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Robust Monitoring of Time Series with Application to Fraud Detection

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  • Rousseeuw, Peter
  • Perrotta, Domenico
  • Riani, Marco
  • Hubert, Mia

Abstract

Time series often contain outliers and level shifts or structural changes. These unexpected events are of the utmost importance in fraud detection, as they may pinpoint suspicious transactions. The presence of such unusual events can easily mislead conventional time series analysis and yield erroneous conclusions. A unified framework is provided for detecting outliers and level shifts in short time series that may have a seasonal pattern. The approach combines ideas from the FastLTS algorithm for robust regression with alternating least squares. The double wedge plot is proposed, a graphical display which indicates outliers and potential level shifts. The methodology was developed to detect potential fraud cases in time series of imports into the European Union, and is illustrated on two such series.

Suggested Citation

  • Rousseeuw, Peter & Perrotta, Domenico & Riani, Marco & Hubert, Mia, 2019. "Robust Monitoring of Time Series with Application to Fraud Detection," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 108-121.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosta:v:9:y:2019:i:c:p:108-121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2018.05.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Claudio Agostinelli & Andy Leung & Victor Yohai & Ruben Zamar, 2015. "Robust estimation of multivariate location and scatter in the presence of cellwise and casewise contamination," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(3), pages 441-461, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.

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