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U.S. demographics and saving: Predictions of three saving models

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  • Auerbach, Alan J.
  • Cai, Jinyong
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

Abstract

This paper compares the predictions of three different saving models with respect to the impact of projected U.S. demographic change on future U.S. saving rates. The three models are the life cycle model, the infinite horizon altruism model, and a reduced form econometric model. The findings for the different models indicate a great range of possible paths of future U.S. saving. However, the three models concur in predicting a peak in the U.S. national saving rate in the near future (within 15 years), followed by a significant decline in the saving rate thereafter. In fact, the findings suggest the strong possibility of negative U.S. saving rates beginning after 2030.
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Suggested Citation

  • Auerbach, Alan J. & Cai, Jinyong & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1991. "U.S. demographics and saving: Predictions of three saving models," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 135-156, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:crcspp:v:34:y:1991:i::p:135-156
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    Cited by:

    1. James Banks & Richard Blundell, 1994. "Household Saving Behavior in the United Kingdom," NBER Chapters, in: International Comparisons of Household Saving, pages 169-206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bettendorf, Leon J.H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 2006. "Population ageing and pension reform in a small open economy with non-traded goods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2389-2424, December.
    3. Li, Shiyu & Lin, Shuanglin, 2023. "Housing property tax, economic growth, and intergenerational welfare: The case of China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 233-251.
    4. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2006. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics Of Demographic Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 349-370, June.
    5. Naoto Yamauchi, 1996. "The Effects of Aging on National Saving and Asset Accumulation in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan, pages 131-151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Dániel Baksa & Zsuzsa Munkácsi, 2019. "More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 67, Bank of Lithuania.
    7. Shiyu Li & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Shuanglin Lin & Wing Thye Woo & Yunyun Jiang, 2016. "How Much Will China Save? Projecting China's National Savings Through 2040," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 255-274, September.

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