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Remaining Loyal to Our Soil: A Prospective Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion on Global Food Security

Author

Listed:
  • Sartori, Martina
  • Ferrari, Emanuele
  • M'Barek, Robert
  • Philippidis, George
  • Boysen-Urban, Kirsten
  • Borrelli, Pasquale
  • Montanarella, Luca
  • Panagos, Panos

Abstract

Soil loss by water erosion represents a key threat to land degradation worldwide. This study employs an integrated quantitative modelling approach to estimate its long-term global sustainability impacts. The global biophysical model estimates a mean increase of soil erosion rates of between 30 and 66% over the period 2015–2070 under alternative climate-economic scenarios, assuming different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. In a subsequent step, projected soil erosion rates are converted into land productivity losses and inputted into an economic global simulation model to identify those regional hotspots where the greatest market tensions are expected to occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Sartori, Martina & Ferrari, Emanuele & M'Barek, Robert & Philippidis, George & Boysen-Urban, Kirsten & Borrelli, Pasquale & Montanarella, Luca & Panagos, Panos, 2024. "Remaining Loyal to Our Soil: A Prospective Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion on Global Food Security," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:219:y:2024:i:c:s092180092300366x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108103
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Soil erosion; Prospective interdisciplinary/integrated modelling; Land productivity loss; Computable general equilibrium; Land footprints; Climate-economic scenarios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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