India's residential space cooling transition: Decarbonization ambitions since the turn of millennium

As an emerging emitter poised for significant growth in space cooling demand, India requires comprehensive insights into historical emission trends and decarbonization performance to shape future low-carbon cooling strategies. By integrating a bottom-up demand resource energy analysis model and a top-down decomposition method, this study is the first to conduct a state-level analysis of carbon emission trends and the corresponding decarbonization efforts for residential space cooling in urban and rural India from 2000 to 2022. The results indicate that (1) the carbon intensity of residential space cooling in India increased by 292.4 % from 2000 to 2022, reaching 513.8 kg of carbon dioxide per household. The net state domestic product per capita, representing income, emerged as the primary positive contributor. (2) The increase in carbon emissions from space cooling can be primarily attributed to the use of fans. While fan-based space cooling has nearly saturated Indian urban households, it is anticipated to persist as the primary cooling method in rural households for decades. (3) States with higher decarbonization potential are concentrated in two categories: those with high household income and substantial cooling appliance ownership and those with pronounced unmet cooling demand but low household income and hot climates. Furthermore, it is believed that promoting energy-efficient building designs can be prioritized to achieve affordable space cooling. Overall, this study serves as an effective foundation for formulating and promoting India's future cooling action plan, addressing the country's rising residential cooling demands and striving toward its net-zero goal by 2070.