IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecoser/v39y2019ics2212041618306314.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in southern California

Author

Listed:
  • Underwood, Emma C.
  • Hollander, Allan D.
  • Safford, Hugh D.
  • Kim, John B.
  • Srivastava, Lorie
  • Drapek, Ray J.

Abstract

Climate change is projected to impact ecosystem functioning, however its effect on the provision of ecosystem services is uncertain. This is particularly relevant on federal lands which harbor extensive tracts of natural vegetation. We assessed change in four ecosystem services (water runoff, groundwater recharge, carbon storage, and biodiversity) and one disservice (sediment export) in southern California between current and end-of-century (2070–2099). We used five general circulation models ranging from warmer wetter (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4) to hotter, marginally drier (IPSL-CM5A-LR) to hotter drier (FGOALS-g2, MIROC-ESM) under RCP8.5. We found greatest projected change in water runoff, from an increase of 127% under a warmer wetter GCM to a decrease of −60% under a hotter drier future. Carbon storage is projected to change the least, from an increase of 52% to a decrease of −31% across GCMs. We also determined that one-third of high biodiversity areas are threatened by high change in climatic water deficit. We estimated the current monetized annual value of sediment removal costs to be $172 million per year and the economic value of carbon storage as $7.5 billion. Understanding the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services can help develop climate-smart strategies for the sustainable management of natural resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Underwood, Emma C. & Hollander, Allan D. & Safford, Hugh D. & Kim, John B. & Srivastava, Lorie & Drapek, Ray J., 2019. "The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in southern California," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:39:y:2019:i:c:s2212041618306314
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.101008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041618306314
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.101008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sandifer, Paul A. & Sutton-Grier, Ariana E. & Ward, Bethney P., 2015. "Exploring connections among nature, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human health and well-being: Opportunities to enhance health and biodiversity conservation," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 1-15.
    2. Turpie, J.K. & Forsythe, K.J. & Knowles, A. & Blignaut, J. & Letley, G., 2017. "Mapping and valuation of South Africa's ecosystem services: A local perspective," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 27(PB), pages 179-192.
    3. Harrison, P.A. & Berry, P.M. & Simpson, G. & Haslett, J.R. & Blicharska, M. & Bucur, M. & Dunford, R. & Egoh, B. & Garcia-Llorente, M. & Geamănă, N. & Geertsema, W. & Lommelen, E. & Meiresonne, L. & T, 2014. "Linkages between biodiversity attributes and ecosystem services: A systematic review," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 191-203.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    5. Robert J. Allen & Rainer Luptowitz, 2017. "El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Bartkowski, Bartosz, 2017. "Are diverse ecosystems more valuable? Economic value of biodiversity as result of uncertainty and spatial interactions in ecosystem service provision," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 50-57.
    7. Keywan Riahi & Shilpa Rao & Volker Krey & Cheolhung Cho & Vadim Chirkov & Guenther Fischer & Georg Kindermann & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Rafaj, 2011. "RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 33-57, November.
    8. Wright, William C.C. & Eppink, Florian V. & Greenhalgh, Suzie, 2017. "Are ecosystem service studies presenting the right information for decision making?," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 128-139.
    9. M. Shaw & Linwood Pendleton & D. Cameron & Belinda Morris & Dominique Bachelet & Kirk Klausmeyer & Jason MacKenzie & David Conklin & Gregrory Bratman & James Lenihan & Erik Haunreiter & Christopher Da, 2011. "The impact of climate change on California’s ecosystem services," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 465-484, December.
    10. Martinez-Harms, Maria Jose & Bryan, Brett A. & Figueroa, Eugenio & Pliscoff, Patricio & Runting, Rebecca K. & Wilson, Kerrie A., 2017. "Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 56-68.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuqing Xiong & Hong Li & Meichen Fu & Xiuhua Ma & Lei Wang, 2022. "Evaluation of Ecosystem Service Change Patterns in a Mining-Based City: A Case Study of Wu’an City," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Wenbo, Xu & Hengzhou, Xu & Xiaoyan, Li & Hua, Qiu & Ziyao, Wang, 2024. "Ecosystem services response to future land use/cover change (LUCC) under multiple scenarios: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Andrea Momblanch & Lindsay Beevers & Pradeep Srinivasalu & Anil Kulkarni & Ian P. Holman, 2020. "Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 343-361, September.
    4. Zhang, Guanshi & Zheng, Duo & Xie, Long & Zhang, Xiu & Wu, Hongjuan & Li, Sen, 2021. "Mapping changes in the value of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Megalopolis, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Turner, Sean W.D. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Son H. & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, Jae, 2017. "Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2081-2090.
    3. María Julieta Arias & Pablo Andrés Vaschetto & Mercedes Marchese & Luciana Regaldo & Ana María Gagneten, 2022. "Benthic Macroinvertebrates and Zooplankton Communities as Ecological Indicators in Urban Wetlands of Argentina," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    5. Pires, Aliny P.F. & Amaral, Aryanne G. & Padgurschi, Maíra C.G. & Joly, Carlos A. & Scarano, Fabio R., 2018. "Biodiversity research still falls short of creating links with ecosystem services and human well-being in a global hotspot," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 34(PA), pages 68-73.
    6. Hem H Dholakia & Vimal Mishra & Amit Garg, 2015. "Predicted Increases in Heat related Mortality under Climate Change in Urban India," Working Papers id:7115, eSocialSciences.
    7. Kubiszewski, Ida & Concollato, Luke & Costanza, Robert & Stern, David I., 2023. "Changes in authorship, networks, and research topics in ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Donaldson, Ross & Lord, Richard, 2018. "Can brownfield land be reused for ground source heating to alleviate fuel poverty?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 344-355.
    9. Zhang, Xiao & Li, Hong-Yi & Deng, Zhiqun D. & Leung, L. Ruby & Skalski, John R. & Cooke, Steven J., 2019. "On the variable effects of climate change on Pacific salmon," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 397(C), pages 95-106.
    10. San José, Roberto & Pérez, Juan Luis & Pérez, Libia & Gonzalez Barras, Rosa Maria, 2018. "Effects of climate change on the health of citizens modelling urban weather and air pollution," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 53-62.
    11. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 16-31.
    12. Ziv, Guy & Hassall, Christopher & Bartkowski, Bartosz & Cord, Anna F. & Kaim, Andrea & Kalamandeen, Michelle & Landaverde-González, Patricia & Melo, Joana L.B. & Seppelt, Ralf & Shannon, Caitriona & V, 2018. "A bird’s eye view over ecosystem services in Natura 2000 sites across Europe," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 30(PB), pages 287-298.
    13. De Valck, Jeremy & Rolfe, John, 2019. "Comparing biodiversity valuation approaches for the sustainable management of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 23-31.
    14. Soares, Pedro M.M. & Lima, Daniela C.A. & Cardoso, Rita M. & Nascimento, Manuel L. & Semedo, Alvaro, 2017. "Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 72-90.
    15. Callesen, Ingeborg, 2016. "Biodiversity and ecosystem services in life cycle impact assessment – Inventory objects or impact categories?," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 22(PA), pages 94-103.
    16. Sawadogo, Windmanagda & Abiodun, Babatunde J. & Okogbue, Emmanuel C., 2020. "Impacts of global warming on photovoltaic power generation over West Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 263-277.
    17. Daniels, Silvie & Bellmore, J. Ryan & Benjamin, Joseph R. & Witters, Nele & Vangronsveld, Jaco & Van Passel, Steven, 2018. "Quantification of the Indirect Use Value of Functional Group Diversity Based on the Ecological Role of Species in the Ecosystem," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 181-194.
    18. Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo & Bryan, Brett A. & Schwabe, Kurt A. & Connor, Jeffery D. & Law, Elizabeth A. & Nolan, Martin & Sánchez, José J., 2019. "Projected social costs of CO2 emissions from forest losses far exceed the sequestration benefits of forest gains under global change," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Prieur, Jacques, 2020. "Critical warning! Preventing the multidimensional apocalypse on planet Earth," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    20. Kang, Hyunwoo & Sridhar, Venkataramana & Mills, Bradford F. & Hession, W. Cully & Ogejo, Jactone A., 2019. "Economy-wide climate change impacts on green water droughts based on the hydrologic simulations," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 76-88.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:39:y:2019:i:c:s2212041618306314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecosystem-services .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.