Sustainability assessment of agricultural development in China: Water-carbon footprint perspective

China is a major agricultural producer, as agriculture is the basis for ensuring all stable and sustainable development. Starting from the sustainable development goals (SDGs), this study incorporates grain water-carbon footprint into the evaluation system, from four dimensions: economy, society, ecology, and environment, and evaluates the sustainability of agricultural development from 2000 to 2020 based on entropy weighting and CCD model, etc. In terms of grain water footprint, Heilongjiang, the main grain producing areas in Northeast China, has a larger water footprint, increased from 29.43 billion m3 to 78.55 billion m3. Henan located in Huang-Hai-Hai Plain has the largest carbon footprint, increased from 41.73 million tons to 66.17 million tons. The regions with higher agricultural sustainability index are concentrated in the southern China, with Guizhou having the highest agricultural sustainability index, increased from 0.24 to 0.52. As a major grain producing area, Heilongjiang’s agricultural sustainable development index shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing during the research period. About two-dimensional coupling coordination, the economic system has the highest coupling coordination degree with the social system, with Henan’s GR1 increased from 0.61 to 0.78. The four-dimensional coupling coordination degree in the southwest China is relatively large, the index of Sichuan increased from 0.39 to 0.65. Overall, China’s agriculture is transitioning from “quantity” to “quantity-quality-sustainability”, with provinces contributing to the realisation of sustainable development goals while providing basic guarantees. The research can provide reference for the adjustment of China’s agricultural development pattern and the input of agricultural production materials (water resources, fertilizers, etc.).