IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i18p4875-d415087.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Ultra-Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting Method Based on Temperature-Factor-Weight and LSTM Model

Author

Listed:
  • Dengyong Zhang

    (Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Processing of Big Data on Transportation, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China
    School of Computer and Communication Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

  • Haixin Tong

    (Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Processing of Big Data on Transportation, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China
    School of Computer and Communication Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

  • Feng Li

    (Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Processing of Big Data on Transportation, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China
    School of Computer and Communication Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

  • Lingyun Xiang

    (Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Processing of Big Data on Transportation, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China
    School of Computer and Communication Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China
    Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Smart Roadway and Cooperative Vehicle-Infrastructure Systems, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

  • Xiangling Ding

    (The School of Computer Science and Engineering, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411004, China)

Abstract

Ultra-short-term electrical load forecasting is an important guarantee for the safety and efficiency of energy system operation. Temperature is also an important factor affecting the changes in electric load. However, in different cases, the impact of temperature on load forecasting will vary greatly, and sometimes even lead to the decrease of forecasting accuracy. This often brings great difficulties to researchers’ work. In order to make more scientific use of temperature factor for ultra-short-term electrical load forecasting, especially to avoid the negative influence of temperature on load forecasting, in this paper we propose an ultra-short-term electrical load forecasting method based on temperature factor weight and long short-term memory model. The proposed method evaluates the importance of the current prediction task’s temperature based on the change magnitude of the recent load and the correlation between temperature and load, and therefore the negative impacts of the temperature model can be avoided. The mean absolute percentage error of proposed method is decreased by 1.24%, 1.86%, and 6.21% compared with traditional long short-term memory model, back-propagation neural network, and gray model on average, respectively. The experimental results demonstrate that this method has obvious advantages in prediction accuracy and generalization ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Dengyong Zhang & Haixin Tong & Feng Li & Lingyun Xiang & Xiangling Ding, 2020. "An Ultra-Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting Method Based on Temperature-Factor-Weight and LSTM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:18:p:4875-:d:415087
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/18/4875/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/18/4875/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Huaizhi & Xue, Wenli & Liu, Yitao & Peng, Jianchun & Jiang, Hui, 2020. "Probabilistic wind power forecasting based on spiking neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Wang, Qi & Zhang, Chunyu & Ding, Yi & Xydis, George & Wang, Jianhui & Østergaard, Jacob, 2015. "Review of real-time electricity markets for integrating Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 695-706.
    3. Arpita Samanta Santra & Jun-Lin Lin, 2019. "Integrating Long Short-Term Memory and Genetic Algorithm for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-11, May.
    4. Zhang, Ning & Li, Zhiying & Zou, Xun & Quiring, Steven M., 2019. "Comparison of three short-term load forecast models in Southern California," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    5. Yi-Chung Hu, 2017. "Electricity consumption prediction using a neural-network-based grey forecasting approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(10), pages 1259-1264, October.
    6. Fei Yu & Li Liu & Binyong He & Yuanyuan Huang & Changqiong Shi & Shuo Cai & Yun Song & Sichun Du & Qiuzhen Wan, 2019. "Analysis and FPGA Realization of a Novel 5D Hyperchaotic Four-Wing Memristive System, Active Control Synchronization, and Secure Communication Application," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-18, November.
    7. Qing, Xiangyun & Niu, Yugang, 2018. "Hourly day-ahead solar irradiance prediction using weather forecasts by LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 461-468.
    8. Peng Liu & Peijun Zheng & Ziyu Chen, 2019. "Deep Learning with Stacked Denoising Auto-Encoder for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-15, June.
    9. Bin Li & Mingzhen Lu & Yiyi Zhang & Jia Huang, 2019. "A Weekend Load Forecasting Model Based on Semi-Parametric Regression Analysis Considering Weather and Load Interaction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-19, October.
    10. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    11. Behm, Christian & Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "How to model European electricity load profiles using artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hao Ma & Peng Yang & Fei Wang & Xiaotian Wang & Di Yang & Bo Feng, 2023. "Short-Term Heavy Overload Forecasting of Public Transformers Based on Combined LSTM-XGBoost Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Robert Basmadjian & Amirhossein Shaafieyoun & Sahib Julka, 2021. "Day-Ahead Forecasting of the Percentage of Renewables Based on Time-Series Statistical Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, November.
    3. Md Jamal Ahmed Shohan & Md Omar Faruque & Simon Y. Foo, 2022. "Forecasting of Electric Load Using a Hybrid LSTM-Neural Prophet Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    2. Leonard Burg & Gonca Gürses-Tran & Reinhard Madlener & Antonello Monti, 2021. "Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Janusz Sowinski, 2021. "The Impact of the Selection of Exogenous Variables in the ANFIS Model on the Results of the Daily Load Forecast in the Power Company," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Wang, Lining & Mao, Mingxuan & Xie, Jili & Liao, Zheng & Zhang, Hao & Li, Huanxin, 2023. "Accurate solar PV power prediction interval method based on frequency-domain decomposition and LSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    5. Sungwoo Park & Jihoon Moon & Seungwon Jung & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik & Eenjun Hwang, 2020. "A Two-Stage Industrial Load Forecasting Scheme for Day-Ahead Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Marlon Schlemminger & Raphael Niepelt & Rolf Brendel, 2021. "A Cross-Country Model for End-Use Specific Aggregated Household Load Profiles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.
    7. Chatum Sankalpa & Somsak Kittipiyakul & Seksan Laitrakun, 2022. "Forecasting Short-Term Electricity Load Using Validated Ensemble Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-30, November.
    8. Huber, Jakob & Stuckenschmidt, Heiner, 2021. "Intraday shelf replenishment decision support for perishable goods," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    9. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    10. Massaoudi, Mohamed & Refaat, Shady S. & Chihi, Ines & Trabelsi, Mohamed & Oueslati, Fakhreddine S. & Abu-Rub, Haitham, 2021. "A novel stacked generalization ensemble-based hybrid LGBM-XGB-MLP model for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    11. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
    12. Eugenio Borghini & Cinzia Giannetti & James Flynn & Grazia Todeschini, 2021. "Data-Driven Energy Storage Scheduling to Minimise Peak Demand on Distribution Systems with PV Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-22, June.
    13. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2016. "A Quantile Regression Model for Electricity Peak Demand Forecasting: An Approach to Avoiding Power Blackouts," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 16-22, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    14. Małgorzata Sztorc, 2022. "The Implementation of the European Green Deal Strategy as a Challenge for Energy Management in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Ali, Mohammad M. & Hong, Tao & Hyndman, Rob J. & Porter, Michael D. & Syntetos, Aris, 2022. "Forecasting for social good," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1245-1257.
    16. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. Ozdemir, Ali Can & Buluş, Kurtuluş & Zor, Kasım, 2022. "Medium- to long-term nickel price forecasting using LSTM and GRU networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Eissa, M.M., 2018. "First time real time incentive demand response program in smart grid with “i-Energy” management system with different resources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 607-621.
    19. Fu, Chun & Miller, Clayton, 2022. "Using Google Trends as a proxy for occupant behavior to predict building energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    20. Lork, Clement & Li, Wen-Tai & Qin, Yan & Zhou, Yuren & Yuen, Chau & Tushar, Wayes & Saha, Tapan K., 2020. "An uncertainty-aware deep reinforcement learning framework for residential air conditioning energy management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:18:p:4875-:d:415087. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.