IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Noisy signals in target zone regimes:: Theory and Monte Carlo experiments


  • Holden, Steinar
  • Kolsrud, Dag


Previous empirical evidence indicates that uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) does not hold for target zone exchange rates, like those in the European Monetary System and in the Nordic countries. We explore a target zone model where the market inferes the probability of a realignment of the band on the basis of a noisy signal. We show theoretically and through Monte Carlo simulations that if the market overrates the information content in the signal, then this may explain the empirical results obtained from testing UIP for target zone exchange rates.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Holden, Steinar & Kolsrud, Dag, 1999. "Noisy signals in target zone regimes:: Theory and Monte Carlo experiments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(8), pages 1531-1567, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:43:y:1999:i:8:p:1531-1567

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-752, November.
    2. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-872, August.
    3. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    4. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-636, September.
    5. Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-754.
    6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August.
    7. Mundaca, B Gabriela, 1991. " The Volatility of the Norwegian Currency Basket," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(1), pages 53-73.
    8. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
    9. Krasker, William S., 1980. "The `peso problem' in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 269-276, April.
    10. Marianne Nessen, 1997. "Exchange Rate Expectations, the Forward Exchange Rate Bias and Risk Premia in Target Zones," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 99-136, April.
    11. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1992. "Estimating limited-dependent rational expectations models with an application to exchange rate determination in a target zone," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 141-163.
    13. De Grauwe, Paul, 1989. "On the Nature of Risk in the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the Dollar and the EMS Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 352, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Rose, A.K. & Svensson, L.E., 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: the FF/DM Exchange Rate during the EMS," Papers 485, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    15. Tversky, Amos & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Anomalies: Preference Reversals," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 201-211, Spring.
    16. Engel, C., 1995. "Why is the Foreward Exchange Rate Forecast Based? A Survey of Recent Evidence," Working Papers 95-08, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    17. Holden, Steinar & Vikoren, Birger, 1994. " Interest Rates in the Nordic Countries: Evidence Based on Devaluation Expectations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 15-30.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," IMK Working Paper 99-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Sverre Grepperud, 1997. "Soil Depletion Choices under Production and Price Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 186, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:43:y:1999:i:8:p:1531-1567. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.