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Interval forecasting system for electricity load based on data pre-processing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm

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  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Zhang, Linyue
  • Li, Zhiwu

Abstract

Electricity load prediction is of great significance to the development of the power market and stable operation of power systems. In recent years, scholars in this field have only considered point forecasting, which ignores the inevitable prediction bias and uncertain information. To fill this gap, this study proposes an interval prediction system consisting of an advanced data reconstruction strategy, a multi-objective optimization algorithm based on the theory of non-negative constraints, and an outstanding interval forecasting model fitted by the predicted fluctuation characteristics. Moreover, this study theoretically proves that the weight assigned by the optimization algorithm is the Pareto optimal solution. Empirical data with 30 min intervals from Queensland, Australia are selected as samples for research. The results not only demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model but also provide effective technical support for power grid operation and dispatch by quantifying changes in the prediction results caused by uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Linyue & Li, Zhiwu, 2022. "Interval forecasting system for electricity load based on data pre-processing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:305:y:2022:i:c:s030626192101223x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117911
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Piao Wang & Shahid Hussain Gurmani & Zhifu Tao & Jinpei Liu & Huayou Chen, 2024. "Interval time series forecasting: A systematic literature review," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 249-285, March.
    5. Laouafi, Abderrezak & Laouafi, Farida & Boukelia, Taqiy Eddine, 2022. "An adaptive hybrid ensemble with pattern similarity analysis and error correction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    6. Li, Jingrui & Wang, Jiyang & Li, Zhiwu, 2023. "A novel combined forecasting system based on advanced optimization algorithm - A study on optimal interval prediction of wind speed," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    7. Wang, Jianzhou & Wang, Shuai & Zeng, Bo & Lu, Haiyan, 2022. "A novel ensemble probabilistic forecasting system for uncertainty in wind speed," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    8. Ai, Chunyu & He, Shan & Fan, Xiaochao & Wang, Weiqing, 2023. "Chaotic time series wind power prediction method based on OVMD-PE and improved multi-objective state transition algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    9. Wang, Kang & Wang, Jianzhou & Zeng, Bo & Lu, Haiyan, 2022. "An integrated power load point-interval forecasting system based on information entropy and multi-objective optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    10. Wang, Jianzhou & Xing, Qianyi & Zeng, Bo & Zhao, Weigang, 2022. "An ensemble forecasting system for short-term power load based on multi-objective optimizer and fuzzy granulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    11. Zhu, Qiannan & Jiang, Feng & Li, Chaoshun, 2023. "Time-varying interval prediction and decision-making for short-term wind power using convolutional gated recurrent unit and multi-objective elephant clan optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
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