Where is the beef? The costs of American aid and wartime China's hyperinflation

Upon the outbreak of the Pacific War (December 1941), the United States expanded its military assistance to allied nations including China under the “Lend-Lease Act”. However, the US defaulted the payment for their staff dispatched to and stationed in China which forced China to make huge sums of advance payment. The total costs of American military presence in China, including China's Reverse Lend-Lease contribution as a return to US military aid, amounted 15% to 22% of China's total fiscal expenditures. Since the beginning of 1937, the price indices increased only 200% by 1941 but rocketed to 1600 times by 1945. We develop a dynamic Fiscal Theory of Price Level (FTPL) to capture the relationship between fiscal shocks and price level. Our DSGE model shows that seigniorage (fiscal demand) driven inflationary monetary policy can lead to some hyperinflation that can be predicted and quantified. We then empirically examine the relationship between fiscal expenditures and inflation levels using provincial panel data 1937–1945. The estimation results show that local price levels increased 1.6% to 3.7% for every 10% increases of China's advance payment to US troops.