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Police autonomy, data-driven strategies, and violence: Evidence from Brazil’s policing reform

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  • Parfitt, Rafael
  • Pantaleão, Bruno
  • Kopittke, Alberto

Abstract

We evaluate the impact of a results-based management program in Brazil designed to improve police service delivery through more efficient resource allocation, data-driven personnel deployment, and targeted interventions in high-violence areas. Exploiting the staggered implementation of the program across 2,355 municipalities in nine Brazilian states over two decades, we estimate its causal effect on homicide rates using a staggered difference-in-differences approach. We find that the reform substantially reduced homicide rates following implementation. The effects are particularly pronounced among vulnerable subgroups, such as Black individuals and those with low education levels. Additionally, we document larger reductions in homicides in municipalities with higher baseline levels of violence, suggesting that results-based police management is especially effective in the most violent areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Parfitt, Rafael & Pantaleão, Bruno & Kopittke, Alberto, 2026. "Police autonomy, data-driven strategies, and violence: Evidence from Brazil’s policing reform," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:178:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825001543
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103603
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    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption

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