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An Overview of Electricity Consumption in Europe: Models for Prediction of the Electricity Usage for Heating and Cooling

Author

Listed:
  • Ergun Yukseltan

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Esra Agca Aktunc

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Ayse H. Bilge

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Ahmet Yucekaya

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

Although aggregate electricity consumption provides valuable information for market analysis, demand composition, including industrial, residential, illumination, and other uses, and special days, such as national or religious holidays and annual industrial shutdowns, differ for each country. This paper analyzes the hourly electricity consumption of European countries in the European Transmission System Operation for Electricity (ENTSO-E) grid from 2006 to 2018. We propose an outlier detection method to identify special days and a modulated Fourier Series Expansion model to determine the breakdown of industrial versus household consumption and heating versus cooling consumption. The proposed outlier detection method uses the time series for each hour and checks whether a day has more than a threshold number of hours with exceptional electricity consumption levels. The proposed demand prediction model has a 3% average error when electricity usage for heating is not dominant. It also allows country classification based on consumption patterns to efficiently manage regional or country-based electricity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ergun Yukseltan & Esra Agca Aktunc & Ayse H. Bilge & Ahmet Yucekaya, 2024. "An Overview of Electricity Consumption in Europe: Models for Prediction of the Electricity Usage for Heating and Cooling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 96-111, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2024-02-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Thomas, Samuel & Rosenow, Jan, 2020. "Drivers of increasing energy consumption in Europe and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Yukseltan, Ergun & Yucekaya, Ahmet & Bilge, Ayse Humeyra, 2017. "Forecasting electricity demand for Turkey: Modeling periodic variations and demand segregation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 287-296.
    4. Perillo, Frederico & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia & Cerqueira, Pedro A., 2022. "Decoupling efficiency from electricity intensity: An empirical assessment in the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    5. Ergun Yukseltan & Esra Agca Aktunc & Ayse H. Bilge & Ahmet Yucekaya, 2024. "An Overview of Electricity Consumption in Europe: Models for Prediction of the Electricity Usage for Heating and Cooling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 96-111, March.
    6. Werner, Sven, 2017. "District heating and cooling in Sweden," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 419-429.
    7. Behm, Christian & Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "How to model European electricity load profiles using artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
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    1. Ergun Yukseltan & Esra Agca Aktunc & Ayse H. Bilge & Ahmet Yucekaya, 2024. "An Overview of Electricity Consumption in Europe: Models for Prediction of the Electricity Usage for Heating and Cooling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 96-111, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity Consumption Composition Analysis; Fourier Series Expansion; Special Days Detection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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