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Adaptation of winter wheat varieties and irrigation patterns under future climate change conditions in Northern China

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  • Wang, Xiaowen
  • Li, Liang
  • Ding, Yibo
  • Xu, Jiatun
  • Wang, Yunfei
  • Zhu, Yan
  • Wang, Xiaoyun
  • Cai, Huanjie

Abstract

Climate change poses great challenges for food security and water use. This study aimed to investigate the response of winter wheat in Northern China to climate change and propose corresponding strategies to maintain yield and crop water productivity (WPc). Climate model projections from the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to drive the process-based soil–water–atmosphere–plant (SWAP) agro-hydrological model. The SWAP parameters were optimized by the Parameter Estimation program (PEST), which extended the crop model to the regional scale. SWAP was used to simulate responses of crop growth, evapotranspiration (ET), and yield to baseline (2006–2012) climate and two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for future climate conditions. The results indicated that PEST had high optimization efficiency and calibrated SWAP performed well (average relative error < 20.87 % and normalized root mean square error < 25.83 %). Compared with baseline, the maximum and minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.05) by 6.47°C and 8.59°C, respectively. The cumulative precipitation during the growing season increased by 303.22–316.12 mm. Warming significantly (P < 0.05) reduced the growth period of winter wheat by 25.3–34.7 days, especially in the emergence–heading stage. Path analysis revealed that significant (P < 0.05) change of precipitation was a determining factor in increasing ET. The adverse effect of temperature increase offset the promotion of yield due to radiation, and ultimately led to a yield reduction of 35.57–41.14 %. The optimization scenario indicated that late-maturing varieties and irrigation adjustment could improve yield (up to 38.21 %) and WPc (up to 44.30 %) under future climate conditions. Implementing irrigation at an early growing stage (joining and heading) was beneficial to increase yield and WPc. We recommend combining late-maturing varieties with irrigation adjustments to maintain yield and WPc under future climate conditions.

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  • Wang, Xiaowen & Li, Liang & Ding, Yibo & Xu, Jiatun & Wang, Yunfei & Zhu, Yan & Wang, Xiaoyun & Cai, Huanjie, 2021. "Adaptation of winter wheat varieties and irrigation patterns under future climate change conditions in Northern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:243:y:2021:i:c:s0378377420301530
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106409
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    2. Wang, Bo & van Dam, Jos & Yang, Xiaolin & Ritsema, Coen & Du, Taisheng & Kang, Shaozhong, 2023. "Reducing water productivity gap by optimizing irrigation regime for winter wheat-summer maize system in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    3. A. Mukherjee & S. Saha & S. C. Lellyett & (corresponding author) A.K.S. Huda, 2022. "Impact Of Climate Change And Variability On Food Security In The Asia-Pacific Region," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 29(1), pages 119-141, May.
    4. Zhang, Chao & Xie, Ziang & Wang, Qiaojuan & Tang, Min & Feng, Shaoyuan & Cai, Huanjie, 2022. "AquaCrop modeling to explore optimal irrigation of winter wheat for improving grain yield and water productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).

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