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The exchange rate and fiscal consolidation episodes in emerging market economies

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  • Mati, Amine
  • Thornton, John

Abstract

An analysis of fiscal consolidations in emerging market economies during 1970-2004 suggests that exchange rate depreciation raises the probability of a fiscal consolidation being successful, including when controlling for debt, growth, the composition of the consolidation, and degree of democracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mati, Amine & Thornton, John, 2008. "The exchange rate and fiscal consolidation episodes in emerging market economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 115-118, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:100:y:2008:i:1:p:115-118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lane, Philip R, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, Spring.
    2. Heylen, Freddy & Everaert, Gerdie, 2000. "Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Multivariate Analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 103-124, October.
    3. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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    5. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. " Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 423-441, September.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
    9. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal stabilizations: When do they work and why," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1047-1074, October.
    10. Lambertini Luisa & Tavares José A, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for the EMU," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, December.
    11. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    12. Lane, Philip R. & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "The importance of composition of fiscal policy: evidence from different exchange rate regimes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2253-2279, September.
    13. Nigel A Chalk, 2002. "Structural Balances and All That; Which Indicators to Use in Assessing Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 02/101, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Perotti, Roberto, 1998. " The Political Economy of Fiscal Consolidations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 367-394, March.
    15. Jürgen von Hagen & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Rolf Strauch, 2001. "Budgetary Consolidation in EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 148, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Sanjeev Gupta & Emanuele Baldacci & Benedict Clements & Erwin R. Tiongson, 2005. "What sustains fiscal consolidations in emerging market countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 307-321.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leszek Balcerowicz, 2010. "Sovereign Bankruptcy in the European Union in the Comparative Perspective," Working Paper Series WP10-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Diniz, André, 2016. "Effects of fiscal consolidations in Latin America," Textos para discussão 423, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    3. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2014. "The Effect of Development Aid Unpredictability and Migrants’ Remittances on Fiscal Consolidation in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 168-190.
    4. Julio Escolano & Laura Jaramillo & Carlos Mulas-Granados & G. Terrier, 2014. "How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 14/179, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2012. "The Effect of Development Aid Unpredictability and Migrants’ Remittances on Fiscal Consolidation in Developing Countries," Working Papers 201210, CERDI.
    6. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2012. "The Effect of Development Aid Unpredictability and Migrants' Remittances on Fiscal Consolidation in Developing Countries," Working Papers halshs-00677108, HAL.

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