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Downscaling down under: towards degrowth in integrated assessment models

Author

Listed:
  • Jarmo S. Kikstra
  • Mengyu Li
  • Paul E. Brockway
  • Jason Hickel
  • Lorenz Keysser
  • Arunima Malik
  • Joeri Rogelj
  • Bas van Ruijven
  • Manfred Lenzen

Abstract

IPCC reports, to date, have not featured ambitious mitigation scenarios with degrowth in high-income regions. Here, using MESSAGEix-Australia, we create 51 emissions scenarios for Australia with near-term GDP growth going from +3%/year to rapid reductions (−5%/year) to explore to what extent a traditional integrated assessment model (IAM) can represent degrowth from an economic starting point, not just energy demand reduction. We find that stagnating GDP per capita reduces the mid-century need for upscaling solar and wind energy by about 40% compared to the SSP2 growth baseline, and limits future material needs for renewables. Still, solar and wind energy in 2030 is more than quadruple that of 2020. Faster reductions in energy demand may entail higher socio-cultural feasibility concerns, depending on the policies involved. Strong reductions in inequality reduce the risk of lowered access to decent living services. We discuss research needs and possible IAM extensions to improve post-growth and degrowth scenario modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarmo S. Kikstra & Mengyu Li & Paul E. Brockway & Jason Hickel & Lorenz Keysser & Arunima Malik & Joeri Rogelj & Bas van Ruijven & Manfred Lenzen, 2024. "Downscaling down under: towards degrowth in integrated assessment models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 576-606, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:36:y:2024:i:4:p:576-606
    DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2023.2301443
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    Cited by:

    1. Edwards, Zac, 2025. "Degrowth: What's in it for the labour movement?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    2. Fevereiro, José Bruno R.T. & Lowe, Benjamin H., 2025. "Macroeconomic implications for the Global South of a green transition in the Global North," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    3. Mediavilla, Margarita & Lifi, Mohamed & Ferreras-Alonso, Noelia & Miguel, Luis Javier & de Blas, Ignacio, 2025. "Analysis of the competition between land, energy and food using the TERRA module of WILIAM System Dynamics IAM," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Rob Van Eynde & Kevin J. Dillman & Jefim Vogel & Daniel W. O'Neill, 2025. "What is required for a post-growth model?," Papers 2508.07974, arXiv.org.
    5. de Bortoli, Anne & Chanel, Alexis & Chabas, Camille & Greffe, Titouan & Louineau, Estelle, 2025. "More rationality and inclusivity are imperative in reference transition scenarios based on IAMs and shared socioeconomic pathways - recommendations for prospective LCA," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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