Degrowth futures as power struggles: Scenarios of accumulation, sabotage, and resistance

Efforts to envision post-growth futures and degrowth pathways have multiplied, yet most scenario exercises rarely interrogate how political–economic forces shape their plausibility. This article develops a framework for analyzing degrowth futures through the lens of Capital as Power (CasP). It translates CasP's account of accumulation—organized through capitalization, sabotage, and state–capital entanglement—into a causal loop diagram (CLD). This approach clarifies how degrowth transformations interact with capitalist power through distinct feedback dynamics. Four scenarios are examined: sabotaged transition, where degrowth initiatives are redirected to sustain accumulation; post-growth differential accumulation, where reduced growth remains compatible with scarcity-based profits; contested transformation, where degrowth confronts capital and sparks escalating conflict; and systemic reordering, where confidence in capitalization unravels and capitalist order destabilizes. It shows that reduced growth does not automatically weaken dominant capital, as stagnation and scarcity can sustain differential accumulation. For degrowth, this shows that futures must be conceived as transformations of power relations: constraining the routes through which dominant capital increases its relative power, undermining the restrictions imposed on alternatives, and challenging the confidence capitalists have in the continuity of the order they rule. Degrowth futures may therefore be better understood as struggles over the enforcement or destabilization of capitalist power.