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Where is the beef? The costs of American aid and wartime China's hyperinflation

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  • Guo, Yibei
  • Dong, Baomin

Abstract

Upon the outbreak of the Pacific War (December 1941), the United States expanded its military assistance to allied nations including China under the “Lend-Lease Act”. However, the US defaulted the payment for their staff dispatched to and stationed in China which forced China to make huge sums of advance payment. The total costs of American military presence in China, including China's Reverse Lend-Lease contribution as a return to US military aid, amounted 15% to 22% of China's total fiscal expenditures. Since the beginning of 1937, the price indices increased only 200% by 1941 but rocketed to 1600 times by 1945. We develop a dynamic Fiscal Theory of Price Level (FTPL) to capture the relationship between fiscal shocks and price level. Our DSGE model shows that seigniorage (fiscal demand) driven inflationary monetary policy can lead to some hyperinflation that can be predicted and quantified. We then empirically examine the relationship between fiscal expenditures and inflation levels using provincial panel data 1937–1945. The estimation results show that local price levels increased 1.6% to 3.7% for every 10% increases of China's advance payment to US troops.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Yibei & Dong, Baomin, 2020. "Where is the beef? The costs of American aid and wartime China's hyperinflation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:61:y:2020:i:c:s1043951x1830172x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2018.12.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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