IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/corfin/v91y2025ics0929119925000148.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The stock market reaction to bond refinancing issues with and without senior debt

Author

Listed:
  • Grossmann, Axel
  • Ngo, Thanh

Abstract

Using a sample of 3228 bond issues of U.S. publicly traded companies from 1990 to 2021, we find a statistically significant negative stock market reaction surrounding the announcements of debt issues aimed at refinancing outstanding debt when compared to debt issues for other purposes. The results are not driven by public debt being used to refinance “inside” debt, such as bank loans. This finding aligns with signaling theory, which suggests that replacing existing debt with new debt may indicate unfavorable conditions: difficulty servicing current debt obligations with existing resources or a lack of future growth opportunities. These negative market reactions are mitigated, however, when firms use less risky senior debt to refinance existing debt. Senior notes serve as a strategic move by firms to counter the negative market perception associated with debt refinancing issues. The findings are particularly more pronounced for the decades after 1999, albeit with a reduced magnitude in the 2010s, suggesting that the Global Financial Crisis in the 2000s made markets more sensitive to negative signals related to public debt refinancing. The main findings are robust to potential biases brought about by measurement errors, simultaneity, and endogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Grossmann, Axel & Ngo, Thanh, 2025. "The stock market reaction to bond refinancing issues with and without senior debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:91:y:2025:i:c:s0929119925000148
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102746
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119925000148
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102746?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Carayannopoulos & Subhankar Nayak, 2013. "Debt Issuance Under Rule 144A and Equity Valuation Effects," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(01), pages 1-40.
    2. Simon H. Kwan & Willard T. Carleton, 2010. "Financial Contracting and the Choice between Private Placement and Publicly Offered Bonds," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 907-929, August.
    3. Heng An & Qun Wu & Zhonghua Wu, 2016. "REIT Crash Risk and Institutional Investors," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 527-558, November.
    4. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
    5. Roland Gillet & Hubert De La Bruslerie, 2010. "The Consequences of Issuing Convertible Bonds: Dilution and/or Financial Restructuring?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(4), pages 552-584, September.
    6. Harvey, Campbell R. & Lins, Karl V. & Roper, Andrew H., 2004. "The effect of capital structure when expected agency costs are extreme," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, October.
    7. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    8. Stephen A. Ross, 1977. "The Determination of Financial Structure: The Incentive-Signalling Approach," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(1), pages 23-40, Spring.
    9. Uday Chandra & Nandkumar (Nandu) Nayar, 2008. "The Information Content of Private Debt Placements," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9‐10), pages 1164-1195, November.
    10. Shyam-Sunder, Lakshmi, 1991. "The Stock Price Effect of Risky versus Safe Debt," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 549-558, December.
    11. Mikkelson, Wayne H. & Partch, M. Megan, 1986. "Valuation effects of security offerings and the issuance process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 31-60.
    12. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    13. John Affleck‐Graves & Robert E. Miller, 2003. "The Information Content Of Calls Of Debt: Evidence From Long‐Run Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 421-447, December.
    14. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    15. Miller, Darius P. & Puthenpurackal, John J., 2005. "Security fungibility and the cost of capital: evidence from global bonds," Working Paper Series 426, European Central Bank.
    16. Hutton, Amy P. & Marcus, Alan J. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2009. "Opaque financial reports, R2, and crash risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 67-86, October.
    17. Dietrich, J. Richard, 1984. "Effects of early bond refundings : An empirical investigation of security returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 67-96, April.
    18. Kim, Yongtae & Li, Haidan & Li, Siqi, 2014. "Corporate social responsibility and stock price crash risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    19. Shawn D. Howton & Shelly W. Howton & Steven B. Perfect, 1998. "The Market Reaction To Straight Debt Issues: The Effects Of Free Cash Flow," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 219-228, June.
    20. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. "The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-592, July.
    21. Matteo Arena, 2011. "The corporate choice between public debt, bank loans, traditional private debt placements, and 144A debt issues," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 391-416, April.
    22. Uday Chandra & Nandkumar (Nandu) Nayar, 2008. "The Information Content of Private Debt Placements," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9-10), pages 1164-1195.
    23. Dimitrios Koutmos & Konstantinos Bozos & Dionysia Dionysiou & Neophytos Lambertides, 2018. "The timing of new corporate debt issues and the risk-return tradeoff," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 943-978, May.
    24. Kim, Yong Cheol & Stulz, ReneM., 1988. "The Eurobond market and corporate financial policy : A test of the clientele hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 189-205, December.
    25. Bradshaw, Mark T. & Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G., 2006. "The relation between corporate financing activities, analysts' forecasts and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 53-85, October.
    26. James, Christopher, 1987. "Some evidence on the uniqueness of bank loans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-235, December.
    27. Miller, Darius P. & Puthenpurackal, John J., 2005. "Security Fungibility and the Cost of Capital: Evidence from Global Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 849-872, December.
    28. Edward J. Kane & Burton G. Malkiel, 1965. "Bank Portfolio Allocation, Deposit Variability, and the Availability Doctrine," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 79(1), pages 113-134.
    29. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Edwardo S, 1978. "Corporate Income Taxes, Valuation, and the Problem of Optimal Capital Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 103-114, January.
    30. Flannery, Mark J, 1986. "Asymmetric Information and Risky Debt Maturity Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 19-37, March.
    31. Toni M. Whited & Guojun Wu, 2006. "Financial Constraints Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 531-559.
    32. Johnson, W Bruce, 1988. "Debt Refunding and Shareholder Wealth: The Price Effects of Debt-for-Debt Exchange Offer Announcements," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-23, February.
    33. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5543 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Timothy Kruse & Tom Nohel & Steven K. Todd, 2014. "The Decision to Repurchase Debt," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 26(2), pages 85-93, June.
    35. Stein, Jeremy C., 1992. "Convertible bonds as backdoor equity financing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 3-21, August.
    36. Evrim Akdoğu & S. Burcu Avci & Serif Aziz Simsir, 2021. "Stock Price Reaction to Debt Offerings: The Turkish Evidence," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(14), pages 4070-4088, November.
    37. Chatterjee, Sris & Dhillon, Upinder S. & Ramirez, Gabriel G., 1995. "Coercive tender and exchange offers in distressed high-yield debt restructurings An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 333-360, July.
    38. de Jong, Abe & Roosenboom, Peter & Schramade, Willem, 2009. "Who benefits from bond tender offers in Europe?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 355-369, December.
    39. Miller, Merton H & Rock, Kevin, 1985. "Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1031-1051, September.
    40. Howton, Shawn D & Howton, Shelly W & Perfect, Steven B, 1998. "The Market Reaction to Straight Debt Issues: The Effects of Free Cash Flow," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 219-228, Summer.
    41. Dann, Larry Y. & Mikkelson, Wayne H., 1984. "Convertible debt issuance, capital structure change and financing-related information : Some new evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 157-186, June.
    42. Blackwell, David W. & Kidwell, David S., 1988. "An investigation of cost differences between public sales and private placements of debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-278, December.
    43. Sudip Datta & Mai Iskandar‐Datta & Ajay Patel, 2000. "Some Evidence on the Uniqueness of Initial Public Debt Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 715-743, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul-Olivier KLEIN, 2017. "Do Shareholders Value Bond Offerings? A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2017-04, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    2. Yushu Zhu, 2017. "Call it good, bad or no news? The valuation effect of debt issues," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(4), pages 1203-1229, December.
    3. Ghadeer Khartabiel & Ahmad Abu-Alkheil & Tunku Salha Tunku Ahmad & Walayet Khan, 2020. "Shari’ah-compliant Sukuk versus conventional bond announcements: is there a wealth effect?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1059-1073, April.
    4. Babl, Christian & Fausel, Andreas & Kuhlman, Leonard & Schiereck, Dirk, 2014. "Werteffekte auf Anleiheemissionen: Eine Note für deutsche Emittenten," Die Unternehmung - Swiss Journal of Business Research and Practice, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 68(1), pages 8-22.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young, 2021. "On the preferences of CoCo bond buyers and sellers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Uday Chandra & Nandkumar (Nandu) Nayar, 2008. "The Information Content of Private Debt Placements," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9‐10), pages 1164-1195, November.
    7. Cai, Kelly Nianyun & Zhu, Hui, 2016. "The market reaction to Yankee and Rule 144A bond offerings," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-17.
    8. Loncarski, I. & Ter Horst, J.R. & Veld, C.H., 2006. "Why do Companies issue Convertible Bond Loans? An Empirical Analysis for the Canadian Market," Discussion Paper 2006-65, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Fitriya Fauzi & Dani Foo & Abdul Basyith, 2017. "Islamic Bond Announcement: Is There Any Effect on Returns?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 327-347, April.
    10. Uday Chandra & Nandkumar (Nandu) Nayar, 2008. "The Information Content of Private Debt Placements," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9-10), pages 1164-1195.
    11. Pawel Bilinski & Abdulkadir Mohamed, 2015. "The Signaling Effect of Durations between Equity and Debt Issues," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(2-3), pages 159-190, May.
    12. Dimic, Nebojsa & Orlov, Vitaly & Piljak, Vanja, 2022. "First offshore bond issuances and firm valuation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Godlewski, Christophe J. & Weill, Laurent, 2020. "Does the type of debt matter? Stock market perception in Europe," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 247-256.
    14. Luc Renneboog & Peter G. Szilagyi, 2008. "Corporate Restructuring and Bondholder Wealth," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(4), pages 792-819, September.
    15. Pan Xu & Jun He & Daojuan Wang & Sofia A. Johan & Siwei Lin, 2024. "Could the simultaneous persistence of greater cash holdings and interest‐bearing debts affect stock price crash risk?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3226-3262, July.
    16. Harvey, Campbell R. & Lins, Karl V. & Roper, Andrew H., 2004. "The effect of capital structure when expected agency costs are extreme," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, October.
    17. Gomes, Armando & Phillips, Gordon, 2012. "Why do public firms issue private and public securities?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 619-658.
    18. de Jong, Abe & Veld, Chris, 2001. "An empirical analysis of incremental capital structure decisions under managerial entrenchment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1857-1895, October.
    19. Li, Hui & Liu, Hong & Siganos, Antonios, 2016. "A comparison of the stock market reactions of convertible bond offerings between financial and non-financial institutions: Do they differ?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 356-366.
    20. An, Zhe & Li, Donghui & Yu, Jin, 2015. "Firm crash risk, information environment, and speed of leverage adjustment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 132-151.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:91:y:2025:i:c:s0929119925000148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcorpfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.