai, Ying

Abstract

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has the potential to accelerate the cement industry's transition to low carbon, but it is still in the early demonstration stage. Strong policies are needed to promote its large-scale development. However, previous research was inadequate to identify the intertwined motivating factors behind the policy, which led to the policies being less effective. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the impact of policy on the diffusion of CCS in the cement industry by delving into the interaction mechanisms among agents, including the government, cement companies with and without CCS, CCS technology, and downstream sectors of the cement industry. An agent-based model is developed to simulate the effects of various policy measures on multi-agents’ behaviors and to examine CO2 emissions, costs, and CCS penetration rates. The results indicate that CCS diffusion will start in 2026, and a diffusion rate of 45.2% will be achieved by 2060, considering China's 30% investment subsidy ratio. The policy with the highest rate of CCS diffusion (62%) and the highest rate of emission reduction (87%) by 2060 provides for a 30% investment subsidy combined with a full quota charge. The 10% investment subsidy policy has the lowest unit cost of abatement (133 CNY/tCO2).

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Biying & Fu, Jiahao & Dai, Ying, 2025. "Multi-agent simulation of policies driving CCS technology in the cement industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:199:y:2025:i:c:s0301421525000345
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114527
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421525000345
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114527?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nhuchhen, Daya R., 2023. "Integrated gasification carbon capture plant using molten carbonate fuel cell: An application to a cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    2. Zhou, Wenji & Jiang, Di & Chen, Dingjiang & Griffy-Brown, Charla & Jin, Yong & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Capturing CO2 from cement plants: A priority for reducing CO2 emissions in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 464-474.
    3. Chayjan, Melika Rezaei & Dehghanian, Farzad & Kakhki, Mohammad Daneshvar, 2024. "Modeling residential photovoltaic adoption: A system dynamics approach for solar energy expansion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Lin, Boqiang & Xie, Yongjing, 2023. "Positive or negative? R&D subsidies and green technology innovation: Evidence from China's renewable energy industry," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 148-156.
    5. Fei, Chengcheng J. & Kung, Chih-Chun, 2024. "The effects of tiered-electrical-subsidy policy on biopower development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Haakon Vennemo & Jianwu He & Shantong Li, 2014. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Carbon Capture and Storage in China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 59(3), pages 455-477, November.
    7. Herrmann, J.K. & Savin, I., 2017. "Optimal policy identification: Insights from the German electricity market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 71-90.
    8. Ren, Ming & Ma, Teng & Fang, Chen & Liu, Xiaorui & Guo, Chaoyi & Zhang, Silu & Zhou, Ziqiao & Zhu, Yanlei & Dai, Hancheng & Huang, Chen, 2023. "Negative emission technology is key to decarbonizing China's cement industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    9. Danyang Cheng & David M. Reiner & Fan Yang & Can Cui & Jing Meng & Yuli Shan & Yunhui Liu & Shu Tao & Dabo Guan, 2023. "Projecting future carbon emissions from cement production in developing countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Zhu, Min & Dong, Peiwu & Ju, Yanbing & Li, Jiajun & Ran, Lun, 2023. "Effects of government subsidies on heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell truck penetration: A scenario-based system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    11. Dhirasasna, NiNa & Sahin, Oz, 2021. "A system dynamics model for renewable energy technology adoption of the hotel sector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1994-2007.
    12. Burra, Lavan T. & Sommer, Stephan & Vance, Colin, 2024. "Policy complementarities in the promotion of electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    13. Jia, Tingwen & Li, Chengjiang & Wang, Honglei & Hu, Yu-jie & Wang, Shiyuan & Xu, Guoteng & Hoang, Anh Tuan, 2024. "Subsidy policy or dual-credit policy? Evolutionary game analysis of green methanol vehicles promotion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    14. Li, Nan & Ma, Ding & Chen, Wenying, 2017. "Quantifying the impacts of decarbonisation in China’s cement sector: A perspective from an integrated assessment approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1840-1848.
    15. Montoya-Duque, Laura & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Arias-Gaviria, Jessica, 2022. "Simulating the effect of the Pay-as-you-go scheme for solar energy diffusion in Colombian off-grid regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    16. Zhao, Dan & Ji, Shou-feng & Wang, He-ping & Jiang, Li-wen, 2021. "How do government subsidies promote new energy vehicle diffusion in the complex network context? A three-stage evolutionary game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    17. Izhar Hussain Shah & Sabbie A. Miller & Daqian Jiang & Rupert J. Myers, 2022. "Cement substitution with secondary materials can reduce annual global CO2 emissions by up to 1.3 gigatons," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Zhao, Tian & Liu, Zhixin, 2019. "A novel analysis of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology adoption: An evolutionary game model between stakeholders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    19. Tan, Qinliang & Han, Jian & Liu, Yuan, 2023. "Examining the synergistic diffusion process of carbon capture and renewable energy generation technologies under market environment: A multi-agent simulation analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    20. Hosan, Shahadat & Rahman, Md Matiar & Karmaker, Shamal Chandra & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2023. "Energy subsidies and energy technology innovation: Policies for polygeneration systems diffusion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    21. Ball, Christopher Stephen & Vögele, Stefan & Grajewski, Matthias & Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm, 2021. "E-mobility from a multi-actor point of view: Uncertainties and their impacts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    22. Castaneda, Monica & Zapata, Sebastian & Cherni, Judith & Aristizabal, Andres J. & Dyner, Isaac, 2020. "The long-term effects of cautious feed-in tariff reductions on photovoltaic generation in the UK residential sector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1432-1443.
    23. Gao, Jiayang & Zhang, Tao, 2022. "Effects of public funding on the commercial diffusion of on-site hydrogen production technology: A system dynamics perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    24. Jimenez, Maritza & Franco, Carlos J. & Dyner, Isaac, 2016. "Diffusion of renewable energy technologies: The need for policy in Colombia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 818-829.
    25. Shi, Yingying & Wei, Zixiang & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zeng, Yongchao, 2021. "Exploring the dynamics of low-carbon technology diffusion among enterprises: An evolutionary game model on a two-level heterogeneous social network," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    26. Quader, M. Abdul & Ahmed, Shamsuddin & Ghazilla, Raja Ariffin Raja & Ahmed, Shameem & Dahari, Mahidzal, 2015. "A comprehensive review on energy efficient CO2 breakthrough technologies for sustainable green iron and steel manufacturing," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 594-614.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Junjie & Liu, Pei & Lin, Borong & Zhou, Hao & Papachristos, George, 2025. "The diffusion of prefabrication technology and its potential for CO2 emissions reduction in China: A combined system dynamics and agent-based study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    2. Zeng, Yongchao & Shi, Yingying & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Liu, Qin, 2024. "Scenario-based policy representative exploration: A novel approach to analyzing policy portfolios and its application to low-carbon energy diffusion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    3. Sun, Yong & Liu, Baoyin & Sun, Zhongrui & Yang, Ruijia, 2023. "Inter-regional cooperation in the transfers of energy-intensive industry: An evolutionary game approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    4. Zhang, Weiwei & Wang, Yuanrong & Chen, Ximei & Li, Yunzhuo & Dai, He, 2025. "Exploring the diffusion mechanisms of CCS-EOR technology: A quadripartite evolutionary game," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    5. Renjie Zhang & Hsingwei Tai & Kuotai Cheng & Huizhong Dong & Wenhui Liu & Junjie Hou, 2022. "Carbon Emission Efficiency Network: Evolutionary Game and Sensitivity Analysis between Differentiated Efficiency Groups and Local Governments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Chen, Feng & Wu, Bin & Lou, Wen-qian & Zhu, Bo-wen, 2024. "Impact of dual-credit policy on diffusion of technology R & D among automakers: Based on an evolutionary game model with technology-spillover in complex network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    7. Becerra-Fernandez, Mauricio & Sarmiento, Alfonso T. & Cardenas, Laura M., 2023. "Sustainability assessment of the solar energy supply chain in Colombia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    8. Huang, Xingjun & Lin, Yun & Lim, Ming K. & Zhou, Fuli & Liu, Feng, 2022. "Electric vehicle charging station diffusion: An agent-based evolutionary game model in complex networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    9. Zheng, Sen & Zhang, Jie & Jian, Lirong, 2024. "Green technology diffusion mechanism in China's aviation industry cluster based on complex network game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    10. Ruguo Fan & Rongkai Chen, 2022. "Promotion Policies for Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China Considering Dynamic Consumer Preferences: A Network-Based Evolutionary Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Dongpu Fu & Jiarui Sun & Cuiyou Yao & Fulei Shi, 2024. "The influence of policy incentives on the diffusion of battery-swapping taxis and stations: a coupled evolutionary game model in complex networks," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(10), pages 26945-26969, October.
    12. Wang, Yitong & Fan, Ruguo & Du, Kang & Bao, Xuguang, 2023. "Exploring incentives to promote electric vehicles diffusion under subsidy abolition: An evolutionary analysis on multiplex consumer social networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    13. Chu, Yi & Yu, Hui & Li, Ying, 2024. "How do supply- and demand-side dynamics and subsidies affect the prospects for electric vehicle battery swapping services? Evidence from an evolutionary analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    14. Lefeng Cheng & Pan Peng & Wentian Lu & Pengrong Huang & Yang Chen, 2024. "Study of Flexibility Transformation in Thermal Power Enterprises under Multi-Factor Drivers: Application of Complex-Network Evolutionary Game Theory," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-23, August.
    15. Wang, Yadong & Mao, Jinqi & Chen, Fan & Wang, Delu, 2022. "Uncovering the dynamics and uncertainties of substituting coal power with renewable energy resources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 669-686.
    16. Liu, Peide & Li, Xina & Li, Jialu, 2023. "Competitive firms’ low-carbon technology diffusion under pollution regulations: A network-based evolutionary analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    17. Liu, Xianbing & Fan, Yongbin & Wang, Can, 2017. "An estimation of the effect of carbon pricing for CO2 mitigation in China’s cement industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 671-686.
    18. Montoya-Duque, Laura & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Arias-Gaviria, Jessica, 2022. "Simulating the effect of the Pay-as-you-go scheme for solar energy diffusion in Colombian off-grid regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    19. Zhu, Chaoping & Su, Yixuan & Fan, Ruguo & Xu, Ruiheng & Li, Bing, 2025. "Research on the optimal incentive and constraint mechanisms for corporate carbon information disclosure considering different market contexts: A network-based evolutionary game analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    20. Liu, Yajie & Dong, Feng, 2022. "What are the roles of consumers, automobile production enterprises, and the government in the process of banning gasoline vehicles? Evidence from a tripartite evolutionary game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:199:y:2025:i:c:s0301421525000345. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.