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Analysis of a Class of Likelihood Based Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Models including Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Models in Financial Economics

  • Lancelot F. James
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    In a series of recent papers Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard introduce an attractive class of continuous time stochastic volatility models for financial assets where the volatility processes are functions of positive Ornstein-Uhlenbeck(OU) processes. This models are known to be substantially more flexible than Gaussian based models. One current problem of this approach is the unavailability of a tractable exact analysis of likelihood based stochastic volatility models for the returns of log prices of stocks. With this point in mind, the likelihood models of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard are viewed as members of a much larger class of models. That is likelihoods based on n conditionally independent Normal random variables whose mean and variance are representable as linear functionals of a common unobserved Poisson random measure. The analysis of these models is facilitated by applying the methods in James (2005, 2002), in particular an Esscher type transform of Poisson random measures; in conjunction with a special case of the Weber-Sonine formula. It is shown that the marginal likelihood may be expressed in terms of a multidimensional Fourier-cosine transform. This yields tractable forms of the likelihood and also allows a full Bayesian posterior analysis of the integrated volatility process. A general formula for the posterior density of the log price given the observed data is derived, which could potentially have applications to option pricing. We extend the models to include leverage effects in section 5. It is shown that inference does not necessarily require simulation of random measures. Rather, classical numerical integration can be used in the most general cases.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2005
    Date of revision: Aug 2005
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0503055
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    1. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2003. "Integrated OU Processes and Non-Gaussian OU-based Stochastic Volatility Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 30(2), pages 277-295.
    2. Elisa Nicolato & Emmanouil Venardos, 2003. "Option Pricing in Stochastic Volatility Models of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 445-466.
    3. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
    4. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    5. Gareth O. Roberts & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Petros Dellaportas, 2004. "Bayesian inference for non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility processes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(2), pages 369-393.
    6. Geman, Hélyette & Carr, Peter & Madan, Dilip B. & Yor, Marc, 2003. "Stochastic Volatility for Levy Processes," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/1392, Paris Dauphine University.
    7. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, 06.
    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    9. Ishwaran, Hemant & James, Lancelot F., 2004. "Computational Methods for Multiplicative Intensity Models Using Weighted Gamma Processes: Proportional Hazards, Marked Point Processes, and Panel Count Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 175-190, January.
    10. Fred Espen Benth & Kenneth Hvistendahl Karlsen & Kristin Reikvam, 2003. "Merton's portfolio optimization problem in a Black and Scholes market with non-Gaussian stochastic volatility of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 215-244.
    11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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