IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v228y2023ics0165176523002082.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do analysts anchor on public signals in forecasting the target price of disruptive technology firms?

Author

Listed:
  • Caylor, Marcus
  • Hong, Duanping
  • Park, Hyungshin
  • Qu, Hong

Abstract

Public signals serve as an anchor for higher order beliefs when forecasting stock price, a target that is determined by the average beliefs of investors. We predict that the anchoring effect is particularly strong when forecasting the stock price of disruptive technology firms, a fundamentally ambiguous target. Consistent with this prediction, we find that analysts’ price forecasts revisions are more responsive to earnings news for disruptive than non-disruptive technology firms. In contrast, this differential responsiveness does not exist for earnings forecasts, as earnings realizations do not depend on the average beliefs of investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Caylor, Marcus & Hong, Duanping & Park, Hyungshin & Qu, Hong, 2023. "Do analysts anchor on public signals in forecasting the target price of disruptive technology firms?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:228:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523002082
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111183
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176523002082
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111183?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2014. "Measuring agents’ reaction to private and public information in games with strategic complementarities," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(1), pages 61-77, March.
    2. Baeriswyl Romain & Cornand Camille, 2016. "The Predominant Role of Signal Precision in Experimental Beauty Contests," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 267-301, January.
    3. Banerjee, Sanjay & Qu, Hong & Zhao, Ran, 2022. "Clarity trumps content: An experiment on information acquisition in beauty contests," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 381-407.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    5. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "An analysis of intertemporal and cross-sectional determinants of earnings response coefficients," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 143-181, July.
    6. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "What do professional forecasters' stock market expectations tell us about herding, information extraction and beauty contests?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-129.
    7. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    8. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 719-752.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alba Ruiz-Buforn & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Andrea Morone, 2022. "Single vs. multiple disclosures in an experimental asset market with information acquisition," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(13-15), pages 1513-1539, October.
    2. Ruiz-Buforn, Alba & Camacho-Cuena, Eva & Morone, Andrea & Alfarano, Simone, 2021. "Overweighting of public information in financial markets: A lesson from the lab," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Banerjee, Sanjay & Qu, Hong & Zhao, Ran, 2022. "Clarity trumps content: An experiment on information acquisition in beauty contests," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 381-407.
    4. Ruiz-Buforn, Alba & Alfarano, Simone & Camacho-Cuena, Eva & Morone, Andrea, 2018. "Crowding out effect and traders' overreliance on public information in financial markets: a lesson from the lab," MPRA Paper 88866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2014. "Reducing Overreaction To Central Banks' Disclosures: Theory And Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 1087-1126, August.
    6. Boun My, Kene & Cornand, Camille & Dos Santos Ferreira, Rodolphe, 2021. "Public information and the concern for coordination," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Shapiro, Dmitry & Shi, Xianwen & Zillante, Artie, 2014. "Level-k reasoning in a generalized beauty contest," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 308-329.
    8. Trabelsi, Emna & Hichri, Walid, 2021. "Central Bank Transparency with (semi-)public Information: Laboratory Experiments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2022. "The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Nonbeauty Contest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2125-2148, October.
    10. Alfarano, Simone & Camacho, Eva & Petrovic, Marko & Provenzano, Giulia, 2014. "The Interplay between Public and Private Information in Asset Markets: Theoretical and Experimental Approaches," FinMaP-Working Papers 9, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    11. Cox, Caleb & Davis, Douglas & Korenok, Oleg & Lightle, John, 2023. "Stress tests and information disclosure: An experimental analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    12. Alfarano, Simone & Camacho, Eva & Morone, Andrea, 2015. "Do investors rely too much on public information to be justified by its accuracy? An experimental study," FinMaP-Working Papers 30, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    13. Ruiz-Buforn, Alba & Alfarano, Simone & Morone, Andrea, 2019. "Welfare effects of public information in a laboratory financial market," MPRA Paper 95424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2015. "Macro-expérimentation autour des fonctions des banques centrales," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 3-47.
    15. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July.
    16. Gabriel Desgranges & Celine Rochon, 2008. "Conformism, Public News and Market Effciency," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe16, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    17. Baeriswyl Romain & Cornand Camille, 2016. "The Predominant Role of Signal Precision in Experimental Beauty Contests," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 267-301, January.
    18. Nina Boyarchenko & Valentin Haddad & Matthew Plosser, 2016. "The Federal Reserve and market confidence," Staff Reports 773, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Jank, Stephan & Roling, Christoph & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "Flying under the radar: The effects of short-sale disclosure rules on investor behavior and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 209-233.
    20. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CESifo Working Paper Series 3390, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disruptive technology; Valuation; Analyst forecasts; Anchoring; Higher order beliefs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:228:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523002082. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.