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How to model European electricity load profiles using artificial neural networks

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  • Behm, Christian
  • Nolting, Lars
  • Praktiknjo, Aaron

Abstract

We present a method to create synthetic, weather-dependent, annual electricity load profiles for European countries in hourly resolution using artificial neural networks as a necessary basis for long-term forecasts. To this end, we train fully connected dense artificial neural networks with 5 hidden layers and 1,024 hidden nodes per layer using historic data for Germany from 2006 to 2015. Input parameters used in the model comprise calendrical information, annual peak loads and weather data. We benchmark our results against the current state-of-the-art method to generate synthetic load profiles used in mid-term adequacy forecasts published by the European Network of Transmission System Operators (entso-e). For validation year 2016, our approach shows a mean absolute percentage error of 2.8%, whereas the method as used by entso-e shows an average error of 4.8%. We then conduct forecasts for Germany, Sweden, Spain, and France using our synthetic load profiles for scenario year 2025 to demonstrate their pan-European applicability. Finally, we assess parameter variations that demonstrate high influences of outdoor temperatures and wind speed on the electricity load. Our approach can help to increase prediction accuracy of future electricity loads as electricity load profiles are a necessary input for these forecasts.

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  • Behm, Christian & Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "How to model European electricity load profiles using artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:277:y:2020:i:c:s030626192031076x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115564
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dariusz Kurz & Agata Nowak, 2023. "Analysis of the Impact of the Level of Self-Consumption of Electricity from a Prosumer Photovoltaic Installation on Its Profitability under Different Energy Billing Scenarios in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-40, January.
    3. Lyu, Wenjing & Liu, Jin, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence and emerging digital technologies in the energy sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    4. Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2022. "The complexity dilemma – Insights from security of electricity supply assessments," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    5. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Linyue & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "Interval forecasting system for electricity load based on data pre-processing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    6. Marlon Schlemminger & Raphael Niepelt & Rolf Brendel, 2021. "A Cross-Country Model for End-Use Specific Aggregated Household Load Profiles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.
    7. Mayer, Martin János & Biró, Bence & Szücs, Botond & Aszódi, Attila, 2023. "Probabilistic modeling of future electricity systems with high renewable energy penetration using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    8. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Fezzi, Carlo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Incorporating air temperature into mid-term electricity load forecasting models using time-series regressions and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    9. Elahi, Ehsan & Zhang, Zhixin & Khalid, Zainab & Xu, Haiyun, 2022. "Application of an artificial neural network to optimise energy inputs: An energy- and cost-saving strategy for commercial poultry farms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    10. Leonard Burg & Gonca Gürses-Tran & Reinhard Madlener & Antonello Monti, 2021. "Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, November.
    11. Thangjam, Aditya & Jaipuria, Sanjita & Dadabada, Pradeep Kumar, 2023. "Time-Varying approaches for Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting under economic shocks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    12. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    13. Dengyong Zhang & Haixin Tong & Feng Li & Lingyun Xiang & Xiangling Ding, 2020. "An Ultra-Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting Method Based on Temperature-Factor-Weight and LSTM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-14, September.

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