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Multiple time scales in volatility and leverage correlation: A stochastic volatility model

Author

Listed:
  • Josep Perello
  • Jaume Masoliver
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

    (Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management
    CEA Saclay;)

Abstract

Financial time series exhibit two different type of non linear correlations: (i) volatility autocorrelations that have a very long range memory, on the order of years, and (ii) asymmetric return-volatility (or `leverage') correlations that are much shorter ranged. Different stochastic volatility models have been proposed in the past to account for both these correlations. However, in these models, the decay of the correlations is exponential, with a single time scale for both the volatility and the leverage correlations, at variance with observations. We extend the linear Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility model by assuming that the mean reverting level is itself random. We find that the resulting three-dimensional diffusion process can account for different correlation time scales. We show that the results are in good agreement with a century of the Dow Jones index daily returns (1900-2000), with the exception of crash days.

Suggested Citation

  • Josep Perello & Jaume Masoliver & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2003. "Multiple time scales in volatility and leverage correlation: A stochastic volatility model," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 50001, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:sfi:sfiwpa:50001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Lorig, 2010. "Time-Changed Fast Mean-Reverting Stochastic Volatility Models," Papers 1010.5203, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2012.
    2. Zhiyuan Liu & M. Dashti Moghaddam & R. A. Serota, 2017. "Distributions of Historic Market Data - Stock Returns," Papers 1711.11003, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
    3. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2010. "Bayesian inference with stochastic volatility models using continuous superpositions of non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2594-2608, November.
    4. M. Dashti Moghaddam & Zhiyuan Liu & R. A. Serota, 2018. "Distributions of Historic Market Data -- Implied and Realized Volatility," Papers 1804.05279, arXiv.org.
    5. Chen, Rongda & Zhou, Hanxian & Yu, Lean & Jin, Chenglu & Zhang, Shuonan, 2021. "An efficient method for pricing foreign currency options," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Subbotin, Alexandre, 2009. "Volatility Models: from Conditional Heteroscedasticity to Cascades at Multiple Horizons," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 15(3), pages 94-138.
    7. D. Delpini & G. Bormetti, 2015. "Stochastic volatility with heterogeneous time scales," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 1597-1608, October.
    8. M. Dashti Moghaddam & Zhiyuan Liu & R. A. Serota, 2019. "Distributions of Historic Market Data -- Relaxation and Correlations," Papers 1907.05348, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    9. Dashti Moghaddam, M. & Serota, R.A., 2021. "Combined multiplicative–Heston model for stochastic volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 561(C).
    10. Jeonggyu Huh & Jaegi Jeon & Yong-Ki Ma, 2020. "Static Hedges of Barrier Options Under Fast Mean-Reverting Stochastic Volatility," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 185-210, January.
    11. Oriol Pont & Antonio Turiel & Conrad Perez-Vicente, 2009. "Description, modelling and forecasting of data with optimal wavelets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 4(1), pages 39-54, June.
    12. Chicheportiche, Rémy & Chakraborti, Anirban, 2017. "A model-free characterization of recurrences in stationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 312-318.
    13. Alexander Subbotin & Thierry Chauveau & Kateryna Shapovalova, 2009. "Volatility Models: from GARCH to Multi-Horizon Cascades," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00390636, HAL.
    14. Reigneron, Pierre-Alain & Allez, Romain & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2011. "Principal regression analysis and the index leverage effect," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(17), pages 3026-3035.
    15. Jaume Masoliver & Josep Perello, 2006. "Multiple time scales and the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 423-433.
    16. Kim, See-Woo & Kim, Jeong-Hoon, 2019. "Variance swaps with double exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 149-169.
    17. Eduardo Abi Jaber & Shaun & Li, 2024. "Volatility models in practice: Rough, Path-dependent or Markovian?," Papers 2401.03345, arXiv.org.
    18. Pierre-Alain Reigneron & Romain Allez & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2010. "Principal Regression Analysis and the index leverage effect," Papers 1011.5810, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2011.
    19. Deng, Guohe, 2020. "Pricing perpetual American floating strike lookback option under multiscale stochastic volatility model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    20. Danilo Delpini & Giacomo Bormetti, 2012. "Stochastic Volatility with Heterogeneous Time Scales," Papers 1206.0026, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    21. L. Borland & J. -Ph. Bouchaud, 2005. "On a multi-timescale statistical feedback model for volatility fluctuations," Papers physics/0507073, arXiv.org.
    22. Lisa Borland & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2005. "On a multi-timescale statistical feedback model for volatility fluctuations," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500059, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    23. Yang, Honglin & Wan, Hong & Zha, Yong, 2013. "Autocorrelation type, timescale and statistical property in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(7), pages 1681-1693.
    24. Liu, Li & Pan, Zhiyuan, 2020. "Forecasting stock market volatility: The role of technical variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 55-65.
    25. Buchbinder, G.L. & Chistilin, K.M., 2007. "Multiple time scales and the empirical models for stochastic volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 168-178.

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    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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