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The Transition to a Sustainable Prosperity-A Stock-Flow-Consistent Ecological Macroeconomic Model for Canada

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  • Jackson, Tim
  • Victor, Peter A.

Abstract

This paper presents a stock-flow consistent (SFC) macroeconomic simulation model for Canada. We use the model to generate three very different stories about the future of the Canadian economy, covering the half century from 2017 to 2067: a Base Case Scenario in which current trends and relationships are projected into the future, a Carbon Reduction Scenario in which measures are introduced specifically designed to reduce Canada's carbon emissions, and a Sustainable Prosperity Scenario which incorporates additional measures to improve environmental, social and financial conditions across society. The performance of the economy is tracked using two composite indicators constructed especially for this study: an environmental burden index (EBI) which describes the environmental performance of the model; and a composite sustainable prosperity index (SPI) which is based on a weighted average of seven economic, social and environmental performance indicators. Contrary to the widely accepted view, the results suggest that ‘green growth’ (in the Carbon Reduction Scenario) may be slower than ‘brown growth’. More importantly, we show (in the Sustainable Prosperity Scenario) that improved environmental and social outcomes are possible even as the growth rate declines to zero.

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  • Jackson, Tim & Victor, Peter A., 2020. "The Transition to a Sustainable Prosperity-A Stock-Flow-Consistent Ecological Macroeconomic Model for Canada," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:177:y:2020:i:c:s0921800920301427
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106787
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2017. "A stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 191-207.
    2. Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert & Franco, Carol & Lawn, Philip & Talberth, John & Jackson, Tim & Aylmer, Camille, 2013. "Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 57-68.
    3. Victor, Peter A. & Rosenbluth, Gideon, 2007. "Managing without growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2-3), pages 492-504, March.
    4. Tim Jackson, 2019. "The storied state of economics," Nature, Nature, vol. 574(7779), pages 473-474, October.
    5. Jackson, Tim, 2019. "The Post-growth Challenge: Secular Stagnation, Inequality and the Limits to Growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 236-246.
    6. Tim Jackson, 2019. "Managing without growth: exploring possibilities," Chapters, in: Managing without Growth, Second Edition, chapter 11, pages 271-303, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Jackson, Tim & Victor, Peter A., 2016. "Does slow growth lead to rising inequality? Some theoretical reflections and numerical simulations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 206-219.
    8. Hardt, Lukas & O'Neill, Daniel W., 2017. "Ecological Macroeconomic Models: Assessing Current Developments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 198-211.
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    3. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria, 2022. "Assessing climate policies: an ecological stock–flow consistent perspective," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 38039, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    4. Kennedy, Christopher, 2022. "The Intersection of Biophysical Economics and Political Economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    5. Pierre-Marie Aubert & Baptiste Gardin & Élise Huber & Michele Schiavo & Christophe Alliot, 2021. "Designing Just Transition Pathways: A Methodological Framework to Estimate the Impact of Future Scenarios on Employment in the French Dairy Sector," Post-Print hal-03653089, HAL.
    6. Oberholzer, Basil, 2023. "Post-growth transition, working time reduction, and the question of profits," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    7. Teemu Koskimäki, 2021. "Places to Intervene in a Socio-Ecological System: A Blueprint for Transformational Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-17, August.
    8. Joan Hereu-Morales & César Valderrama, 2022. "Towards a Sustainability-Based Society: An Analysis of Fundamental Values from the Perspective of Economics and Philosophy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-14, July.
    9. Radpour, Saeidreza & Gemechu, Eskinder & Ahiduzzaman, Md & Kumar, Amit, 2021. "Development of a framework for the assessment of the market penetration of novel in situ bitumen extraction technologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    10. Jacques, Pierre & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Yilmaz, Devrim & Jeanmart, Hervé & Godin, Antoine, 2023. "Assessing the economic consequences of an energy transition through a biophysical stock-flow consistent model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    11. Pierre-Marie Aubert & Baptiste Gardin & Élise Huber & Michele Schiavo & Christophe Alliot, 2021. "Designing Just Transition Pathways: A Methodological Framework to Estimate the Impact of Future Scenarios on Employment in the French Dairy Sector," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, November.
    12. Gerold, Stefanie & Hoffmann, Maja & Aigner, Ernest, 2023. "Towards a critical understanding of work in ecological economics: A postwork perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    13. Koskimäki, Teemu, 2023. "Targeting socioeconomic transformations to achieve global sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    14. Alexander Vaninsky, 2021. "Multiobjective restructuring aimed at green economic growth," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 110-130, March.

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