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Noisy signals in target zone regimes Theory and Monte Carlo experiments

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Abstract

Previous empirical evidence indicates that uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) does not hold for target zone exchange rates, like those in the European Monetary System and in the Nordic countries. We explore a target zone model where the market inferes the probability of a realignment of the band on the basis of a noisy signal. We show theoretically and through Monte Carlo simulations that if the market overrates the information content in the signal, then this may explain the empirical results obtained from testing UIP for target zone exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Steinar Holden & Dag Kolsrud & Birger Vikøren, 1995. "Noisy signals in target zone regimes Theory and Monte Carlo experiments," Discussion Papers 160, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:160
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    Cited by:

    1. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," IMK Working Paper 99-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Sverre Grepperud, 1997. "Soil Depletion Choices under Production and Price Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 186, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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