IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trump’s Effect on the Chinese Stock Market


  • Guo, Shijun
  • Jiao, Yang
  • Xu, Zhiwei


U.S. President Donald J. Trump tweets frequently to communicate his thoughts to the public. We quantitatively evaluate the impact of Trump's China-related tweets on the Chinese stock market. We find that following Trump’s inauguration, his tweets with a positive sentiment significantly increase abnormal returns for the manufacturing industry in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, an increase in the absolute value of his positive sentiment increases both the trading volume and volatility of the market. The positive effect is more pronounced for those subindustries with high exposure to international trade and stronger business relations with the United States than for other subindustries. The results are robust for various sensitivity tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Shijun & Jiao, Yang & Xu, Zhiwei, 2021. "Trump’s Effect on the Chinese Stock Market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:72:y:2021:i:c:s1049007820301470
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2020.101267

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL:
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    3. Liu, Baixiao & McConnell, John J., 2013. "The role of the media in corporate governance: Do the media influence managers' capital allocation decisions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 1-17.
    4. Boisot, Max & Meyer, Marshall W., 2008. "Which Way through the Open Door? Reflections on the Internationalization of Chinese Firms," Management and Organization Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 349-365, November.
    5. Camelia M. Kuhnen & Alexandra Niessen, 2012. "Public Opinion and Executive Compensation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1249-1272, July.
    6. Constantin Colonescu, 2018. "The Effects of Donald Trump's Tweets on US Financial and Foreign Exchange Markets," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 4(4), pages 375-388, October.
    7. Yan-Leung Cheung & P. Raghavendra Rau & Aris Stouraitis, 2010. "Helping Hand or Grabbing Hand? Central vs. Local Government Shareholders in Chinese Listed Firms," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(4), pages 669-694.
    8. Joseph, Kissan & Babajide Wintoki, M. & Zhang, Zelin, 2011. "Forecasting abnormal stock returns and trading volume using investor sentiment: Evidence from online search," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1116-1127, October.
    9. Marcelo Bianconi & Federico Esposito & Marco Sammon, 2019. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0830, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    10. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Xiaojin Liu & Chenqi Zhu, 2017. "What Explains Herd Behavior in the Chinese Stock Market?," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 448-456, October.
    11. Jiaxing You & Bohui Zhang & Le Zhang, 2018. "Who Captures the Power of the Pen?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 43-96.
    12. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    13. Max Boisot & Marshall W. Meyer, 2008. "Which Way through the Open Door? Reflections on the Internationalization of Chinese Firms," Management and Organization Review, The International Association for Chinese Management Research, vol. 4(3), pages 349-365, November.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    15. Bradshaw, Mark & Liao, Guanmin & Ma, Mark (Shuai), 2019. "Agency costs and tax planning when the government is a major Shareholder," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 255-277.
    16. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    17. Lian Fen Lee & Amy P. Hutton & Susan Shu, 2015. "The Role of Social Media in the Capital Market: Evidence from Consumer Product Recalls," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 367-404, May.
    18. Qi Ge & Alexander Kurov & Marketa Halova Wolfe, 2019. "Do Investors Care About Presidential Company‐Specific Tweets?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 213-242, July.
    19. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    20. He, Lerong & Wan, Hong & Zhou, Xin, 2014. "How are political connections valued in China? Evidence from market reaction to CEO succession," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 141-152.
    21. Hailiang Chen & Prabuddha De & Yu (Jeffrey) Hu & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2014. "Wisdom of Crowds: The Value of Stock Opinions Transmitted Through Social Media," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1367-1403.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Yanling & Tian, Gary Gang, 2021. "Public relations expenditure, media tone, and regulatory decisions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Wu, Chunying & Xiong, Xiong & Gao, Ya & Zhang, Jin, 2022. "Does social media distort price discovery? Evidence from rumor clarifications," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Buehlmaier, Matthias M. M. & Zechner, Josef, 2016. "Financial media, price discovery, and merger arbitrage," CFS Working Paper Series 551, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Daniele Ballinari & Simon Behrendt, 2021. "How to gauge investor behavior? A comparison of online investor sentiment measures," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 169-204, June.
    5. Femg, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C., 2019. "News or Noise? The Information Content of Social Media in China," Stockholm School of Economics Asia Working Paper Series 2019-52, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm China Economic Research Institute.
    6. Bang Dang Nguyen, 2015. "Is More News Good News? Media Coverage of CEOs, Firm Value, and Rent Extraction," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(04), pages 1-38, December.
    7. Ahmad, Khurshid & Han, JingGuang & Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2016. "Media-expressed negative tone and firm-level stock returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-172.
    8. Wu, Chunying & Xiong, Xiong & Gao, Ya, 2022. "The role of different information sources in information spread: Evidence from three media channels in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 327-341.
    9. Nishimura, Yusaku & Sun, Bianxia, 2021. "President’s Tweets, US-China economic conflict and stock market Volatility: Evidence from China and G5 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. David Kreitmeir & Nathan Lane & Paul A. Raschky, 2020. "The Value of Names - Civil Society, Information, and Governing Multinationals on the Global Periphery," SoDa Laboratories Working Paper Series 2020-10, Monash University, SoDa Laboratories.
    11. Roland Füss & Massimo Guidolin & Christian Koeppel, 2019. "Sentiment Risk Premia In The Cross-Section of Global Equity," Working Papers on Finance 1913, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised May 2020.
    12. Carlini, Federico & Cucinelli, Doriana & Previtali, Daniele & Soana, Maria Gaia, 2020. "Don't talk too bad! stock market reactions to bank corporate governance news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    13. Benjamin Clapham & Michael Siering & Peter Gomber, 2021. "Popular News Are Relevant News! How Investor Attention Affects Algorithmic Decision-Making and Decision Support in Financial Markets," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 477-494, April.
    14. Dang, Tung Lam & Dang, Man & Hoang, Luong & Nguyen, Lily & Phan, Hoang Long, 2020. "Media coverage and stock price synchronicity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Sun, Fangcheng & Dutta, Shantanu & Huang, Hui & Zhu, Pengcheng, 2021. "News media and insider trading profitability: An emerging country perspective," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    16. Roland Fuess & Massimo Guidolin & Christian Koeppel, 2019. "Sentiment Risk Premia in the Cross-Section of Global Equity and Currency Returns," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19116, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    17. Rui Fan & Oleksandr Talavera & Vu Tran, 2020. "Social media bots and stock markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 753-777, June.
    18. Liu, Sha & Han, Jingguang, 2020. "Media tone and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2020. "Share price reactions to tariff imposition announcements in the Trump era - An event study of the trade conflict," Working Papers Dissertations 59, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    20. Lili Dai & Rui Shen & Bohui Zhang, 2021. "Does the media spotlight burn or spur innovation?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 343-390, March.

    More about this item


    Social media; Trump’s effect; Stock market; Asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:72:y:2021:i:c:s1049007820301470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.