IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolec/v219y2024ics092180092300366x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Remaining Loyal to Our Soil: A Prospective Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion on Global Food Security

Author

Listed:
  • Sartori, Martina
  • Ferrari, Emanuele
  • M'Barek, Robert
  • Philippidis, George
  • Boysen-Urban, Kirsten
  • Borrelli, Pasquale
  • Montanarella, Luca
  • Panagos, Panos

Abstract

Soil loss by water erosion represents a key threat to land degradation worldwide. This study employs an integrated quantitative modelling approach to estimate its long-term global sustainability impacts. The global biophysical model estimates a mean increase of soil erosion rates of between 30 and 66% over the period 2015–2070 under alternative climate-economic scenarios, assuming different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. In a subsequent step, projected soil erosion rates are converted into land productivity losses and inputted into an economic global simulation model to identify those regional hotspots where the greatest market tensions are expected to occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Sartori, Martina & Ferrari, Emanuele & M'Barek, Robert & Philippidis, George & Boysen-Urban, Kirsten & Borrelli, Pasquale & Montanarella, Luca & Panagos, Panos, 2024. "Remaining Loyal to Our Soil: A Prospective Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion on Global Food Security," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:219:y:2024:i:c:s092180092300366x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092180092300366X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhao, Xin & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Tyner, Wally, 2017. "Modeling land physically in CGE models: new insights on intensive and extensive margins," Conference papers 332816, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Sartori, Martina & Philippidis, George & Ferrari, Emanuele & Borrelli, Pasquale & Lugato, Emanuele & Montanarella, Luca & Panagos, Panos, 2019. "A linkage between the biophysical and the economic: Assessing the global market impacts of soil erosion," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 299-312.
    3. Kang Ma & Yuxiu Zhang & Mengying Ruan & Jing Guo & Tuanyao Chai, 2019. "Land Subsidence in a Coal Mining Area Reduced Soil Fertility and Led to Soil Degradation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-14, October.
    4. Asfaw, Solomon & Pallante, Giacomo & Palma, Alessandro, 2020. "Distributional impacts of soil erosion on agricultural productivity and welfare in Malawi," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    5. Christine Alewell & Bruno Ringeval & Cristiano Ballabio & David A. Robinson & Panos Panagos & Pasquale Borrelli, 2020. "Global phosphorus shortage will be aggravated by soil erosion," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. repec:aer:wpaper:437 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Montanarella, Luca & Panagos, Panos, 2021. "The relevance of sustainable soil management within the European Green Deal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    9. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
    10. Rattan Lal, 2015. "Restoring Soil Quality to Mitigate Soil Degradation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-21, May.
    11. Adrian Chappell & Jeffrey Baldock & Jonathan Sanderman, 2016. "The global significance of omitting soil erosion from soil organic carbon cycling schemes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 187-191, February.
    12. Zhao, Xin & Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Tyner, Wallace E., 2017. "Modeling land physically in CGE models: new insights on intensive and extensive margins," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258363, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emanuele Ferrari & Christian Elleby & Beyhan DE JONG & Robert M'barek & Ignacio PEREZ DOMINGUEZ, 2024. "Cumulative economic impact of upcoming trade agreements on EU agriculture," JRC Research Reports JRC135540, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Emanuele Ferrari & Thomas Chatzopoulos & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Pierre Boulanger & Kirsten Boysen-Urban & Mihaly Himics & Robert M’barek, 2021. "Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture: 2021 update," JRC Research Reports JRC123037, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Philippidis, George & M'Barek, Robert & Urban-Boysen, Kirsten & Van Zeist, Willem-Jan, 2023. "Exploring economy-wide sustainable conditions for EU bio-chemical activities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    4. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    5. Grażyna Żukowska & Magdalena Myszura-Dymek & Szymon Roszkowski & Magdalena Olkiewicz, 2023. "Selected Properties of Soil-like Substrates Made from Mine Coal Waste and Their Effect on Plant Yields," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-19, September.
    6. Roson, Roberto, 2022. "Education, Labor Force Composition, and Growth A General Equilibrium Analysis," Conference papers 333421, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    8. Roberto Roson & Emanuela Ghignoni, 2023. "A Numerical Simulation of Educational Mismatch in the Italian Labor Market," Working Papers in Public Economics 241, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    9. Zhang, Qingyong & Mao, Xianqiang & Lu, Jianhong & Guo, Zhi & Duman, Zaenhaer & Chen, Yongpeng & Song, Peng & Tu, Kevin, 2024. "EU-Russia energy decoupling in combination with the updated NDCs impacts on global fossil energy trade and carbon emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    10. Strutt, Anna & Corong, Erwin & Kravchenko, Alexey & Duval, Yann, 2021. "Carbon border adjustment policies: Potential impacts on the Asia-Pacific region," Conference papers 330212, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. González, Javier & Latorre, María C. & Valverde, Gabriela Ortiz, 2022. "A comprehensive short and long-run assessment on the impact of the EU-Mercosur agreement on Brazil," Conference papers 333391, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. García Merchán, Gabriela, 2023. "Agricultural Subsidies in the Economy of Ecuador – An Assessment of Impact Through CGE Modelling," Papers 1413, World Trade Institute.
    13. Sen Chakraborty, Kritika & Chakraborty, Avinandan & Berrens, Robert P., 2023. "Valuing soil erosion control investments in Nigerian agricultural lands: A hedonic pricing model," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    14. Bekkers, Eddy & Corong, Erwin L. & Métivier, Jeanne & Orlov, Daniil, 2023. "How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2023-03, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    15. Mustafa Nur Istanbuly & Josef Krása & Bahman Jabbarian Amiri, 2022. "How Socio-Economic Drivers Explain Landscape Soil Erosion Regulation Services in Polish Catchments," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-13, February.
    16. Tsigas, Marinos & Bernard, Jennifer, 2020. "Costly labor adjustments to trade shocks in CGE analysis," Conference papers 333159, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Ilaria Fusacchia & Alessandro Antimiani & Luca Salvatici, 2021. "An assessment of import tariff costs for Italian exporting firms," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 31-56, April.
    18. Remus Prăvălie & Pasquale Borrelli & Panos Panagos & Cristiano Ballabio & Emanuele Lugato & Adrian Chappell & Gonzalo Miguez-Macho & Federico Maggi & Jian Peng & Mihai Niculiță & Bogdan Roșca & Cristi, 2024. "A unifying modelling of multiple land degradation pathways in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Gonzalez Cabrera, Carlos Javier & Latorre, María C. & Ortiz Valverde, Gabriela, 2020. "A Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) assessment of the short and long-run impact on Brazil of the European Union – Mercosur Trade Agreement," Conference papers 333242, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Walmsley, Terrie & Rose, Adam & John, Richard & Wei, Dan & Hlávka, Jakub P. & Machado, Juan & Byrd, Katie, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Soil erosion; Prospective interdisciplinary/integrated modelling; Land productivity loss; Computable general equilibrium; Land footprints; Climate-economic scenarios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:219:y:2024:i:c:s092180092300366x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.