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Bayesian estimation approaches to first-price auctions

  • Kumbhakar, Subal C.
  • Parmeter, Christopher F.
  • Tsionas, Efthymios G.

This paper considers Bayesian estimation strategies for first-price auctions within the independent private value paradigm. We develop an ‘optimization’ error approach that allows for estimation of values assuming that observed bids differ from optimal bids. We further augment this approach by allowing systematic over or underbidding by bidders using ideas from the stochastic frontier literature. We perform a simulation study to showcase the appeal of the method and apply the techniques to timber auction data collected in British Columbia. Our results suggest that significant underbidding is present in the timber auctions.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 168 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 47-59

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:168:y:2012:i:1:p:47-59
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  3. Patrick Bajari & Ali Hortacsu, 2003. "Are Structural Estimates of Auction Models Reasonable? Evidence from Experimental Data," Working Papers 03002, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  4. Goeree, Jacob K. & Holt, Charles A. & Palfrey, Thomas R., 2002. "Quantal Response Equilibrium and Overbidding in Private-Value Auctions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 247-272, May.
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  7. Donald, Stephen G & Paarsch, Harry J, 1993. "Piecewise Pseudo-maximum Likelihood Estimation in Empirical Models of Auctions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 121-48, February.
  8. Donald, Stephen G. & Paarsch, Harry J., 1996. "Identification, Estimation, and Testing in Parametric Empirical Models of Auctions within the Independent Private Values Paradigm," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 517-567, August.
  9. van den Broeck, Julien & Koop, Gary & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1994. "Stochastic frontier models : A Bayesian perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 273-303, April.
  10. Richard A. Hofler & John A. List, 2004. "Valuation on the Frontier: Calibrating Actual and Hypothetical Statements of Value," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 213-221.
  11. Sareen, Samita, 1999. "Posterior Odds Comparison of a Symmetric Low-Price, Sealed-Bid Auction within the Common-Value and the Independent-Private-Values Paradigms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(6), pages 651-76, Nov.-Dec..
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  16. McKelvey Richard D. & Palfrey Thomas R., 1995. "Quantal Response Equilibria for Normal Form Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 6-38, July.
  17. Harry J. Paarsch & Han Hong, 2006. "An Introduction to the Structural Econometrics of Auction Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262162350, June.
  18. Douglas Dyer & John H. Kagel & Dan Levin, 1989. "Resolving Uncertainty about the Number of Bidders in Independent Private-Value Auctions: An Experimental Analysis," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 20(2), pages 268-279, Summer.
  19. Kumbhakar, Subal C. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2005. "Measuring technical and allocative inefficiency in the translog cost system: a Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 355-384, June.
  20. Eric T. Bradlow & Young-Hoon Park, 2007. "Bayesian Estimation of Bid Sequences in Internet Auctions Using a Generalized Record-Breaking Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(2), pages 218-229, 03-04.
  21. Koop, Gary & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1997. "Bayesian efficiency analysis through individual effects: Hospital cost frontiers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 77-105.
  22. Emmanuel Guerre & Isabelle Perrigne & Quang Vuong, 2000. "Optimal Nonparametric Estimation of First-Price Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 525-574, May.
  23. Patrick Bajari, 2001. "Comparing competition and collusion: a numerical approach," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 187-205.
  24. Michael K. Price, 2008. "Using The Spatial Distribution Of Bidders To Detect Collusion In The Marketplace: Evidence From Timber Auctions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 399-417.
  25. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Ossard, Herve & Vuong, Quang, 1995. "Econometrics of First-Price Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 953-80, July.
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