IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v248y2025ics0165176525000485.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk contagion in production-bank bilayer networks

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Hongtao
  • Huang, Shupei

Abstract

The close interconnection between the real economy and the financial system implies that shocks to the real economy inevitably impact the financial system. However, existing research typically examines the financial system in isolation. This study introduces a production-bank bilayer network model that integrates both aspects. Using input–output data and banking data from China, we conduct simulation analyses to explore how shocks on production networks trigger financial risk contagion. Our findings demonstrate the mechanisms and pathways through which disruptions in the production layer propagate to the financial layer, highlighting the systemic risks arising from these interdependencies. We reveal the direct and indirect impacts of shocks and identify threshold for triggering systemic risk. This research provides a new framework for understanding the interaction between the real economy and the financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Hongtao & Huang, Shupei, 2025. "Risk contagion in production-bank bilayer networks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:248:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525000485
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112211
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176525000485
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112211?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Bardoscia & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Guido Caldarelli, 2015. "DebtRank: A Microscopic Foundation for Shock Propagation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    3. Gabrielle Demange, 2018. "Contagion in Financial Networks: A Threat Index," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 955-970, February.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    6. Matthew O Jackson & Agathe Pernoud, 2024. "Credit Freezes, Equilibrium Multiplicity, and Optimal Bailouts in Financial Networks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(7), pages 2017-2062.
    7. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2014. "Financial Networks and Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3115-3153, October.
    8. Matthew O. Jackson & Agathe Pernoud, 2021. "Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 171-202, August.
    9. Klages-Mundt, Ariah & Minca, Andreea, 2022. "Optimal intervention in economic networks using influence maximization methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1136-1148.
    10. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    11. Benjamin Golub & Matthew Elliott, 2022. "Networks and Economic Fragility," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 665-696, August.
    12. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2022. "Economic Networks: Theory and Computation," Papers 2203.11972, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Spiros Bougheas & Adam Hal Spencer, 2022. "Fire sales and ex ante valuation of systemic risk: A financial equilibrium networks approach," Discussion Papers 2022/04, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    2. Bougheas, Spiros & Harvey, David I. & Kirman, Alan & Nelson, Douglas, 2024. "Systemic risk in banking, fire sales, and macroeconomic disasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Cuba, Walter & Rodriguez-Martinez, Anahi & Chavez, Diego A. & Caccioli, Fabio & Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin, 2021. "A network characterization of the interbank exposures in Peru," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(3).
    4. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2022. "Economic Networks: Theory and Computation," Papers 2203.11972, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    5. Allouch, Nizar & Jalloul, Maya & Duncan, Alfred, 2023. "Strategic default in financial networks," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 941-954.
    6. Yuzuka Kashiwagi & Yasuyuki Todo & Petr Matous, 2021. "Propagation of economic shocks through global supply chains—Evidence from Hurricane Sandy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1186-1220, November.
    7. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous Firms and the Micro Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-35, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Daniel Goya, 2019. "Chinese competition and network effects on the extensive margin," Working Papers 2019-01, Escuela de Negocios y Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso.
    9. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D. M. Nguyen, 2022. "Intersectoral network‐based channel of aggregate TFP shocks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3897-3910, October.
    10. Ketelaars, Martijn & Borm, Peter & Herings, P.J.J., 2024. "The Characterization of Clearing Payments in Financial Networks," Discussion Paper 2024-013, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Brancaccio, Emiliano & Giammetti, Raffaele & Lopreite, Milena & Puliga, Michelangelo, 2019. "Monetary policy, crisis and capital centralization in corporate ownership and control networks: A B-Var analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 55-66.
    12. Shi, Qing & Sun, Xiaoqi & Jiang, Yile, 2022. "Concentrated commonalities and systemic risk in China's banking system: A contagion network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew V. Leduc, 2022. "Supply Network Formation and Fragility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2701-2747, August.
    14. Agathe Sadeghi & Zachary Feinstein, 2024. "Statistical Validation of Contagion Centrality in Financial Networks," Papers 2404.14337, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    15. Carro, Adrian & Stupariu, Patricia, 2024. "Uncertainty, non-linear contagion and the credit quality channel: An application to the Spanish interbank market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Wiersema, Garbrand & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M. & Wetzer, Thom & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2023. "Scenario-free analysis of financial stability with interacting contagion channels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    17. Jiangtao FU & Petr MATOUS & Yasuyuki TODO, 2018. "Trade Credit in Global Supply Chains," Discussion papers 18049, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Anja Sebbesen & Harald Oberhofer, 2024. "The propagation of business expectations within the European Union," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1082-1103, September.
    19. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Chacha, Peter Wankuru & Kirui, Benard Kipyegon & Wiedemann, Verena, 2024. "Supply Chains in Times of Crisis: Evidence from Kenya’s Production Network," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bilayer networks; Production networks; Bank networks; Financial contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:248:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525000485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.