IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v277y2020ics030626192031076x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How to model European electricity load profiles using artificial neural networks

Author

Listed:
  • Behm, Christian
  • Nolting, Lars
  • Praktiknjo, Aaron

Abstract

We present a method to create synthetic, weather-dependent, annual electricity load profiles for European countries in hourly resolution using artificial neural networks as a necessary basis for long-term forecasts. To this end, we train fully connected dense artificial neural networks with 5 hidden layers and 1,024 hidden nodes per layer using historic data for Germany from 2006 to 2015. Input parameters used in the model comprise calendrical information, annual peak loads and weather data. We benchmark our results against the current state-of-the-art method to generate synthetic load profiles used in mid-term adequacy forecasts published by the European Network of Transmission System Operators (entso-e). For validation year 2016, our approach shows a mean absolute percentage error of 2.8%, whereas the method as used by entso-e shows an average error of 4.8%. We then conduct forecasts for Germany, Sweden, Spain, and France using our synthetic load profiles for scenario year 2025 to demonstrate their pan-European applicability. Finally, we assess parameter variations that demonstrate high influences of outdoor temperatures and wind speed on the electricity load. Our approach can help to increase prediction accuracy of future electricity loads as electricity load profiles are a necessary input for these forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Behm, Christian & Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "How to model European electricity load profiles using artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:277:y:2020:i:c:s030626192031076x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192031076X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115564?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zheng, Zhuang & Chen, Hainan & Luo, Xiaowei, 2019. "A Kalman filter-based bottom-up approach for household short-term load forecast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 882-894.
    2. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    3. Lindberg, K.B. & Seljom, P. & Madsen, H. & Fischer, D. & Korpås, M., 2019. "Long-term electricity load forecasting: Current and future trends," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 102-119.
    4. Somu, Nivethitha & M R, Gauthama Raman & Ramamritham, Krithi, 2020. "A hybrid model for building energy consumption forecasting using long short term memory networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    5. Cai, Mengmeng & Pipattanasomporn, Manisa & Rahman, Saifur, 2019. "Day-ahead building-level load forecasts using deep learning vs. traditional time-series techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1078-1088.
    6. Xu, Lei & Wang, Shengwei & Tang, Rui, 2019. "Probabilistic load forecasting for buildings considering weather forecasting uncertainty and uncertain peak load," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 180-195.
    7. Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "Can we phase-out all of them? Probabilistic assessments of security of electricity supply for the German case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    8. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Troccoli, Alberto & Hyndman, Rob J., 2016. "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 896-913.
    9. AlRashidi, M.R. & EL-Naggar, K.M., 2010. "Long term electric load forecasting based on particle swarm optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 320-326, January.
    10. Huber, Julian & Dann, David & Weinhardt, Christof, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasts of time and energy flexibility in battery electric vehicle charging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    11. Bianco, Vincenzo & Manca, Oronzio & Nardini, Sergio, 2009. "Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1413-1421.
    12. Li, Chen, 2020. "Designing a short-term load forecasting model in the urban smart grid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    13. Rahman, Aowabin & Srikumar, Vivek & Smith, Amanda D., 2018. "Predicting electricity consumption for commercial and residential buildings using deep recurrent neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 372-385.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mayer, Martin János & Biró, Bence & Szücs, Botond & Aszódi, Attila, 2023. "Probabilistic modeling of future electricity systems with high renewable energy penetration using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    2. Leonard Burg & Gonca Gürses-Tran & Reinhard Madlener & Antonello Monti, 2021. "Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Thangjam, Aditya & Jaipuria, Sanjita & Dadabada, Pradeep Kumar, 2023. "Time-Varying approaches for Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting under economic shocks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    4. Hasith Jayasinghe & Kosala Gunawardane & Robert Nicholson, 2025. "Applications of Electrical Load Modelling in Digital Twins of Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Zimmermann, Monika & Ziel, Florian, 2025. "Efficient mid-term forecasting of hourly electricity load using generalized additive models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
    6. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Fezzi, Carlo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Incorporating air temperature into mid-term electricity load forecasting models using time-series regressions and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    7. Dariusz Kurz & Agata Nowak, 2023. "Analysis of the Impact of the Level of Self-Consumption of Electricity from a Prosumer Photovoltaic Installation on Its Profitability under Different Energy Billing Scenarios in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-40, January.
    8. Shafie Bahman & Hamidreza Zareipour, 2025. "Long-Term Multi-Resolution Probabilistic Load Forecasting Using Temporal Hierarchies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-30, June.
    9. Dampeyrou, Charles & Goichon, Antoine & Ghienne, Martin & Tschannen, Valentin & Schaack, Sofiane, 2024. "Unsupervised separation of the thermosensitive contribution in the power consumption at a country scale," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    10. Monika Zimmermann & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Efficient mid-term forecasting of hourly electricity load using generalized additive models," Papers 2405.17070, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    11. Elahi, Ehsan & Zhang, Zhixin & Khalid, Zainab & Xu, Haiyun, 2022. "Application of an artificial neural network to optimise energy inputs: An energy- and cost-saving strategy for commercial poultry farms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    12. Thangjam Aditya & Sanjita Jaipuria & Pradeep Kumar Dadabada, 2025. "A Review of Methods for Long‐Term Electric Load Forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 1403-1423, July.
    13. Monika Zimmermann & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Spatial Weather, Socio-Economic and Political Risks in Probabilistic Load Forecasting," Papers 2408.00507, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    14. Ferdaus, Md Meftahul & Dam, Tanmoy & Anavatti, Sreenatha & Das, Sarobi, 2024. "Digital technologies for a net-zero energy future: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    15. Paweł Piotrowski & Dariusz Baczyński & Marcin Kopyt, 2022. "Medium-Term Forecasts of Load Profiles in Polish Power System including E-Mobility Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-27, August.
    16. Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2022. "The complexity dilemma – Insights from security of electricity supply assessments," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    17. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Linyue & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "Interval forecasting system for electricity load based on data pre-processing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    18. Lyu, Wenjing & Liu, Jin, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence and emerging digital technologies in the energy sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    19. Gülay Yıldız Doğan & Aslı Aksoy & Nursel Öztürk, 2024. "A Hybrid Deep Learning Model to Estimate the Future Electricity Demand of Sustainable Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-16, July.
    20. Ergun Yukseltan & Esra Agca Aktunc & Ayse H. Bilge & Ahmet Yucekaya, 2024. "An Overview of Electricity Consumption in Europe: Models for Prediction of the Electricity Usage for Heating and Cooling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 96-111, March.
    21. Michael Meiser & Ingo Zinnikus, 2024. "A Survey on the Use of Synthetic Data for Enhancing Key Aspects of Trustworthy AI in the Energy Domain: Challenges and Opportunities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-29, April.
    22. Marlon Schlemminger & Raphael Niepelt & Rolf Brendel, 2021. "A Cross-Country Model for End-Use Specific Aggregated Household Load Profiles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.
    23. Prajowal Manandhar & Hasan Rafiq & Edwin Rodriguez-Ubinas & Themis Palpanas, 2024. "New Forecasting Metrics Evaluated in Prophet, Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory Models for Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-30, December.
    24. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    25. Dengyong Zhang & Haixin Tong & Feng Li & Lingyun Xiang & Xiangling Ding, 2020. "An Ultra-Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting Method Based on Temperature-Factor-Weight and LSTM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-14, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Buzna, Luboš & De Falco, Pasquale & Ferruzzi, Gabriella & Khormali, Shahab & Proto, Daniela & Refa, Nazir & Straka, Milan & van der Poel, Gijs, 2021. "An ensemble methodology for hierarchical probabilistic electric vehicle load forecasting at regular charging stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Chabouni, Naima & Belarbi, Yacine & Benhassine, Wassim, 2020. "Electricity load dynamics, temperature and seasonality Nexus in Algeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Lee, Juyong & Cho, Youngsang, 2022. "National-scale electricity peak load forecasting: Traditional, machine learning, or hybrid model?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    5. Mobarak Abumohsen & Amani Yousef Owda & Majdi Owda, 2023. "Electrical Load Forecasting Using LSTM, GRU, and RNN Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-31, February.
    6. Zheng, Zhuang & Sun, Zhankun & Pan, Jia & Luo, Xiaowei, 2021. "An integrated smart home energy management model based on a pyramid taxonomy for residential houses with photovoltaic-battery systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    7. Liu, Che & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Chenghui & Li, Fan, 2020. "A hybrid prediction model for residential electricity consumption using holt-winters and extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    8. Wenting Zhao & Haoran Xu & Peng Chen & Juan Zhang & Jing Li & Tingting Cai, 2025. "Elastic Momentum-Enhanced Adaptive Hybrid Method for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-25, June.
    9. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    10. Ibrahim, Muhammad Sohail & Dong, Wei & Yang, Qiang, 2020. "Machine learning driven smart electric power systems: Current trends and new perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    11. Luo, Jian & Hong, Tao & Gao, Zheming & Fang, Shu-Cherng, 2023. "A robust support vector regression model for electric load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1005-1020.
    12. Hyunsoo Kim & Jiseok Jeong & Changwan Kim, 2022. "Daily Peak-Electricity-Demand Forecasting Based on Residual Long Short-Term Network," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Qing Yin & Chunmiao Han & Ailin Li & Xiao Liu & Ying Liu, 2024. "A Review of Research on Building Energy Consumption Prediction Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-30, September.
    15. de Hoog, Julian & Abdulla, Khalid, 2019. "Data visualization and forecast combination for probabilistic load forecasting in GEFCom2017 final match," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1451-1459.
    16. Jiang, Ben & Li, Yu & Rezgui, Yacine & Zhang, Chengyu & Wang, Peng & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Multi-source domain generalization deep neural network model for predicting energy consumption in multiple office buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    17. Huber, Julian & Dann, David & Weinhardt, Christof, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasts of time and energy flexibility in battery electric vehicle charging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    18. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
    19. Hu, Yusha & Man, Yi, 2023. "Energy consumption and carbon emissions forecasting for industrial processes: Status, challenges and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    20. Tadeusz A. Grzeszczyk & Michal K. Grzeszczyk, 2022. "Justifying Short-Term Load Forecasts Obtained with the Use of Neural Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:277:y:2020:i:c:s030626192031076x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.