IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v501y2025ics0304380024003752.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling past and future impacts of droughts on tree mortality and carbon storage in Norway spruce stands in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Anders, Tim
  • Hetzer, Jessica
  • Knapp, Nikolai
  • Forrest, Matthew
  • Langan, Liam
  • Tölle, Merja Helena
  • Wellbrock, Nicole
  • Hickler, Thomas

Abstract

Between 2018 and 2020, Central Europe experienced severe droughts. Leading to unprecedented increase in Norway spruce (Picea abies) tree mortality, which has not been reproduced in process-based forest or dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). In this study, we developed logistic regression models for drought-related Norway spruce mortality using climate and weather anomalies and mortality data from the forest monitoring plot network of the German crown condition survey. We integrated these models into the DVM LPJ-GUESS.

Suggested Citation

  • Anders, Tim & Hetzer, Jessica & Knapp, Nikolai & Forrest, Matthew & Langan, Liam & Tölle, Merja Helena & Wellbrock, Nicole & Hickler, Thomas, 2025. "Modelling past and future impacts of droughts on tree mortality and carbon storage in Norway spruce stands in Germany," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 501(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:501:y:2025:i:c:s0304380024003752
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110987
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024003752
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110987?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bohn, Friedrich J. & Frank, Karin & Huth, Andreas, 2014. "Of climate and its resulting tree growth: Simulating the productivity of temperate forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 278(C), pages 9-17.
    2. Lu, Xun & White, Halbert, 2014. "Robustness checks and robustness tests in applied economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 194-206.
    3. A. Park Williams & Craig D. Allen & Alison K. Macalady & Daniel Griffin & Connie A. Woodhouse & David M. Meko & Thomas W. Swetnam & Sara A. Rauscher & Richard Seager & Henri D. Grissino-Mayer & Jeffre, 2013. "Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 292-297, March.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    5. Atticus E. L. Stovall & Herman Shugart & Xi Yang, 2019. "Tree height explains mortality risk during an intense drought," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-6, December.
    6. Holtmann, Anne & Huth, Andreas & Bohn, Friedrich & Fischer, Rico, 2024. "Assessing the impact of multi-year droughts on German forests in the context of increased tree mortality," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    7. Tomáš Hlásny & Louis König & Paal Krokene & Marcus Lindner & Claire Montagné-Huck & Jörg Müller & Hua Qin & Kenneth Raffa & Mart-Jan Schelhaas & Miroslav Svoboda & Heli Viiri & Rupert Seidl, 2021. "Bark Beetle Outbreaks in Europe: State of Knowledge and Ways Forward for Management," Post-Print hal-03726465, HAL.
    8. Wellbrock, Nicole & Eickenscheidt, Nadine & Hilbrig, Lutz & Dühnelt, Petra-Elena & Holzhausen, Marieanna & Bauer, Arthur & Dammann, Inge & Strich, Sigrid & Engels, Friedrich & Wauer, Alexandra, 2018. "Leitfaden und Dokumentation zur Waldzustandserhebung in Deutschland," Thünen Working Papers 84, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    9. Cornelius Senf & Allan Buras & Christian S. Zang & Anja Rammig & Rupert Seidl, 2020. "Excess forest mortality is consistently linked to drought across Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    10. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    3. Qun'ou Jiang & Yuwei Cheng & Qiutong Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Yuanjing Qi, 2015. "Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, September.
    4. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    5. Alison Rothwell & Brad Ridoutt & William Bellotti, 2016. "Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, December.
    6. Bagdon, Benjamin A. & Huang, Ching-Hsun & Dewhurst, Stephen & Meador, Andrew Sánchez, 2017. "Climate Change Constrains the Efficiency Frontier When Managing Forests to Reduce Fire Severity and Maximize Carbon Storage," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 201-214.
    7. Farahmand, Shekoofeh & Hilmi, Nathalie & Cinar, Mine & Safa, Alain & Lam, Vicky W.Y. & Djoundourian, Salpie & Shahin, Wassim & Ben Lamine, Emna & Schickele, Alexandre & Guidetti, Paolo & Allemand, Den, 2023. "Climate change impacts on Mediterranean fisheries: A sensitivity and vulnerability analysis for main commercial species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    8. Zhang, Feng & Zhang, Wenjuan & Li, Ming & Zhang, Yuan & Li, Fengmin & Li, Changbin, 2017. "Is crop biomass and soil carbon storage sustainable with long-term application of full plastic film mulching under future climate change?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 67-77.
    9. João Antonio Lorençone & Lucas Eduardo Oliveira Aparecido & Pedro Antonio Lorençone & Guilherme Botega Torsoni & Rafael Fausto Lima & José Reinaldo Silva Cabral de Moraes & Glauco Souza Rolim, 2025. "Agricultural zoning of Coffea arabica in Brazil for current and future climate scenarios: implications for the coffee industry," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 4143-4166, February.
    10. Jose A. Marengo & Ana Paula M. A. Cunha & Carlos A. Nobre & Germano G. Ribeiro Neto & Antonio R. Magalhaes & Roger R. Torres & Gilvan Sampaio & Felipe Alexandre & Lincoln M. Alves & Luz A. Cuartas & K, 2020. "Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 °C," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2589-2611, September.
    11. Isaac Kwesi Nooni & Daniel Fiifi T. Hagan & Guojie Wang & Waheed Ullah & Jiao Lu & Shijie Li & Mawuli Dzakpasu & Nana Agyemang Prempeh & Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian, 2021. "Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-17, June.
    12. Holtmann, Anne & Huth, Andreas & Bohn, Friedrich & Fischer, Rico, 2024. "Assessing the impact of multi-year droughts on German forests in the context of increased tree mortality," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    13. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    14. Tokimatsu, Koji & Konishi, Satoshi & Ishihara, Keiichi & Tezuka, Tetsuo & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2016. "Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1483-1493.
    15. Yann Chavaillaz & Sylvie Joussaume & Amaury Dehecq & Pascale Braconnot & Robert Vautard, 2016. "Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 187-200, July.
    16. Nie, Yaoyu & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Huang, Guorui & Ding, Qun & Yu, Le & Li, Haoran & Ji, Duoying, 2019. "Assessment of the potential and distribution of an energy crop at 1-km resolution from 2010 to 2100 in China – The case of sweet sorghum," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 395-407.
    17. Wang, Xiaowen & Li, Liang & Ding, Yibo & Xu, Jiatun & Wang, Yunfei & Zhu, Yan & Wang, Xiaoyun & Cai, Huanjie, 2021. "Adaptation of winter wheat varieties and irrigation patterns under future climate change conditions in Northern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    18. repec:plo:pone00:0168697 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jia-Min Jiang & Lei Jin & Lei Huang & Wen-Ting Wang, 2022. "The Future Climate under Different CO 2 Emission Scenarios Significantly Influences the Potential Distribution of Achnatherum inebrians in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-15, April.
    20. Gaudard, Ludovic, 2015. "Pumped-storage project: A short to long term investment analysis including climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 91-99.
    21. Liu, Qiuyu & Peng, Changhui & Schneider, Robert & Cyr, Dominic & Liu, Zelin & Zhou, Xiaolu & Kneeshaw, Daniel, 2021. "TRIPLEX-Mortality model for simulating drought-induced tree mortality in boreal forests: Model development and evaluation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:501:y:2025:i:c:s0304380024003752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.