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Projecting effects of land use change on human well-being through changes in ecosystem services

Author

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  • Yee, Susan H.
  • Paulukonis, E.
  • Simmons, C.
  • Russell, M.
  • Fulford, R.
  • Harwell, L.
  • Smith, L.M.

Abstract

Changing patterns of land use, temperature, and precipitation are expected to impact ecosystem services, including water quality and quantity, buffering of extreme events, soil quality, and biodiversity. Scenario analyses that link such impacts on ecosystem services to human well-being may be valuable in anticipating potential consequences of change that are meaningful to people living in a community. Ecosystem services provide numerous benefits to community well-being, including living standards, health, cultural fulfillment, education, and connection to nature. Yet assessments of impacts of ecosystem services on human well-being have largely focused on human health or monetary benefits (e.g. market values). This study applies a human well-being modeling framework to demonstrate the potential impacts of alternative land use scenarios on multi-faceted components of human well-being through changes in ecosystem services (i.e., ecological benefits functions). The modeling framework quantitatively defines these relationships in a way that can be used to project the influence of ecosystem service flows on indicators of human well-being, alongside social service flows and economic service flows. Land use changes are linked to changing indicators of ecosystem services through the application of ecological production functions. The approach is demonstrated for two future land use scenarios in a Florida watershed, representing different degrees of population growth and environmental resource protection. Increasing rates of land development were almost universally associated with declines in ecosystem services indicators and associated indicators of well-being, as natural ecosystems were replaced by impervious surfaces that depleted the ability of ecosystems to buffer air pollutants, provide habitat for biodiversity, and retain rainwater. Scenarios with increases in indicators of ecosystem services, however, did not necessarily translate into increases in indicators of well-being, due to covarying changes in social and economic services indicators. The approach is broadly transferable to other communities or decision scenarios and serves to illustrate the potential impacts of changing land use on ecosystem services and human well-being.

Suggested Citation

  • Yee, Susan H. & Paulukonis, E. & Simmons, C. & Russell, M. & Fulford, R. & Harwell, L. & Smith, L.M., 2021. "Projecting effects of land use change on human well-being through changes in ecosystem services," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:440:y:2021:i:c:s0304380020304233
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109358
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    2. Bello, Al-Amin Danladi & Haniffah, Mohd Ridza Mohd, 2021. "Modelling the effects of urbanization on nutrients pollution for prospective management of a tropical watershed: A case study of Skudai River watershed," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 459(C).
    3. Cepic, Michael & Bechtold, Ulrike & Wilfing, Harald, 2022. "Modelling human influences on biodiversity at a global scale–A human ecology perspective," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 465(C).
    4. Jing Zhang & Xueming Li & Tongliga Bao & Zhenghai Li & Chong Liu & Yuan Xu, 2021. "Linking Demographic Factors, Land Use, Ecosystem Services, and Human Well-Being: Insights from an Sandy Landscape, Uxin in Inner Mongolia, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Zhang, Zhengrong & Li, Xuemei & Liu, Xinyu & Zhao, Kaixin, 2024. "Dynamic simulation and projection of land use change using system dynamics model in the Chinese Tianshan mountainous region, central Asia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 487(C).
    6. Peng Tian & Jialin Li & Luodan Cao & Ruiliang Pu & Hongbo Gong & Haitao Zhang & Huilin Chen & Xiaodong Yang, 2021. "Assessing Matching Characteristics and Spatial Differences between Supply and Demand of Ecosystem Services: A Case Study in Hangzhou, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, May.

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