IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v208y2017icp511-521.html

Projecting state-level air pollutant emissions using an integrated assessment model: GCAM-USA

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Wenjing
  • Ou, Yang
  • Smith, Steven J.
  • Ledna, Catherine M.
  • Nolte, Christopher G.
  • Loughlin, Daniel H.

Abstract

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) characterize the interactions among human and earth systems. IAMs typically have been applied to investigate future energy, land use, and emission pathways at global to continental scales. Recent directions in IAM development include enhanced technological detail, greater spatial and temporal resolution, and the inclusion of air pollutant emissions. These developments expand the potential applications of IAMs to include support for air quality management and for coordinated environmental, climate, and energy planning. Furthermore, these IAMs could help decision makers more fully understand tradeoffs and synergies among policy goals, identify important cross-sector interactions, and, via scenarios, consider uncertainties in factors such as population and economic growth, technology development, human behavior, and climate change. A version of the Global Change Assessment Model with U.S. state-level resolution (GCAM-USA) is presented that incorporates U.S.-specific emission factors, pollutant controls, and air quality and energy regulations. Resulting air pollutant emission outputs are compared to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2011 and projected inventories. A Quality Metric is used to quantify GCAM-USA performance for several pollutants at the sectoral and state levels. This information provides insights into the types of applications for which GCAM-USA is currently well suited and highlights where additional refinement may be warranted. While this analysis is specific to the U.S., the results indicate more generally the importance of enhanced spatial resolution and of considering national and sub-national regulatory constraints within IAMs.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Wenjing & Ou, Yang & Smith, Steven J. & Ledna, Catherine M. & Nolte, Christopher G. & Loughlin, Daniel H., 2017. "Projecting state-level air pollutant emissions using an integrated assessment model: GCAM-USA," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 511-521.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:208:y:2017:i:c:p:511-521
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.09.122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261917314125
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.09.122?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rausch Sebastian & Metcalf Gilbert E. & Reilly John M & Paltsev Sergey, 2010. "Distributional Implications of Alternative U.S. Greenhouse Gas Control Measures," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-46, July.
    2. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    3. Barron, Robert & McJeon, Haewon, 2015. "The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 264-274.
    4. Son H. Kim & Mohamad Hejazi & Lu Liu & Katherine Calvin & Leon Clarke & Jae Edmonds & Page Kyle & Pralit Patel & Marshall Wise & Evan Davies, 2016. "Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 217-231, May.
    5. Karplus, Valerie J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Babiker, Mustafa & Reilly, John M., 2013. "Should a vehicle fuel economy standard be combined with an economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions constraint? Implications for energy and climate policy in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 322-333.
    6. repec:aen:journl:1999si-a03 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pugh, Graham & Clarke, Leon & Marlay, Robert & Kyle, Page & Wise, Marshall & McJeon, Haewon & Chan, Gabriel, 2011. "Energy R&D portfolio analysis based on climate change mitigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 634-643, July.
    8. Jae Edmonds & Marshall Wise & Hugh Pitcher & Richard Richels & Tom Wigley & Chris Maccracken, 1997. "An integrated assessment of climate change and the accelerated introduction of advanced energy technologies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 311-339, December.
    9. Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon & Eom, Jiyong & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit & Kim, Son H. & Dirks, James & Jensen, Erik & Liu, Ying & Rice, Jennie & Schmidt, Laurel & Seiple, Timothy, 2014. "Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1077-1088.
    10. repec:aen:journl:32si1-a05 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Katherine Calvin & Marshall Wise & Page Kyle & Leon Clarke & Jae Edmonds, 2017. "A Hindcast Experiment Using The Gcam 3.0 Agriculture And Land-Use Module," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-21, February.
    12. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    13. Lu, Liwei & Preckel, Paul V. & Gotham, Douglas & Liu, Andrew L., 2016. "An assessment of alternative carbon mitigation policies for achieving the emissions reduction of the Clean Power Plan: Case study for the state of Indiana," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 661-672.
    14. Gokul C. Iyer & Leon E. Clarke & James A. Edmonds & Brian P. Flannery & Nathan E. Hultman & Haewon C. McJeon & David G. Victor, 2015. "Improved representation of investment decisions in assessments of CO2 mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 436-440, May.
    15. Marshall Wise & Kate Calvin & Page Kyle & Patrick Luckow & Jae Edmonds, 2014. "Economic And Physical Modeling Of Land Use In Gcam 3.0 And An Application To Agricultural Productivity, Land, And Terrestrial Carbon," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-22.
    16. repec:aen:journl:2006se_jaccard-a04 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Geoffrey Morrison & Sonia Yeh & Anthony Eggert & Christopher Yang & James Nelson & Jeffery Greenblatt & Raphael Isaac & Mark Jacobson & Josiah Johnston & Daniel Kammen & Ana Mileva & Jack Moore & Davi, 2015. "Comparison of low-carbon pathways for California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 545-557, August.
    18. Wang, Lining & Patel, Pralit L. & Yu, Sha & Liu, Bo & McLeod, Jeff & Clarke, Leon E. & Chen, Wenying, 2016. "Win–Win strategies to promote air pollutant control policies and non-fossil energy target regulation in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 244-253.
    19. Irene Scher & Jonathan Koomey, 2011. "Is accurate forecasting of economic systems possible?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 473-479, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silva Herran, Diego & Tachiiri, Kaoru & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, 2019. "Global energy system transformations in mitigation scenarios considering climate uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 119-131.
    2. Ou, Yang & Shi, Wenjing & Smith, Steven J. & Ledna, Catherine M. & West, J. Jason & Nolte, Christopher G. & Loughlin, Daniel H., 2018. "Estimating environmental co-benefits of U.S. low-carbon pathways using an integrated assessment model with state-level resolution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 482-493.
    3. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    4. Turner, Sean W.D. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Son H. & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, Jae, 2017. "Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2081-2090.
    5. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    6. Wise, Marshall & Hodson, Elke L. & Mignone, Bryan K. & Clarke, Leon & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Luckow, Patrick, 2015. "An approach to computing marginal land use change carbon intensities for bioenergy in policy applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 337-347.
    7. Mishra, Gouri Shankar & Zakerinia, Saleh & Yeh, Sonia & Teter, Jacob & Morrison, Geoff, 2014. "Mitigating climate change: Decomposing the relative roles of energy conservation, technological change, and structural shift," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 448-455.
    8. Hem H Dholakia & Vimal Mishra & Amit Garg, 2015. "Predicted Increases in Heat related Mortality under Climate Change in Urban India," Working Papers id:7115, eSocialSciences.
    9. George Katavoutas & Dimitra Founda & Gianna Kitsara & Christos Giannakopoulos, 2021. "Climate Change and Thermal Comfort in Top Tourist Destinations—The Case of Santorini (Greece)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Zhang, Aiping & Gao, Ji & Quan, Jinling & Zhou, Bo & Lam, Shu Kee & Zhou, Yuyu & Lin, Erda & Jiang, Kejun & Clarke, Leon E. & Zhang, Xuesong & Yu, Sha & Kyle, G.P. & Li, Hongbo & Zhou, Sheng & Gao, Sh, 2021. "The implications for energy crops under China's climate change challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Ana Ascenso & Bruno Augusto & Sílvia Coelho & Isilda Menezes & Alexandra Monteiro & Sandra Rafael & Joana Ferreira & Carla Gama & Peter Roebeling & Ana Isabel Miranda, 2024. "Assessing Climate Change Projections through High-Resolution Modelling: A Comparative Study of Three European Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-21, August.
    12. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 16-31.
    13. Pan, Xunzhang & Wang, Lining & Dai, Jiaquan & Zhang, Qi & Peng, Tianduo & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Analysis of China’s oil and gas consumption under different scenarios toward 2050: An integrated modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    14. Dirk-Jan van de Ven & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto, 2018. "The potential of behavioural change for climate change mitigation: a case study for the European Union," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 853-886, August.
    15. Ruffato-Ferreira, Vera & da Costa Barreto, Renata & Oscar Júnior, Antonio & Silva, Wanderson Luiz & de Berrêdo Viana, Daniel & do Nascimento, José Antonio Sena & de Freitas, Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos, 2017. "A foundation for the strategic long-term planning of the renewable energy sector in Brazil: Hydroelectricity and wind energy in the face of climate change scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1124-1137.
    16. Paltsev, Sergey & Chen, Y.-H. Henry & Karplus, Valerie & Kishimoto, Paul & Reilly, John & Loeschel, Andreas & von Graevenitz, Kathrine & Koesler, Simon, 2015. "Reducing CO₂ from cars in the European Union: Emission standards or emission trading?," CAWM Discussion Papers 84, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    17. Zhou, Sheng & Wang, Yu & Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon E. & Edmonds, James A., 2018. "Roles of wind and solar energy in China’s power sector: Implications of intermittency constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 22-30.
    18. Baker, Erin & Olaleye, Olaitan & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Decision frameworks and the investment in R&D," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 275-285.
    19. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2016. "Global energy model hindcasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 293-301.
    20. Zhang, Huijin & Hu, Wenbo, 2025. "Unveiling the reality of carbon reduction: Is the Paris Agreement turning the world green or just painting it green?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:208:y:2017:i:c:p:511-521. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.