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Prospects for grid-connected solar PV in Kenya: A systems approach

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  • Rose, Amy
  • Stoner, Robert
  • Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio

Abstract

Capacity planners in developing countries frequently use screening curves and other system-independent metrics such as levelized cost of energy to guide investment decisions. This can lead to spurious conclusions about intermittent power sources such as solar and wind whose value may depend strongly on the characteristics of the system in which they are installed, including the overall generation mix and consumption patterns. We use a system-level optimization model for Kenya to evaluate the potential to use grid-connected solar PV in combination with existing reservoir hydropower to displace diesel generation. Different generation mixes in the years 2012 and 2017 are tested with a unit commitment model. Our results show that the value of high penetrations of solar in 2012 exceeds expected payments from the national feed-in-tariff. Under two 2017 generation mix and demand scenarios, the value of solar remains high if planned investments in low-cost geothermal, imported hydro, and wind power are delayed. Our system-scale methodology can be used to estimate the potential for intermittent renewable generation in other African countries with large reservoir hydro capacities or where there is a significant opportunity to displace costly diesel generation.

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  • Rose, Amy & Stoner, Robert & Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio, 2016. "Prospects for grid-connected solar PV in Kenya: A systems approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 583-590.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:161:y:2016:i:c:p:583-590
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.07.052
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    2. de la Hoz, Jordi & Martín, Helena & Miret, Jaume & Castilla, Miguel & Guzman, Ramon, 2016. "Evaluating the 2014 retroactive regulatory framework applied to the grid connected PV systems in Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 329-344.
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    10. Kanwal, S. & Khan, B. & Ali, S.M. & Mehmood, C.A., 2018. "Gaussian process regression based inertia emulation and reserve estimation for grid interfaced photovoltaic system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 865-875.
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    13. Trotter, Philipp A. & Maconachie, Roy & McManus, Marcelle C., 2018. "Solar energy's potential to mitigate political risks: The case of an optimised Africa-wide network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 108-126.
    14. Kanyarusoke, Kant E. & Gryzagoridis, Jasson & Oliver, Graeme, 2016. "Re-mapping sub-Sahara Africa for equipment selection to photo electrify energy poor homes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 240-250.
    15. Saranchimeg, Sainbold & Nair, Nirmal K.C., 2021. "A novel framework for integration analysis of large-scale photovoltaic plants into weak grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    16. Rehman, Shafiqur & Ahmed, M.A. & Mohamed, Mohand H. & Al-Sulaiman, Fahad A., 2017. "Feasibility study of the grid connected 10MW installed capacity PV power plants in Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 319-329.
    17. Ndwali, Kasereka & Njiri, Jackson G. & Wanjiru, Evan M., 2020. "Multi-objective optimal sizing of grid connected photovoltaic batteryless system minimizing the total life cycle cost and the grid energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1256-1265.
    18. Dominic Samoita & Charles Nzila & Poul Alberg Østergaard & Arne Remmen, 2020. "Barriers and Solutions for Increasing the Integration of Solar Photovoltaic in Kenya’s Electricity Mix," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-17, October.
    19. Edalati, Saeed & Ameri, Mehran & Iranmanesh, Masoud & Tarmahi, Hakimeh & Gholampour, Maysam, 2016. "Technical and economic assessments of grid-connected photovoltaic power plants: Iran case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 923-934.
    20. Lai, Chun Sing & McCulloch, Malcolm D., 2017. "Levelized cost of electricity for solar photovoltaic and electrical energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 191-203.
    21. Lai, Chun Sing & Locatelli, Giorgio & Pimm, Andrew & Tao, Yingshan & Li, Xuecong & Lai, Loi Lei, 2019. "A financial model for lithium-ion storage in a photovoltaic and biogas energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    22. Trotter, Philipp A. & McManus, Marcelle C. & Maconachie, Roy, 2017. "Electricity planning and implementation in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1189-1209.
    23. Kariuki, Boniface Wainaina & Sato, Tomonori, 2018. "Interannual and spatial variability of solar radiation energy potential in Kenya using Meteosat satellite," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 88-96.

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