IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosta/v9y2019icp108-121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Robust Monitoring of Time Series with Application to Fraud Detection

Author

Listed:
  • Rousseeuw, Peter
  • Perrotta, Domenico
  • Riani, Marco
  • Hubert, Mia

Abstract

Time series often contain outliers and level shifts or structural changes. These unexpected events are of the utmost importance in fraud detection, as they may pinpoint suspicious transactions. The presence of such unusual events can easily mislead conventional time series analysis and yield erroneous conclusions. A unified framework is provided for detecting outliers and level shifts in short time series that may have a seasonal pattern. The approach combines ideas from the FastLTS algorithm for robust regression with alternating least squares. The double wedge plot is proposed, a graphical display which indicates outliers and potential level shifts. The methodology was developed to detect potential fraud cases in time series of imports into the European Union, and is illustrated on two such series.

Suggested Citation

  • Rousseeuw, Peter & Perrotta, Domenico & Riani, Marco & Hubert, Mia, 2019. "Robust Monitoring of Time Series with Application to Fraud Detection," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 108-121.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosta:v:9:y:2019:i:c:p:108-121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2018.05.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2452306218300303
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Contains open access articles
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecosta.2018.05.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bianco, Ana Maria, et al, 2001. "Outlier Detection in Regression Models with ARIMA Errors Using Robust Estimates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 565-579, December.
    2. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
    3. Claudio Agostinelli & Andy Leung & Victor Yohai & Ruben Zamar, 2015. "Rejoinder on: Robust estimation of multivariate location and scatter in the presence of cellwise and casewise contamination," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(3), pages 484-488, September.
    4. Silvia Salini & Andrea Cerioli & Fabrizio Laurini & Marco Riani, 2016. "Reliable Robust Regression Diagnostics," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 84(1), pages 99-127, April.
    5. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 169-177, April.
    6. Claudio Agostinelli & Andy Leung & Victor Yohai & Ruben Zamar, 2015. "Robust estimation of multivariate location and scatter in the presence of cellwise and casewise contamination," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(3), pages 441-461, September.
    7. Fried, Roland & Gather, Ursula, 2007. "On rank tests for shift detection in time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 221-233, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luca Barbaglia & Christophe Croux & Ines Wilms, 2022. "Detecting Anti-dumping Circumvention: A Network Approach," Papers 2207.05394, arXiv.org.
    2. Vanessa Berenguer-Rico & Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "Models where the Least Trimmed Squares and Least Median of Squares estimators are maximum likelihood," CREATES Research Papers 2019-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
    4. Lila, Maurício Franca & Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2022. "Forecasting unemployment in Brazil: A robust reconciliation approach using hierarchical data," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    5. Francesca Torti & Marco Riani & Gianluca Morelli, 2021. "Semiautomatic robust regression clustering of international trade data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(3), pages 863-894, September.
    6. Maria E. Frey & Hans C. Petersen & Oke Gerke, 2020. "Nonparametric Limits of Agreement for Small to Moderate Sample Sizes: A Simulation Study," Stats, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-13, August.
    7. Lucio Barabesi & Andrea Cerioli & Domenico Perrotta, 2021. "Forum on Benford’s law and statistical methods for the detection of frauds," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(3), pages 767-778, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Nikola Štefelová & Andreas Alfons & Javier Palarea-Albaladejo & Peter Filzmoser & Karel Hron, 2021. "Robust regression with compositional covariates including cellwise outliers," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 15(4), pages 869-909, December.
    3. Giancarlo Bruno & Edoardo Otranto, 2006. "The choice of time interval in seasonal adjustment: A heuristic approach," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 393-417, June.
    4. Mauricio Gallardo & Hernán Rubio, 2009. "Diagnóstico de estacionalidad con X-12-ARIMA," Economic Statistics Series 76, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Kroes, James R. & Manikas, Andrew S. & Gattiker, Thomas F., 2018. "Operational leanness and retail firm performance since 1980," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 262-274.
    7. Quenneville, Benoit & Ladiray, Dominique & Lefrancois, Bernard, 2003. "A note on Musgrave asymmetrical trend-cycle filters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 727-734.
    8. Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    9. Hai Yue Liu & Xiao Lan Chen, 2017. "The imported price, inflation and exchange rate pass-through in China," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1279814-127, January.
    10. Henryk Gurgul & Marcin Suder, 2013. "The Properties of ATMs Development Stages - an Empirical Analysis," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 14(3), pages 443-466, September.
    11. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986–2009 with X-12-ARIMA," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 47-87, April.
    12. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Kirchner, Robert, 1999. "Auswirkungen des neuen Saisonbereinigungsverfahrens Census X-12-ARIMA auf die aktuelle Wirtschaftsanalyse in Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1999,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Christophe Croux & Viktoria Öllerer, 2015. "Comments on: Robust estimation of multivariate location and scatter in the presence of cellwise and casewise contamination," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(3), pages 462-466, September.
    15. M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2003. "Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-071/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Flávio de Freitas Val & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, 2017. "Estimating the Credibility of Brazilian Monetary Policy using Forward Measures and a State-Space Model," Working Papers Series 463, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    17. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2021. "Does Hamilton’s OLS Regression Provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott Filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 151-183, November.
    18. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 331-371, July.
    19. Møller, Niels Framroze & Møller Andersen, Frits, 2015. "An econometric analysis of electricity demand response to price changes at the intra-day horizon: The case of manufacturing industry in West Denmark," MPRA Paper 66178, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Aug 2015.
    20. Giovanni Saraceno & Claudio Agostinelli & Luca Greco, 2021. "Robust estimation for multivariate wrapped models," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 79(2), pages 225-240, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosta:v:9:y:2019:i:c:p:108-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/econometrics-and-statistics .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.