IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v262y2023ipbs036054422202179x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Artificial intelligence for load forecasting: A stacking learning approach based on ensemble diversity regularization

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Jiaqi
  • Li, Chenxi
  • Yan, Xiaohe

Abstract

State-of-art artificial intelligence (AI) has made great breakthroughs in various industries. Ensemble learning mixed with various predictors provides a considerable solution for electric load forecasting in power system. In our paper, the generalization error of ensemble learning is statistically decomposed to exhibit the significance of base-learner diversity. A diversity regularized Stacking learning approach is proposed to solve the electric load forecasting issue. In our model, the input features are comprehensively selected by various tree-based embedded methods to understand the feature contribution. The robust candidate base-learners are extracted from sub-model pool depending on diversity regularization besides the individual learning capability. Mutual information theory and hierarchical clustering quantitatively assess the dissimilarity degree among base-leaners by exploiting error distribution. The Stacking ensemble framework is utilized to avoid the over-fitting occurrence by employing leave-one-out data splitting procedure for raw dataset block. At last, various cases from different time horizons or geographical scopes are deployed to verify the validity of the model. The case shows that the diversity regularized Stacking learning has better prediction performance compared with the traditional ensemble model or single model. Load forecasting results become more accurate and stable when elaborately selecting base-learners portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Jiaqi & Li, Chenxi & Yan, Xiaohe, 2023. "Artificial intelligence for load forecasting: A stacking learning approach based on ensemble diversity regularization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:262:y:2023:i:pb:s036054422202179x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.125295
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422202179X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125295?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhao, Xueyuan & Gao, Weijun & Qian, Fanyue & Ge, Jian, 2021. "Electricity cost comparison of dynamic pricing model based on load forecasting in home energy management system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    2. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    3. Dong, Ming & Shi, Jian & Shi, Qingxin, 2020. "Multi-year long-term load forecast for area distribution feeders based on selective sequence learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    4. Khan, Waqas & Walker, Shalika & Zeiler, Wim, 2022. "Improved solar photovoltaic energy generation forecast using deep learning-based ensemble stacking approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    5. Alobaidi, Mohammad H. & Chebana, Fateh & Meguid, Mohamed A., 2018. "Robust ensemble learning framework for day-ahead forecasting of household based energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 997-1012.
    6. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, Nalin Behari, 2019. "Season specific approach for short-term load forecasting based on hybrid FA-SVM and similarity concept," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 886-896.
    7. Li, Song & Goel, Lalit & Wang, Peng, 2016. "An ensemble approach for short-term load forecasting by extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 22-29.
    8. Massaoudi, Mohamed & Refaat, Shady S. & Chihi, Ines & Trabelsi, Mohamed & Oueslati, Fakhreddine S. & Abu-Rub, Haitham, 2021. "A novel stacked generalization ensemble-based hybrid LGBM-XGB-MLP model for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    9. Lee, Juyong & Cho, Youngsang, 2022. "National-scale electricity peak load forecasting: Traditional, machine learning, or hybrid model?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    10. Zhang, Wenyu & Chen, Qian & Yan, Jianyong & Zhang, Shuai & Xu, Jiyuan, 2021. "A novel asynchronous deep reinforcement learning model with adaptive early forecasting method and reward incentive mechanism for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    11. Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Hongcai, 2020. "Novel deep supervised ML models with feature selection approach for large-scale utilities and buildings short and medium-term load requirement forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    12. Yoshua Bengio & Claude Nadeau, 1999. "Inference for the Generalization Error," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-25, CIRANO.
    13. Imani, Maryam, 2021. "Electrical load-temperature CNN for residential load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    14. Li, Chuan & Tao, Ying & Ao, Wengang & Yang, Shuai & Bai, Yun, 2018. "Improving forecasting accuracy of daily enterprise electricity consumption using a random forest based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1220-1227.
    15. Sulandari, Winita & Subanar, & Lee, Muhammad Hisyam & Rodrigues, Paulo Canas, 2020. "Indonesian electricity load forecasting using singular spectrum analysis, fuzzy systems and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    16. Li, Yanying & Che, Jinxing & Yang, Youlong, 2018. "Subsampled support vector regression ensemble for short term electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 160-170.
    17. Zhang, Ning & Li, Zhiying & Zou, Xun & Quiring, Steven M., 2019. "Comparison of three short-term load forecast models in Southern California," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    18. Ghadimi, Noradin & Akbarimajd, Adel & Shayeghi, Hossein & Abedinia, Oveis, 2018. "Two stage forecast engine with feature selection technique and improved meta-heuristic algorithm for electricity load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 130-142.
    19. Talaat, M. & Farahat, M.A. & Mansour, Noura & Hatata, A.Y., 2020. "Load forecasting based on grasshopper optimization and a multilayer feed-forward neural network using regressive approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    20. Tayab, Usman Bashir & Zia, Ali & Yang, Fuwen & Lu, Junwei & Kashif, Muhammad, 2020. "Short-term load forecasting for microgrid energy management system using hybrid HHO-FNN model with best-basis stationary wavelet packet transform," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    21. Shi, Jiaqi & Liu, Nian & Huang, Yujing & Ma, Liya, 2022. "An Edge Computing-oriented Net Power Forecasting for PV-assisted Charging Station: Model Complexity and Forecasting Accuracy Trade-off," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    22. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    23. Samuel Atuahene & Yukun Bao & Patricia Semwaah Gyan & Yao Yevenyo Ziggah, 2019. "Accurate Forecast Improvement Approach for Short Term Load Forecasting Using Hybrid Filter-Wrap Feature Selection," International Journal of Management Science and Business Administration, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 37-49, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gang Chen & Qingchang Hu & Jin Wang & Xu Wang & Yuyu Zhu, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Electric Power Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Dorian Skrobek & Jaroslaw Krzywanski & Marcin Sosnowski & Ghulam Moeen Uddin & Waqar Muhammad Ashraf & Karolina Grabowska & Anna Zylka & Anna Kulakowska & Wojciech Nowak, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence for Energy Processes and Systems: Applications and Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-12, April.
    3. Kesriklioğlu, Esma & Oktay, Erkan & Karaaslan, Abdulkerim, 2023. "Predicting total household energy expenditures using ensemble learning methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huang, Yanmei & Hasan, Najmul & Deng, Changrui & Bao, Yukun, 2022. "Multivariate empirical mode decomposition based hybrid model for day-ahead peak load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    2. Lai, Changzhi & Wang, Yu & Fan, Kai & Cai, Qilin & Ye, Qing & Pang, Haoqiang & Wu, Xi, 2022. "An improved forecasting model of short-term electric load of papermaking enterprises for production line optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    3. Yundong Gu & Dongfen Ma & Jiawei Cui & Zhenhua Li & Yaqi Chen, 2022. "Variable-Weighted Ensemble Forecasting of Short-Term Power Load Based on Factor Space Theory," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 485-501, June.
    4. Zhang, Ning & Li, Zhiying & Zou, Xun & Quiring, Steven M., 2019. "Comparison of three short-term load forecast models in Southern California," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    5. Qu, Zhijian & Xu, Juan & Wang, Zixiao & Chi, Rui & Liu, Hanxin, 2021. "Prediction of electricity generation from a combined cycle power plant based on a stacking ensemble and its hyperparameter optimization with a grid-search method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    6. Trull, Oscar & García-Díaz, J. Carlos & Troncoso, Alicia, 2021. "One-day-ahead electricity demand forecasting in holidays using discrete-interval moving seasonalities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    7. Arash Moradzadeh & Sahar Zakeri & Maryam Shoaran & Behnam Mohammadi-Ivatloo & Fazel Mohammadi, 2020. "Short-Term Load Forecasting of Microgrid via Hybrid Support Vector Regression and Long Short-Term Memory Algorithms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-17, August.
    8. Fan, Guo-Feng & Yu, Meng & Dong, Song-Qiao & Yeh, Yi-Hsuan & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2021. "Forecasting short-term electricity load using hybrid support vector regression with grey catastrophe and random forest modeling," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Talaat, M. & Farahat, M.A. & Mansour, Noura & Hatata, A.Y., 2020. "Load forecasting based on grasshopper optimization and a multilayer feed-forward neural network using regressive approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    10. Zhang, Dongxue & Wang, Shuai & Liang, Yuqiu & Du, Zhiyuan, 2023. "A novel combined model for probabilistic load forecasting based on deep learning and improved optimizer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    11. Sharma, Abhishek & Jain, Sachin Kumar, 2022. "A novel seasonal segmentation approach for day-ahead load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    12. Zhang, Wenyu & Chen, Qian & Yan, Jianyong & Zhang, Shuai & Xu, Jiyuan, 2021. "A novel asynchronous deep reinforcement learning model with adaptive early forecasting method and reward incentive mechanism for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    13. Rafati, Amir & Joorabian, Mahmood & Mashhour, Elaheh, 2020. "An efficient hour-ahead electrical load forecasting method based on innovative features," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    14. Guo‐Feng Fan & Yan‐Hui Guo & Jia‐Mei Zheng & Wei‐Chiang Hong, 2020. "A generalized regression model based on hybrid empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression with back‐propagation neural network for mid‐short‐term load forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 737-756, August.
    15. Sekhar, Charan & Dahiya, Ratna, 2023. "Robust framework based on hybrid deep learning approach for short term load forecasting of building electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    16. Kazemzadeh, Mohammad-Rasool & Amjadian, Ali & Amraee, Turaj, 2020. "A hybrid data mining driven algorithm for long term electric peak load and energy demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    17. Li, Chen, 2020. "Designing a short-term load forecasting model in the urban smart grid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    18. Liu, Jiefeng & Zhang, Zhenhao & Fan, Xianhao & Zhang, Yiyi & Wang, Jiaqi & Zhou, Ke & Liang, Shuo & Yu, Xiaoyong & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Power system load forecasting using mobility optimization and multi-task learning in COVID-19," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    19. Xiao, Xun & Mo, Huadong & Zhang, Yinan & Shan, Guangcun, 2022. "Meta-ANN – A dynamic artificial neural network refined by meta-learning for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    20. Yang, Wendong & Sun, Shaolong & Hao, Yan & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "A novel machine learning-based electricity price forecasting model based on optimal model selection strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:262:y:2023:i:pb:s036054422202179x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.