The Phillips Curve as a Long-Run Phenomenon in a Macroeconomic Model with Complex Dynamics
After the presentation of the Phillips curve as an empirical regularity (Phillips 1958 ) economists and policy makers alike have tried to exploit it for policy purposes. Even before the oil shocks in the seventies and early eighties this has had mixed success only. With the advent of "stagflation" the Phillips curve seemed to be definitely dead but nowadays a majority of economists seems to agree that an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment holds as long as changes in output and prices are demand-driven. Stagflation occurs only when supply-side shocks occur. Recently, new explanations have been advanced both to investigate theoretically and estimate empirically the Phillips curve and to assess its potential for economic policy. (See for example the special issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 44, N.2, 1999) on "The Return of the Phillips Curve".) In the present paper we aim to contribute to this discussion by showing that the Phillips curve may be obtained as the image of a chaotic attractor of the state variables of a non-linear dynamical system describing the evolution of an economy. This has two important consequences: on the one hand the Phillips curve in our model is a true long-run phenomenon and, on the other, it cannot be used for policy purposes. Our model is based on an overlapping-generations non-tatonnement approach involving temporary equilibria with stochastic rationing in each period and price adjustment between successive periods. In this way we are able to obtain complex sequences of consistent allocations allowing for recurrent unemployment and inflation.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||01 Apr 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/conference/SCE2001/SCE2001.html|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001.
"Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1980. "Effective Demand and Stochastic Rationing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 339-55, January.
- C Bean, 1992.
"European Unemployment: A Survey,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0071, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Weinrich, Gerd, 1997. "Endogenous Fixprices and Sticky Price Adjustment of Risk-averse Firms," MPRA Paper 6302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 1999. "A neoclassical model of the Phillips curve relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 165-193, October.
- Benassy Jean-pascal, 1974.
"Neokeynesian disequilibrium theory in a monetary economy,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1975. "Neo-Keynesian Disequilibrium Theory in a Monetary Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 503-23, October.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Ito, Takatoshi, 1985. " On Macroeconomic Equilibrium with Stochastic Rationing," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(1), pages 66-88.
- Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 1991.
"Sticky Prices as Coordination Failure,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 539-52, June.
- Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1996. "Keynesian Involuntary Unemployment and Sticky Nominal Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1564-85, November.
- Gerd Weinrich, 1997. "Endogenous fixprices and sticky price adjustment of risk-averse firms," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 283-305, October.
- DREZE, Jacques H., .
"Existence of an exchange equilibrium under price rigidites,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
-225, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Dreze, Jacques H, 1975. "Existence of an Exchange Equilibrium under Price Rigidities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(2), pages 301-20, June.
- Bean, Charles R., 1994. "European unemployment: A retrospective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 523-534, April.
- Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1989.
"Toward a Theory of Rigidities,"
NBER Working Papers
2938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Salop, Steven C, 1979. "A Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 117-25, March.
- Shaked, Avner & Sutton, John, 1984. "Involuntary Unemployment as a Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1351-64, November.
- Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
- Gale, Douglas, 1979. "Large Economies with Trading Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 319-38, April.
- Solow, Robert M., 1979. "Another possible source of wage stickiness," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 79-82.
- Dennis W. Carlton, 1986.
"The Rigidity of Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
1813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Weinrich, Gerd, 1984. "On the theory of effective demand under stochastic rationing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 95-115, October.
- Weinrich, Gerd, 1982. "On the Theory of Effective Demand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 174-75, March.
- Green, Jerry, 1980. "On the Theory of Effective Demand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 341-53, June.
- Gale, Douglas, 1981. "Large Economies with Trading Uncertainty: A Correction," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 363-64, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.