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Simulating European wind power generation applying statistical downscaling to reanalysis data


  • González-Aparicio, I.
  • Monforti, F.
  • Volker, P.
  • Zucker, A.
  • Careri, F.
  • Huld, T.
  • Badger, J.


The growing share of electricity production from solar and mainly wind resources constantly increases the stochastic nature of the power system. Modelling the high share of renewable energy sources – and in particular wind power – crucially depends on the adequate representation of the intermittency and characteristics of the wind resource which is related to the accuracy of the approach in converting wind speed data into power values. One of the main factors contributing to the uncertainty in these conversion methods is the selection of the spatial resolution. Although numerical weather prediction models can simulate wind speeds at higher spatial resolution (up to 1×1km) than a reanalysis (generally, ranging from about 25km to 70km), they require high computational resources and massive storage systems: therefore, the most common alternative is to use the reanalysis data. However, local wind features could not be captured by the use of a reanalysis technique and could be translated into misinterpretations of the wind power peaks, ramping capacities, the behaviour of power prices, as well as bidding strategies for the electricity market. This study contributes to the understanding what is captured by different wind speeds spatial resolution datasets, the importance of using high resolution data for the conversion into power and the implications in power system analyses. It is proposed a methodology to increase the spatial resolution from a reanalysis. This study presents an open access renewable generation time series dataset for the EU-28 and neighbouring countries at hourly intervals and at different geographical aggregation levels (country, bidding zone and administrative territorial unit), for a 30year period taking into account the wind generating fleet at the end of 2015.

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  • González-Aparicio, I. & Monforti, F. & Volker, P. & Zucker, A. & Careri, F. & Huld, T. & Badger, J., 2017. "Simulating European wind power generation applying statistical downscaling to reanalysis data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 155-168.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:199:y:2017:i:c:p:155-168
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.04.066

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    Cited by:

    1. Garrido-Perez, Jose M. & Ordóñez, Carlos & Barriopedro, David & García-Herrera, Ricardo & Paredes, Daniel, 2020. "Impact of weather regimes on wind power variability in western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    2. Hirth, Lion & Mühlenpfordt, Jonathan & Bulkeley, Marisa, 2018. "The ENTSO-E Transparency Platform – A review of Europe’s most ambitious electricity data platform," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1054-1067.
    3. Olauson, Jon, 2018. "ERA5: The new champion of wind power modelling?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 322-331.
    4. Diogo Menezes & Mateus Mendes & Jorge Alexandre Almeida & Torres Farinha, 2020. "Wind Farm and Resource Datasets: A Comprehensive Survey and Overview," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(18), pages 1-1, September.
    5. Xiao, Qing & Zhou, Shaowu, 2018. "Probabilistic power flow computation considering correlated wind speeds," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 677-685.
    6. González-Aparicio, I. & Kapetaki, Z. & Tzimas, E., 2018. "Wind energy and carbon dioxide utilisation as an alternative business model for energy producers: A case study in Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 216-227.
    7. Ciupăgeanu, Dana-Alexandra & Lăzăroiu, Gheorghe & Barelli, Linda, 2019. "Wind energy integration: Variability analysis and power system impact assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1183-1196.
    8. Ju-Young Shin & Changsam Jeong & Jun-Haeng Heo, 2018. "A Novel Statistical Method to Temporally Downscale Wind Speed Weibull Distribution Using Scaling Property," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(3), pages 1-1, March.
    9. Debin Fang & Qiyu Ren & Qian Yu, 2018. "How Elastic Demand Affects Bidding Strategy in Electricity Market: An Auction Approach," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(1), pages 1-1, December.
    10. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2018. "On the inter-annual variability of wind energy generation – A case study from Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 845-854.
    11. Jin, Yuqing & Ju, Ping & Rehtanz, Christian & Wu, Feng & Pan, Xueping, 2018. "Equivalent modeling of wind energy conversion considering overall effect of pitch angle controllers in wind farm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 485-496.
    12. Rabbani, R. & Zeeshan, M., 2020. "Exploring the suitability of MERRA-2 reanalysis data for wind energy estimation, analysis of wind characteristics and energy potential assessment for selected sites in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1240-1251.


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