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Prediction of photovoltaic and solar water heater diffusion and evaluation of promotion policies on the basis of consumers’ choices


  • Yamaguchi, Yohei
  • Akai, Kenju
  • Shen, Junyi
  • Fujimura, Naoki
  • Shimoda, Yoshiyuki
  • Saijo, Tatsuyoshi


This paper proposes an integrated analytical framework consisting of the following three steps: (1) investigation of consumers’ preferences, (2) prediction of technology diffusion by taking into account consumers’ preferences, and (3) estimation of CO2 emission reduction caused by the diffusion of the examined technology. By using this framework, this paper evaluates the policy measures implemented for disseminating photovoltaics and solar water heaters in terms of the contribution to reducing CO2 emissions from the residential sector. We investigated consumer preferences for these technologies as well as the effects of attributes such as installation cost, energy price, energy efficiency, and perception on consumers’ choices. Considering these effects, we developed a model that estimates the diffusion of these technologies into the residential sector of Japan through 2025 and the resulting CO2 emission reduction. We found that the policy measures for the diffusion of photovoltaics that reduce initial cost (e.g., subsidy programs) are more cost effective for reducing CO2 emission than those reducing users’ operating expenditure (e.g., feed-in tariff programs). For solar water heater to be able to reduce the CO2 emissions considerably, the public perception must be improved.

Suggested Citation

  • Yamaguchi, Yohei & Akai, Kenju & Shen, Junyi & Fujimura, Naoki & Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Saijo, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "Prediction of photovoltaic and solar water heater diffusion and evaluation of promotion policies on the basis of consumers’ choices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1148-1159.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:102:y:2013:i:c:p:1148-1159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.06.037

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Okamura, Tomo & Yamaguchi, Yohei & Yamaguchi, Yukio & Taniguchi, Ayako & Morikawa, Takao, 2010. "City-level energy and CO2 reduction effect by introducing new residential water heaters," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4880-4891.
    2. Geels, Frank W., 2004. "From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6-7), pages 897-920, September.
    3. Jager, Wander, 2006. "Stimulating the diffusion of photovoltaic systems: A behavioural perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1935-1943, September.
    4. Lund, P.D., 2010. "Fast market penetration of energy technologies in retrospect with application to clean energy futures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3575-3583, November.
    5. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Asahi, Takahiro & Taniguchi, Ayako & Mizuno, Minoru, 2007. "Evaluation of city-scale impact of residential energy conservation measures using the detailed end-use simulation model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1617-1633.
    6. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    7. Ku, Se-Ju & Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2010. "Willingness to pay for renewable energy investment in Korea: A choice experiment study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(8), pages 2196-2201, October.
    8. Banfi, Silvia & Farsi, Mehdi & Filippini, Massimo & Jakob, Martin, 2008. "Willingness to pay for energy-saving measures in residential buildings," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 503-516, March.
    9. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Yamaguchi, Yukio & Okamura, Tomo & Taniguchi, Ayako & Yamaguchi, Yohei, 2010. "Prediction of greenhouse gas reduction potential in Japanese residential sector by residential energy end-use model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1944-1952, June.
    10. Frank M. Bass & Trichy V. Krishnan & Dipak C. Jain, 1994. "Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(3), pages 203-223.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeong, Gicheol, 2013. "Assessment of government support for the household adoption of micro-generation systems in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 573-581.
    2. repec:eee:appene:v:197:y:2017:i:c:p:29-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Higgins, Andrew & McNamara, Cheryl & Foliente, Greg, 2014. "Modelling future uptake of solar photo-voltaics and water heaters under different government incentives," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 142-155.
    4. repec:eee:appene:v:212:y:2018:i:c:p:1377-1399 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. de la Hoz, Jordi & Martín, Helena & Miret, Jaume & Castilla, Miguel & Guzman, Ramon, 2016. "Evaluating the 2014 retroactive regulatory framework applied to the grid connected PV systems in Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 329-344.
    6. Balcombe, Paul & Rigby, Dan & Azapagic, Adisa, 2014. "Investigating the importance of motivations and barriers related to microgeneration uptake in the UK," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 403-418.
    7. Eva Fleiß & Stefanie Hatzl & Stefanie & Sebastian Seebauer & Alfred Posch & Alfred, 2016. "Money, not morale: A study of the drivers behind investment in photovoltaic citizen participation initiatives," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2016-02, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    8. Higgins, Andrew & Grozev, George & Ren, Zhengen & Garner, Stephen & Walden, Glenn & Taylor, Michelle, 2014. "Modelling future uptake of distributed energy resources under alternative tariff structures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 455-463.
    9. Sanders, Kelly T. & Webber, Michael E., 2015. "Evaluating the energy and CO2 emissions impacts of shifts in residential water heating in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 317-327.


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