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Bayesian inference with stochastic volatility models using continuous superpositions of non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes

  • Griffin, J.E.
  • Steel, M.F.J.

Continuous superpositions of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes are proposed as a model for asset return volatility. An interesting class of continuous superpositions is defined by a Gamma mixing distribution which can define long memory processes. In contrast, previously studied discrete superpositions cannot generate this behaviour. Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference are developed which allow the estimation of such models with leverage effects. The continuous superposition model is applied to both stock index and exchange rate data. The continuous superposition model is compared with a two-component superposition on the daily Standard and Poor's 500 index from 1980 to 2000.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 54 (2010)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 2594-2608

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:54:y:2010:i:11:p:2594-2608
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda

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  1. Josep Perello & Jaume Masoliver & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2004. "Multiple time scales in volatility and leverage correlations: a stochastic volatility model," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 27-50.
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  3. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2006. "Inference with non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes for stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 605-644, October.
  4. Creal, Drew D., 2008. "Analysis of filtering and smoothing algorithms for Lévy-driven stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2863-2876, February.
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  6. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
  7. Elisa Nicolato & Emmanouil Venardos, 2003. "Option Pricing in Stochastic Volatility Models of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 445-466.
  8. S. P. Brooks & P. Giudici & G. O. Roberts, 2003. "Efficient construction of reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo proposal distributions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 3-39.
  9. Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter & Leopold Sögner, 2009. "Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models based on OU processes with marginal Gamma law," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 159-179, March.
  10. Matthew P. S. Gander & David A. Stephens, 2007. "Simulation and inference for stochastic volatility models driven by Lévy processes," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(3), pages 627-646.
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