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Statistical analysis of discrete-valued time series using categorical ARMA models

  • Song, Peter X.-K.
  • Freeland, R. Keith
  • Biswas, Atanu
  • Zhang, Shulin
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    This paper concerns the analysis of discrete-valued time series using a class of categorical ARMA models recently proposed by Biswas and Song (2009). Such ARMA processes are flexible to model discrete-valued time series, allowing a wide range of marginal distributions such as binomial, multinomial, Poisson and nominal/ordinal categorical probability mass functions. To apply these models in the data analysis this paper focuses on the development of a needed statistical toolbox, which includes maximum likelihood estimation and inference, model selection, and goodness-of-fit test. Particularly in AR models a bias-corrected AIC statistic is derived for the order selection, while a randomized conditional moment (RCM) test is furnished to examine the goodness-of-fit. Finite-sample performances of the proposed methods are examined through simulation studies, in which the bias-corrected AIC is shown to outperform the traditional AIC and BIC statistics and the RCM test achieves desirable power. As part of the numeric illustration, a data analysis of categorical time series on infant sleep quality is provided by the application of this new toolbox.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167947312002435
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 57 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 112-124

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:57:y:2013:i:1:p:112-124
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda

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    1. Herman J. Bierens & Werner Ploberger, 1997. "Asymptotic Theory of Integrated Conditional Moment Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1129-1152, September.
    2. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. de Jong, Robert M., 1996. "The Bierens test under data dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 1-32.
    4. Bierens, Herman J, 1990. "A Consistent Conditional Moment Test of Functional Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1443-58, November.
    5. Biswas, Atanu & Song, Peter X.-K., 2009. "Discrete-valued ARMA processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(17), pages 1884-1889, September.
    6. Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & White, Halbert, 1998. "Consistent Specification Testing With Nuisance Parameters Present Only Under The Alternative," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 295-325, June.
    7. Bierens, Herman J., 1982. "Consistent model specification tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 105-134, October.
    8. Bahjat F. Qaqish, 2003. "A family of multivariate binary distributions for simulating correlated binary variables with specified marginal means and correlations," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(2), pages 455-463, June.
    9. Benjamin M.A. & Rigby R.A. & Stasinopoulos D.M., 2003. "Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 214-223, January.
    10. Christian Weiß, 2008. "Thinning operations for modeling time series of counts—a survey," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 319-341, August.
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