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Groundwater sustainability assessment under climate change scenarios using integrated modelling approach and multi-criteria decision method

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  • Mundetia, Nitika
  • Sharma, Devesh
  • Sharma, Aditya

Abstract

Groundwater is the main preferred source of freshwater resources and therefore its use, management, and sustainability are closely related to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Escalating water demands along with climate change scenarios has raised serious concern over groundwater sustainability in the state of Rajasthan in India. It put further challenges to fulfill regional-level sustainable development targets. The present study is focused on assessing groundwater sustainability under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using an integrated modelling approach for the Khari River basin. For hydrological assessment, the SWAT model was selected to obtain recharge and evapotranspiration in the historical and future periods. The results showed that average recharge will decrease in the RCP 4.5 from 119.4 mm in the decade 2011–2020 to 57.30 mm in the decade 2040–50, and 108 mm in RCP 8.5. The Visual MODFLOW model was also used to estimate the future groundwater level in the basin using recharge & evapotranspiration data, hydrogeological data, and groundwater level for the basin. Under Multi-Criteria Decision Methods (MCDM), the Shannon Entropy method was selected for weightage, and the results showed that hydrology is the most important factor according to the weights obtained. TOPSIS result shows that sub-basin 1 and sub-basin 5 are at the lower ranking based on the groundwater sustainability index in comparison to the other three sub-basins in 2011–2020 as well as in 2040–2050. The sub-basins need better management and conservation practices to achieve SDGs components for groundwater sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mundetia, Nitika & Sharma, Devesh & Sharma, Aditya, 2024. "Groundwater sustainability assessment under climate change scenarios using integrated modelling approach and multi-criteria decision method," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 487(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:487:y:2024:i:c:s0304380023002740
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110544
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