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Remaining Loyal to Our Soil: A Prospective Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion on Global Food Security

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Listed:
  • Sartori, Martina
  • Ferrari, Emanuele
  • M'Barek, Robert
  • Philippidis, George
  • Boysen-Urban, Kirsten
  • Borrelli, Pasquale
  • Montanarella, Luca
  • Panagos, Panos

Abstract

Soil loss by water erosion represents a key threat to land degradation worldwide. This study employs an integrated quantitative modelling approach to estimate its long-term global sustainability impacts. The global biophysical model estimates a mean increase of soil erosion rates of between 30 and 66% over the period 2015–2070 under alternative climate-economic scenarios, assuming different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. In a subsequent step, projected soil erosion rates are converted into land productivity losses and inputted into an economic global simulation model to identify those regional hotspots where the greatest market tensions are expected to occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Sartori, Martina & Ferrari, Emanuele & M'Barek, Robert & Philippidis, George & Boysen-Urban, Kirsten & Borrelli, Pasquale & Montanarella, Luca & Panagos, Panos, 2024. "Remaining Loyal to Our Soil: A Prospective Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion on Global Food Security," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:219:y:2024:i:c:s092180092300366x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Asfaw, Solomon & Pallante, Giacomo & Palma, Alessandro, 2020. "Distributional impacts of soil erosion on agricultural productivity and welfare in Malawi," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    2. Zhao, Xin & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Tyner, Wally, 2017. "Modeling land physically in CGE models: new insights on intensive and extensive margins," Conference papers 332816, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Sartori, Martina & Philippidis, George & Ferrari, Emanuele & Borrelli, Pasquale & Lugato, Emanuele & Montanarella, Luca & Panagos, Panos, 2019. "A linkage between the biophysical and the economic: Assessing the global market impacts of soil erosion," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 299-312.
    4. Christine Alewell & Bruno Ringeval & Cristiano Ballabio & David A. Robinson & Panos Panagos & Pasquale Borrelli, 2020. "Global phosphorus shortage will be aggravated by soil erosion," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Kang Ma & Yuxiu Zhang & Mengying Ruan & Jing Guo & Tuanyao Chai, 2019. "Land Subsidence in a Coal Mining Area Reduced Soil Fertility and Led to Soil Degradation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-14, October.
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    7. Montanarella, Luca & Panagos, Panos, 2021. "The relevance of sustainable soil management within the European Green Deal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    9. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Soil erosion; Prospective interdisciplinary/integrated modelling; Land productivity loss; Computable general equilibrium; Land footprints; Climate-economic scenarios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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