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The effect of lockdowns and infection rates on supermarket sales

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  • Vall Castelló, Judit
  • Lopez Casasnovas, Guillem

Abstract

In this paper we document the evolution of the supermarket sales in one of the European countries, Spain, that has been most hardly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a very detailed dataset at the weekly and municipality level on the sales of a supermarket chain, we are able to separately identify the effects on sales for 12 different food products and for three population age groups. Furthermore, we distinguish between the impact of the lockdown, which affected the entire territory by mid-March, from the effect of the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases at the municipal level. Our results show strong stockpiling effects for most of the products in the first week of adoption of the lockdown measures. On the other hand, the number of new cases at the municipal level is associated with reductions in sales, pointing towards increased fears of being infected as the main driver of the slowdown in sales. Finally, when we do a separate analysis for different age groups, we find no effects for individuals aged 66 and over.

Suggested Citation

  • Vall Castelló, Judit & Lopez Casasnovas, Guillem, 2021. "The effect of lockdowns and infection rates on supermarket sales," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:40:y:2021:i:c:s1570677x20302173
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2020.100947
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
    2. José González Mínguez & Alberto Urtasun & Miguel Pérez García de Mirasierra, 2020. "Evolución del consumo en España durante la vigencia del estado de alarma: un análisis a partir del gasto con tarjetas de pago," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue 3/2020.
    3. Hansen, Stephen & Carvalho, Vasco & García, Juan Ramón & Ortiz, Alvaro & Rodrigo, Tomasa & Rodríguez Mora, José V & Ruiz, Pep, 2020. "Tracking the COVID-19 Crisis with High-Resolution Transaction Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 14642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Cummins, Steven & Berger, Nicolas & Cornelsen, Laura & Eling, Judith & Er, Vanessa & Greener, Robert & Kalbus, Alexandra & Karapici, Amanda & Law, Cherry & Ndlovu, Denise, 2020. "COVID-19: impact on the urban food retail system, diet and health inequalities in the UK," SocArXiv dwv2e, Center for Open Science.
    5. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Responses of Consumption and Prices in Japan to the COVID-19 Crisis and the Tohoku Earthquake," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 020, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Jill E. Hobbs, 2020. "Food supply chains during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 171-176, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Braut, Beatrice & Migheli, Matteo & Truant, Elisa, 2022. "Food consumption changes during 2020 lockdown in Italy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 107-119.
    2. Zuokas, Danas & Gul, Evren & Lim, Alvin, 2022. "How did COVID-19 change what people buy: Evidence from a supermarket chain," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Supermarket sales; Lockdown;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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