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Climate change and reindeer herding – A bioeconomic model on the impact of climate change on harvesting profits for Saami reindeer herders in Norway and Sweden

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  • Helgesen, Irmelin Slettemoen
  • Johannesen, Anne Borge
  • Bostedt, Göran
  • Sandorf, Erlend Dancke

Abstract

The Arctic is warming three times faster than the global average. Rising temperatures could reduce the snow-covered season and increase plant productivity in the spring, fall and summer. While this may increase carrying capacity of pastures and growth of semi-domesticated reindeer, rising temperatures could also lead to increase the frequency of ice-locked pastures, which may negatively affect reindeer body mass, survival, and reproductive success. We create a stage-structured bioeconomic model of reindeer herding that incorporates such counteracting effects of climate change on the economics of reindeer herding in Norway and Sweden. The model is calibrated using historical data on reindeer numbers and slaughter weights, in combination with historical weather data. We find that one more day with ice-locked pastures has a greater negative impact than the benefit of earlier spring. Then the model is used to simulate possible future economic impacts of three climate change scenarios, under different assumptions about herders' information about future weather conditions. The negative impact of icing outweighs any positive impact of earlier spring for all scenarios, and the potential loss is greater the less information herders have about future weather conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Helgesen, Irmelin Slettemoen & Johannesen, Anne Borge & Bostedt, Göran & Sandorf, Erlend Dancke, 2024. "Climate change and reindeer herding – A bioeconomic model on the impact of climate change on harvesting profits for Saami reindeer herders in Norway and Sweden," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:223:y:2024:i:c:s0921800924001241
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108227
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tahvonen, Olli & Kumpula, Jouko & Pekkarinen, Antti-Juhani, 2014. "Optimal harvesting of an age-structured, two-sex herbivore–plant system," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 348-361.
    2. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    3. Bostedt, Göran & Lundgren, Tommy, 2010. "Accounting for cultural heritage -- A theoretical and empirical exploration with focus on Swedish reindeer husbandry," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 651-657, January.
    4. Anne Borge Johannesen & Jon Olaf Olaussen & Anders Skonhoft, 2019. "Livestock and Carnivores: Economic and Ecological Interactions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 295-317, September.
    5. Bostedt, Goran, 2005. "Pastoralist Economic Behavior: Empirical Results from Reindeer Herders in Northern Sweden," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Pekkarinen, Antti-Juhani & Kumpula, Jouko & Tahvonen, Olli, 2015. "Reindeer management and winter pastures in the presence of supplementary feeding and government subsidies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 312(C), pages 256-271.
    7. Anne Borge Johannesen & Anders Skonhoft, 2009. "Local Common Property Exploitation with Rewards," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(4), pages 637-654.
    8. Anne Johannesen & Anders Skonhoft, 2011. "Livestock as Insurance and Social Status: Evidence from Reindeer Herding in Norway," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(4), pages 679-694, April.
    9. Anne Borge Johannesen & Anders Skonhoft & Anders Nielsen, 2013. "Livestock management at northern latitudes. Potential economic effects of climate change in sheep farming," Working Paper Series 14213, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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