The Phillips curve as a long-run phenomenon in a macroeconomic model with complex dynamics
After the presentation of the Phillips curve as an empirical regularity (Phillips ) economists and policy makers alike have tried to exploit it for policy purposes. Even before the oil shocks in the seventies and early eighties this has had mixed success only. With the advent of ''stagflation'' the Phillips curve seemed to be definitely dead but nowadays a majority of economists seems to agree that an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment holds as long as changes in output and prices are demand-driven. Stagflation occurs only when supply-side shocks occur. Recently, new explanations have been advanced both to investigate theoretically and estimate empirically the Phillips curve and to assess its potential for economic policy. (See for example the special issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 44, N.2, 1999) on ''The Return of the Phillips Curve''.) In the present paper we aim to contribute to this discussion by showing that the Phillips curve may be obtained as the image of a chaotic attractor of the state variables of a non-linear dynamical system describing the evolution of an economy. This has two important consequences: on the one hand the Phillips curve in our model is a true long-run phenomenon and, on the other, it cannot be used for policy purposes. Our model is based on an overlapping-generations non-tatonnement approach involving temporary equilibria with stochastic rationing in each period and price adjustment between successive periods. In this way we are able to obtain complex sequences of consistent allocations allowing for recurrent unemployment and inflation.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Weinrich, Gerd, 1997. "Endogenous Fixprices and Sticky Price Adjustment of Risk-averse Firms," MPRA Paper 6302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 1991.
"Sticky Prices as Coordination Failure,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 539-52, June.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002.
"Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,"
3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Weinrich, Gerd, 1984. "On the theory of effective demand under stochastic rationing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 95-115, October.
- Bean, Charles R., 1994. "European unemployment: A retrospective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 523-534, April.
- Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
- C Bean, 1992.
"European Unemployment: A Survey,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0071, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1989.
"Toward a Theory of Rigidities,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 364-69, May.
- Gale, Douglas, 1981. "Large Economies with Trading Uncertainty: A Correction," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 363-64, April.
- Shaked, Avner & Sutton, John, 1984. "Involuntary Unemployment as a Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1351-64, November.
- Carlton, Dennis W, 1986.
"The Rigidity of Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 637-58, September.
- Benassy Jean-pascal, 1974.
"Neokeynesian disequilibrium theory in a monetary economy,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1975. "Neo-Keynesian Disequilibrium Theory in a Monetary Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 503-23, October.
- Salop, Steven C, 1979. "A Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 117-25, March.
- Gale, Douglas, 1979. "Large Economies with Trading Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 319-38, April.
- Solow, Robert M., 1979. "Another possible source of wage stickiness," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 79-82.
- Dreze, Jacques H, 1975. "Existence of an Exchange Equilibrium under Price Rigidities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(2), pages 301-20, June.
- Gerd Weinrich, 1997. "Endogenous fixprices and sticky price adjustment of risk-averse firms," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 283-305, October.
- Green, Jerry, 1980. "On the Theory of Effective Demand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 341-53, June.
- Weinrich, Gerd, 1982. "On the Theory of Effective Demand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 174-75, March.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Ito, Takatoshi, 1985. " On Macroeconomic Equilibrium with Stochastic Rationing," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(1), pages 66-88.
- Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1996. "Keynesian Involuntary Unemployment and Sticky Nominal Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1564-85, November.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1980. "Effective Demand and Stochastic Rationing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 339-55, January.
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 1999. "A neoclassical model of the Phillips curve relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 165-193, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:28:y:2003:i:1:p:1-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.