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Small-sample improvements in the statistical analysis of seasonally cointegrated systems

  • Cubadda, Gianluca
  • Omtzigt, Pieter

This paper proposes new iterative reduced-rank regression procedures for seasonal cointegration analysis. The suggested methods are motivated by the idea that modelling the cointegration restrictions jointly at different frequencies may increase efficiency in finite samples. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the new tests and estimators perform well with respect to already existing statistical procedures.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 49 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 333-348

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:49:y:2005:i:2:p:333-348
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  1. Granger, C.W.J. & Siklos, P.L., 1993. "Systematic Sampling, Temporal Aggregation, Seasonal Adjustment, and Cointegration: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93001, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  2. Johansen, S ren, 2000. "A Bartlett Correction Factor For Tests On The Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 740-778, October.
  3. Löf, Mårten & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "On Forecasting Cointegrated Seasonal Time Series," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 350, Stockholm School of Economics.
  4. Gianluca Cubadda, 2000. "Complex Reduced Rank Models for Seasonally Cointegrated Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0092, Econometric Society.
  5. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Kunst, R.M., 1998. "On the role of seasonal intercepts in seasonal cointegration," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9820, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  6. Omtzigt Pieter & Fachin Stefano, 2002. "Bootstrapping and Bartlett corrections in the cointegrated VAR model," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0212, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  7. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  8. Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115.
  9. Johansen, S. & Schaumburg, E., 1997. "Likelihood Analysis of Seasonal Cointegration," Economics Working Papers eco97/16, European University Institute.
  10. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9609, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. Ghysels, E. & Granger, C.W.J. & Siklos, P.L., 1995. "Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data Filtring Process," Cahiers de recherche 9517, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  12. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 1998. "Cointegration Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 651-678, December.
  13. Brendstrup, Bjarne & Hylleberg, Svend & Nielsen, Morten Rregaard & Skipper, Lars & Stentoft, Lars, 2004. "Seasonality In Economic Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(03), pages 362-394, June.
  14. Phillips, Peter C B, 1994. "Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 73-93, January.
  15. Karim M. Abadir & Paolo Paruolo, 1997. "Two Mixed Normal Densities from Cointegration Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 671-680, May.
  16. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 1994. "Deterministic seasonal models and spurious regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 259-272, April.
  17. Ahn, Sung K. & Reinsel, Gregory C., 1994. "Estimation of partially nonstationary vector autoregressive models with seasonal behavior," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 317-350, June.
  18. Lee, Hahn Shik, 1992. "Maximum likelihood inference on cointegration and seasonal cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 1-47.
  19. Hylleberg, Svend & Jorgensen, Clara & Sorensen, Nils Karl, 1993. "Seasonality in Macroeconomic Time Series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 321-35.
  20. Cubadda, Gianluca, 1999. "Common Cycles in Seasonal Non-stationary Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 273-91, May-June.
  21. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
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